The Week That Was: August 29, 2016
A self-critical look at our advice about players moving at the trade deadline highlight this week’s Week That Was.
Eduardo Nunez: On August 1, we wrote “Well, Minnesota is not a great park in which to hit and neither is SF so no great change there. While no one saw Nunez coming this year, there is no question that he arrived. He will now play every day for a Giants team trying to win for the 4th time in the last 7 years. Thus far, Nuney has been money to the tune of a .295 average, 12 dingers and 28 SB. We know the speed is real. The advanced metrics say the average is real (neither contact rate nor BABIP is out of line) and those of us who saw him take Verlander yard in the ALCS a few years ago when Justin was Cy Verlander know the power is real. Those in NL only leagues should open their FAAB wallets!” Over the last two weeks his average is poor but the counting numbers are nice – 4 SB, 10 runs, 7 RBI and a dinger. To put that in perspective, on a yearlong scale, that is 52 SB, 130 runs, 91 RBI. Yeah, Nunez is producing in SF. If there is a Nuney owner in your league focused on the average, make an offer and make it quick!
Ivan Nova: On August 1, we wrote “Could this be the latest Ray Searage reclamation project? Remember what Ray did for former Nova teammate A.J. Burnett? I think he can do the same for Nova. Why? First, Nova’s velocity is back to pre-TJS form. Second, Pittsburgh is not in the AL East. The park is friendlier and so are the opponents (it is not fun pitching in Baltimore, Boston or Toronto). Third, Nova already throws those grounders that Searage loves as his 54+% GB rate this year attests. Finally, when the 21% HR/FB goes down as it should now that Nova has escaped the AL East, you could have a bargain on your hands. Invest now while you can.” Sunday Nova went 6 innings of 1 run ball while walking none and striking out 4. I hope you invested! Since joining the Pirates, Nova has 4 of 5 quality starts and a ridiculous 22-1 K/BB ratio. Assuming the hamstring is ok, you want in on the Nova-Searage partnership!
Jay Bruce: On August 1 we wrote: “Hmmm, I have a lot of friends who are Mets fan so I hope this works out but I am not so sure. First, his .265 average is way above what he has done the last two years. If he starts to press with his new team, that average could plummet back to the .220s. Second, Bruce has hit only .230 or so over the last 30 days. That does not bode well. Finally, Cincy is a much better hitters’ park than Citi so some of those dingers may not leave the yard. In all, I think Bruce will help the Mets more than he helps your fantasy team if you have to blow your whole FAAB budget to get him. Proceed with caution.” In the last two weeks, Bruce has hit a paltry .143 with no dingers and 1 RBI. With one hit in the last week, thing are hardly looking better. I hope you exercised that caution.
Andrew Miller: On August 1, we wrote “The only lefty nastier than Miller is his former teammate Aroldis Chapman. Miller’s stats are sick: 77K in 45 innings with a miniscule 0.77 WHIP. When you get down the advanced stats, the numbers are equally scary: 16+% swinging strike rate and a GB rate approaching 53%. Move over Cody Allen – you are good but not this good. Invest with complete confidence.” Well we got that one wrong. Miller has pitched well – posting 7 innings of one hit, .043 WHIP ball over the last two weeks – but has not gotten the predicted saves. Without the saves, Miller probably has not returned the FAAB investment.
Jonathan Lucroy: On August 1, we wrote “Texas scored big with one of the best catchers in baseball. After a down year last year, Lucroy has returned to prominence with a .299 average, 13 HR and 50 RBI. My only concern is that it is tough for a catcher to learn new pitchers, new opposing hitters and concentrate on his offense all at the same time. I like Lucroy much better for 2017 than I do for the last two months of 2016. That said, if you are in an AL-only league, there is no doubt Lucroy will be an upgrade for your team.” Well, in the last two weeks, the Texas backstop has hit under .250 but his OBP is around .350 over that span and he has added 3 dingers and 8 RBI. The promised upgrade occurred but some offensive struggle has manifested – as predicted – likely because of the adjustment to learning the new pitchers and having to call games in a new league.
Josh Reddick: On August 1, we wrote, “Reddick is a player I have liked for a long time. He has now overcome injury and evolved as a hitter as his .290+ average and 10+% walk rate indicate. Indeed, despite all the distraction of trade talks, Reddick has stayed focused and hit .333 over the last week. Oh, and when you add in that any park is better for a hitter than Oakland, you have a potential nice add for those in NL only leagues. I like Nunez better this year but Reddick makes a nice prize too.” Reddick has been anything but a prize. Translation – we blew this one. Over the last two weeks, Reddick has hit .167 with no HR and no RBI. It just makes you wonder how long they can keep Yasiel Puig on the farm.
