For some fun, I thought I would pull out some of the predictions from week 1 of the Week That Was -- a full six months ago -- to see how we did. Here goes:
Robinson Cano: On April 11, I wrote: “Loyal readers know I cannot help but write about Robbie Cano – my roto crush. Did team CTW roster Cano in three leagues? Yep. Are we helplessly biased when it comes to the former Yankee? Yep again. However, Cano has more than earned the love and continues to do so again this year. Through Saturday, the second-sacker has a 1,223 OPS and a 21 game hitting streak. Fluke? I think not. After all, in the second half last year, Cano was a monster hitting .333 with 15 HR, 49 RBI and a 927 OPS. If there is a Cano owner in your league who thinks s/he is selling high, jump in with both feet. Cano was and continues to be a roto-stud.” Ca-ching. Robbie was simply awesome all year and by the time the season ended, Robbie had 38 HR, 103 RBI, 107 runs, a .298 average and a .350 OBP. Oh and if I can be snarky (and I can as it is my column), Robbie only hit 29 more dingers than Ellsbury and scored 36 more runs. Now who was the genius that thought it made sense to pay Ellsbury Robbie’s money? Ugh. Grade for this preseason prediction: A++
Eugenio Suarez: On April 11, I wrote: “Eugenio Suarez went 2-for-3 with 3 RBI, 3 runs scored and his third dinger of the year Saturday to lead the Reds to a win over the Pirates (then added a fourth dinger Sunday while I was finishing this draft). While I doubt Suarez will remain this hot, he is a player to watch and one who could well be for real. Last year, Suarez hit a cool .280 with 13 HR in just 372 AB. Suarez will not turn 25 until mid-year. That means his power is still growing – a nice thought for a young player in a hitters’ park on a team that can afford to be patient since they are going nowhere in 2016. Invest.” Well, the power did indeed show up as the 21 dingers will attest. When you add in the 70+ runs and rbi and 11 swipes, you have a tidy profit if you invested. Yes, he hit only .248 but if you are looking toward next year, you should consider that his BABIP was 14 points below career average so that batting average should rise a bit. Grade for this preseason prediction: B+
Avisail Garcia: On April 11, I wrote: “If you look up post-hype sleeper in the dictionary, you will see Avisail Garcia. Well, he woke up Saturday going 2-4 with a three-run homer and two runs scored. Remember when Garcia was dubbed little Miggy (because of his apparent similar appearance to super-star Miguel Cabrera)? Who could live up to that? Yup, no one. However, Garcia need not be nearly that good to help your team win a title. Given that he was supposed to ride the pine and was only rescued by Adam LaRoche’s surprise retirement, Garcia is undervalued. With over 1000 AB under his belt at the tender age of 25, Garcia is a prime prospect to take a leap to the next level. Grab him from an unsuspecting owner now before it is too late.” It was an awful early season for little Miggy and he never quite recovered but 12 dingers in just over 400 AB so there is hope. That said – Grade for this prediction: C
Rick Porcello: On April 11, I wrote: “Considering that he was on the road against the stacked Blue Jay lineup, Rick Porcello pitched pretty well. On the day Saturday, Porcello gave up four runs on seven hits over six innings. However, on the bright side, he mowed down 7 against only one walk. I admit that I sat Porcello for this start but I firmly believed he is undervalued this year. His 4.92 ERA and 1.36 WHIP from 2015 are ugly indeed. However, the advanced metrics paint a different picture. The 67% strand rate, 14% HR per flyball rate and .337 BABIP say he was unlucky. The xFIP backs that up as it was more than a run lower than his ERA at 3.72. When you add in the fact that Porcello actually threw harder last year and that his xFIP in the second half was a very solid 3.23, you have all the makings of a bounce back season. I am buying. You?” Yeah me! All Porcello did was go 22-4 with a 3.15 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 189 strikeouts. Cy Porcello! Grade for this prediction: A++
CC Sabathia: On April 11, I wrote: “C.C. Sabathia pitched well Saturday, giving up just three runs on four hits against a pretty strong Tigers lineup. When you consider that team CTW nabbed CC on reserve in the Tout Wars 12 team AL only, you realize how little faith folks had in the big man. Personally, I think that judgment was a bit hasty. Yes, I know that a 4.50 ERA is not helpful and that a 1.33 WHIP is well, just as bad. However, people forget that his xFIP says he pitched better at 3.99 and that CC kept his solid GB rate and swinging strike rate. Of course, I am not saying he will be the CC of old – he won’t. However, in AL-only leagues, he will be a valuable commodity who will win a bunch of games with the Yankee offense supporting him.” Yeah, yeah, I am a Yankee homer. Guilty. That said, 150K, an ERA under 4.00 (just as his xFIP predicted) is AL-only value at the back end of a rotation that roto championship teams need. Grade for this prediction: B+
Mike Pelfrey: On April 11, I wrote: “Mike Pelfrey was atrocious Saturday. While working slowly and letting his fielders freeze, the accidental import allowed six runs on eight hits over just 3 2/3 innings. Seriously, I do not understand this signing at all. Do not be tempted to invest in Pelfrey as the Tigers did. Quick quiz: When was the last time Pelfrey had a WHIP of 1.35 or less. Answer: NEVER. Question 2: How many times has Pelfrey posted an ERA of 4.25 or better in his 10 years? Answer: two. Question 3: How many times in 10 years has Pelfrey posted a K rate of 6 per 9 innings or better? Answer: NEVER. Shall I go on? Didn’t think so.” This was too easy frankly. An ERA over 5, a WHIP over 1.70 and 56K against 46BB is a dumpster fire. If you got burned it was your own fault. Grade for this prediction: Too Easy to earn a grade.
