A look back to players we believed back in April, and an assessment of whether our beliefs were justified, highlight this week’s Week That Was:

Kyle Gibson:  In April we wrote: “Kyle Gibson was AWFUL Friday going just three innings while allowing seven runs, nine base runners and striking out only one.  What is wrong?  Ground ball percentage is still elite. Swinging strike rate is basically holding steady, HR/FB is not out of whack, and his BABIP is not crazy high.  The velocity is down about 1 MPH which is not good and the strand rate shows some bad luck at around 65 percent, but those are not enough to yield the hideously ugly 6.10 ERA and 1.74 WHIP.  Honestly, I just do not know.  Two of his four starts have been at home and those have both been pretty solid.  Perhaps he can keep the home streak going against the Indians this week.  Many will give up on Gibson but I will not.  There are just not that many pitchers with his GB/SWK profile you can get cheap who pitch in a pitcher’s park.”  I hope you did not give up on Gibson.  In his last two starts, he has 13.6 innings, 13K, 3BB and only 2 ER.  Indeed, since he came off the shelf, he has an ERA under 4.00 and a WHIP of 1.23.  Stay the course and chalk one up for us.

C.J. Cron:  In April we wrote: “C.J. Cron finally hit his first dinger of the year on Friday night 'raising' his average to .161.  Yes, you read that correctly.  OK, after your eyes stop watering from looking at such an ugly number, consider the upside.  First, Cron is only 26 and has hit 27 dingers in just over 600 AB before his 26th birthday.  Second, the Angels as a team have not hit at all.  With Trout and Pujols anchoring the lineup, that is sure to change – a change that will help Cron.  Third, Cron’s contact and walk rates are up substantially but he has been super unlucky with a BABIP well below .200.  His bad luck will change, too.  The bottom line here is that you should not panic as this upwardly mobile youngster will help you if you have some patience.”  I hope you listened here as well.  That .161 back in April is a distant memory as Cron has raised his average all the way to .282.  This will continue.  The K rate is down, BB rate is up and the BABIP shows no real luck involved.  Another in the win column!

Jeff Samardzija:  In April we wrote: “Jeff Samardzija allowed one earned run on six hits while striking out five over 7.2 innings.  This was the strong start the Shark needed to get into a groove in SF.  Yes, the 19 K in 27 innings does not turn anyone on, but a 3.00 ERA and 1.26 WHIP is not too shabby.  When you consider that Shark is still averaging close to 94 MPH on his fastball, pitches in a pitcher's park and is inducing far more groundballs than in years past, you really have little reason to worry.  Is he an SP1 in fantasy?  No.  Will he prove very valuable if you hold the line all year?  Yessir!”  Well, this one is a mixed bag.  The ERA has gone up but the WHIP has come down.  On balance, I think we have to call this a tie but I have faith and will keep that faith.

Justin Verlander:  In April we wrote: “Justin Verlander pitched well Friday going seven innings while giving up just two earned runs and striking out 10 Indians.  If you look at the 5.79 ERA and 1.37 WHIP, you are likely to conclude there are problems in Motor City.  However, those stats are skewed by the one bad outing against the Pirates.  While Verlander is throwing about 1 MPH slower than last year, I am still not worried.  He has been a bit unlucky in the strand department (under 65 percent) despite maintaining last year’s double digit swinging strike rate.  Comerica is a good place to pitch, the defense behind him is pretty good (especially up the middle) and the Tigers will score often which raises the odds for wins.  He is not what he was, but who among us is?  Even this new version is very much worth keeping.”  I hope you kept the faith.  Over the last 60 days, Verlander has thrown 82 innings, notched more than a K an inning with very respectable ERA (3.62) and WHIP (1.02) numbers.  Win!

Martin Perez:   In April we wrote: “Martin Perez pitched 5.2 innings and gave up five hits, five runs while registering only two Ks.  Yuck.  On the year, Perez has a 4.50 ERA and is striking out, well, no one.  Will he be a big K guy?  No.  Will his ERA and WHIP fall to solid levels?  I think so.  The elite groundball rate is still there, the swinging strike rate is rising and the velocity is actually ticking up.  Have some patience with this solid lefty in his second year post TJS if you are in a 15-teamer or an AL-only.  I will.”  Well, the 3.39 ERA on the year is very good for the AL but the 1.37 WHIP is not.  The problem is that Perez has been striking out no one.  Over the last 60 days he has about a 4.5K per 9 rate.  The ERA did come down as predicted but the K rate is so much lower than expected that I will call this at best, a wash.