Matt Kemp: On August 1, we wrote: “Wow, out of the frying pan and into the fire. San Diego is a dumpster fire and so is Atlanta. Given that Kemp has not changed leagues, his fantasy FAAB value is not nearly that of some of the others above. Yes, he has hit for power but a sub .300 OBP and a nearly 7-1 K/BB ratio says the cliff is near and he could easily fall off in the wasteland that will be Atlanta August baseball. Be careful.” Kemp has actually been what he was before the trade. The power is still there but the OBP over the last month is more in the .330 range than below .300. If I am honest, I would have to say we missed this one.
And now the moment you well, may or may not be waiting for, the Baron of Bottom of the Page pontificates -- a/k/a Schultz says: “One of the biggest stories of the past couple weeks has been the emergence of Gary Sanchez as the Yankees modern day version of Kevin Maas. (Schultz will leave it to The Overlord, a devout Yankees fan, to explain how Schultz just threw shade and hopefully, Bobby Colton will be around to define throwing shade for him). In just three weeks, Sanchez has racked up 11 home runs, 21 RBIs while hitting .400. To put that in perspective, despite playing for 5 times as long, Brian McCann, the presumptive Yankee backstop has hit 16 home runs, driven in 50 and hit .234. From a roto-perspective, there's little advice to give here. If he's on your team, you're happy; if he's not, you're not going to get him. Even though Sanchez' pace is unsustainable, he's a keeper, both in real and roto-life.
In lieu of providing useful roto-advice, we do like to entertain here in the basement of The Week That Was. In that vein, perhaps, you will find some of these facts amusing. While trying to keep pace with Sanchez, former Yankee Russell Martin has hit 6 home runs, driven in 16 and hit .405 over the past two weeks. After coming out of the gates at a leisurely pace, Astros' uber-prospect Alex Bregman has hit 5 home runs and hit .333 since the ides of August. Over that same period, Brandon Moss - the roto-afterthought - has also slugged 5 homers and hit .326.
Probably also worth noting that Trea Turner's 17 steals and .341 average since being called up should make people question whether Dusty Baker's predilection for veterans requires an intervention. Finally, who was August's best starting pitcher? Danny Duffy, who went 5-1 with a 2.51 ERA, .98 WHIP and 39 strikeouts over 43 innings. Like Sanchez, you aren't getting him if you don't already have him. If you have him, congratulations for having your chips down when the roulette wheel finally stopped on Duffy's number.”
Response: Cool stuff in many ways!
Player News
Kyren Paris hit a two-run homer in Wednesday’s win for the Angels over the Blue Jays.
That’s the first homer for Paris since April 9 when he went deep twice against Tampa Bay and caused everyone to lose all sense of rational thought. The 23-year-old did also single and walk to improve his on-base percentage to .311,, while the homer bumps his slugging mark to .378. There is long-term upside in Paris with flashes that suggest he can be a fantasy option. Fantasy managers should still absolutely looking elsewhere for options up the middle.
Jorge Soler hit a three-run double in the bottom of the ninth to give the Angels a 5-4 win over the Blue Jays on Wednesday.
Trent Grisham went 1-for-1 with a game-tying two-run home run in the eighth inning of a 4-3 win over the Padres on Wednesday.
While the Yankees won this game on a walk-off in the 10th inning, Grisham’s game-tying home run in the eighth was the biggest moment. He came on as a pinch-hitter for Jorbit Vibas against the usually stout Jason Adam and smashed a two-strike changeup into the right field seats. This clutch shot will only continue to push Grisham’s playing time in the right direction after he just started eight of the last 10 games, hit either first or second in each, and already has 10 homers in 31 games played this season.
Jeff Hoffman blew a save and picked up a loss Wednesday against the Angels.
Devin Williams struck out three batters with one walk and hit another in a scoreless 10th inning to earn the win against the Padres on Wednesday.
The Yankees entrusted Williams with the all important 10th inning and the inherited ghost runner on second base after their dramatic comeback. While he loaded the bases and had some tense moments, he left the inning unscathed and opened the door for them to win it right after. It should be noted that Luke Weaver came on for what were the most important outs of this game at the time, after Ian Hamilton walked two to begin the eighth inning and Weaver allowed both of those inherited runners to score. He was called upon as the fireman though and will likely get the next save opportunity. Still, this was a massive step in the right direction for Williams.
Max Fried allowed five hits and one run with no walks and eight strikeouts over seven innings in a no-decision against the Padres on Wednesday.
Fried’s excellent season continued as he set down the Padres easily besides for a mammoth solo home run by Jackson Merrill. It was no matter though, as they rarely threatened otherwise and Fried continued to find his strikeout stuff. This was his fourth outing of the year with at least seven strikeouts, a mark he only hit 10 times last season in 29 starts. Fried with a strikeout rate that’s better than league average – which is where he’s at right now – is a clear top-10 pitcher in fantasy baseball. He’s set for a two-start week coming up against the Mariners and Mets.