Justin Smoak:   In April we wrote: “So far, not so good.  Despite playing for an offensive juggernaut, Smoak has no HR, one RBI and two runs scored on the year.  However, there is light at the end of the fantasy tunnel.  With Chris Colabello suspended for 80 games, Smoak should see a lot more time.  Last year Smoak hit 18 HR in under 300 AB.  There is no reason to think he cannot put up similar power numbers now that the opportunity to play most every day is upon him.  Oh, and for those in OBP leagues, you are already enjoying that almost .500 OBP number.”  The power has come back as predicted as Smoak jacked nine longballs since this article was written. 

Avisail Garcia:   In April we wrote: “With his collar on Saturday, Garcia is now hitting a paltry .135.  Yes, even worse than Cron.  Why am I holding on you ask?  Well, admittedly, I am less sure of this one than some of the above but here goes.  First, Garcia is only 25 and already has over 1000 AB in the show.  Second, his BB rate is actually on the rise – a sign of maturity from a young hitter.  Third, he has been insanely unlucky with a BABIP of well under .200.  Finally, his hard and medium contact rates are also on the rise – a good fact and one that makes his BABIP even harder to explain.  Better times are ahead.”  Hmm, the BABIP is now .313 instead of that sub .200 rate.  That helps to explain how Garcia has raised his average over 100 points in the last two months.  .243 is hardly exciting overall but if you invested back in late April, you bought low and likely earned a profit.  Nice work.

And now the moment you, well, may or may not be waiting for, the Baron of Bottom of the Page pontificates aka Schultz says: “An overused, hackneyed trope in the roto-journalism world is to refer to a once ballyhooed prospect that has lost their luster due to their failure to immediately meet inflated expectations as a "post-hype superstar." It allows the roto-intelligentsia to sound erudite (unlike Schultz, using lots of big words this week) for remembering and recognizing true talent while affording the roto-hoi polloi a wonderful opportunity to acquire immensely skilled player at bargain-basement prices. In contrast, the no-hype superstar - and using the word superstar is quite a stretch - isn't even a term found in the common roto-parlance. These no-hypsters tend to be low round draft picks that are brought to big leagues with little fanfare and are often thought of as nothing more than place fillers. However, recognizing these unsung heroes can be the key to climbing to the top of your roto-league.

In the worlds of Kipnises, Canos and Kinslers, no one in their right mind targets DJ LeMahieu on draft day. After hitting .301, stealing 23 bases and driving in 61 runs in 2015, the collective roto-world (Schultz can't avoid the nagging thought that that is simply an archaic term) shrugged their shoulders and wrote it off as a Colorado outlier. While the Colorado part may have some merit, it bears noting that LeMahieu still plays in Colorado. His .328 batting average, which puts him 3rd in the NL behind the implausible Nats duo of Daniel Murphy and Wilson Ramos, isn't a sign of a continued fluke. Rather, it's the type of low investment, high reward player that should remain on the roto-radar.

The patron saint of the no-hype All-Stars would be Martin Prado. Usually thought of as valuable for his ridiculously varied position eligibility, over the last decade, the career .293 hitter has been as productive as he is unheralded. With an average always hovering around .300 - usually over - and sporadic production in the counting-categories, it's unclear why any roto-team wouldn't want him as their third infielder or fifth outfielder. 

Roto-readers love adages and one that often applies is the moral from The Tortoise & The Hare - slow and steady wins the race. For the second half of the season, you can pack your team with the highly touted roto-rabbits that make your roster look roto-sexy and dripping with potential or you can build around the roto-turtles that make no one jealous -- except for the teams that are behind you in the standings.”

Response:  I am just going to leave all that heady stuff right where it is and wish Schultz, our readers and all of America happy Independence Day.  Treasure the freedoms we have as they are truly special.