And now the moment you well, may or may not be waiting for, the Baron of Bottom of the Page pontificates a/k/a Schultz says: It’s just not a season that was here at The Week That Was unless it closes with lists summing up the year that was. So with no further ado – but with much better grammar – here are the 2016 ALL-SCHULTZ AWARDS.
The 2016 WILL BYERS TEAM (or for non-Stranger Things fans, we’ll just call it the 2016 LAZARUS TEAM). This team has long been written off for dead but has somehow remerged with great significance but it’s quite possible no one took notice.
C: Evan Gattis (HOUS) – With the move to the outfield, Gattis rightfully fell off of everyone’s radar due to his inability to consistently hit the ball anywhere other than over the fence. However, with 55 games behind the plate, his 32 homers loom large, even with a .251 average.
1B: Wil Myers (SD) – The former AL Rookie of the Year was well on his way to leaving a legacy of solely being the answer to a trivia question (and a hard one at that). Although he faded a bit down the stretch, his 28 homers, 28 steals were no fluke. A poor man’s Goldschmidt if there ever was going to be one.
2B: Jedd Gyorko (STL) – Instead of being the once-touted prospect to go to San Diego to fade into obscurity, Gyorko moved to the Midwest and hit a surprising 30 home runs. A miraculous second half may have saved his career.
SS: Jonathan Villar (MIL) – The original script had Villar going down in history as the shortstop moved out of Houston to accommodate the emergence of Carlos Correa. Instead, it’s been rewritten where Villar’s .284, 19 homers and league leading 60+ steals makes him a top-10 roto-stud.
3B: Justin Turner (LA) – The former Mets utility player flourished in Los Angeles at the ripe old age of 31, spending good parts of the summer keeping pace with Kris Bryant. His .275, 28 homers and 90 RBIs came extremely inexpensively and to mix a metaphor, came completely out of left field.
OF: Matt Kemp (SD/ATL) – The luster had been off the Matt Kemp rose for quite some time and many have sunk their roto-ship counting upon the former five category superstar to relive his glory years. He may never run again, but his .269, 35 HR, 108 RBI, 89 runs may qualify as a legitimate renaissance.
OF: Rajai Davis (CLE) – Never entirely a lackluster roto-option, Davis usually fails to go coast-to-coast because he’s approximately 58-years-old and has been in the major leagues since the late 60s. As a key Francona free agent signing, Davis helped pace the Central Division winning Tribe with 12 homers and an American League leading 43 steals.
OF: Melvin Upton (SD/TOR) – Ostensibly signed by the Padres as a favor to his little brother, it seemed entirely plausible that Upton stopped referring to himself as B.J. in the hopes that people might think he was a different person altogether. Although front-loaded, Upton regained credibility with a 20 HR, 27 SB revival.
SP: Rick Porcello (BOS) – The conventional wisdom had Porcello pegged as yet-another prospect that failed to live up to expectations; his 2015 season being a dreadful nightmare. His 22-4, 3.15 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 189 strikeouts may not only earn him the AL Cy Young, it will unquestionably lead to someone overpaying for him next April.
RP: Ryan Madson (OAK) – To the uninitiated, it’s unlikely that any connection would be made between the former Phillies’ prospect and the guy residing in the A’s bullpen. After missing three years due to injury, he raked up the most improbable 30 saves by someone not named Jeanmar.
THE 2016 TRUMP-TASTIC TEAM. Just when you think the members of this team may comport themselves as a usable member of society, they go tweet nonsense at 3:30 a.m. instead.
C: Matt Wieters (BAL) – In the tradition of Charles Johnson, Ben Davis, Carlos Hernandez and Geovanny Soto, it’s time we collectively agreed that the Matt Weiters-roto-stud thing is never going to happen. Exhibit “F” – .241, 15 HRs and 46 runs scored.
1B: Adrian Gonzalez (LAD) – A strange roto-year for first basemen as most either lived up to or far exceeded expectations. Short of vastly overestimating Joe Mauer, A Gonz’ 90 RBIs likely didn’t make up for his .273, 18 HRs and 69 runs.
2B: Dee Gordon (MIA) – The heartfelt emotion of his sole home run of the season will unquestionably overshadow his half-year suspension, .264 average and 14 RBIs. Nonetheless, Gordon’s failure to meet even the most modest of expectations caused many roto-teams to underperform.
SS: Jhonny Peralta (STL) – Once a reliable source of roto-stats, Peralta’s early season injury opened the door to the emergence of Aledmys Diaz and his late season struggles gave Jedd Gyorko the opportunity to hit 23 second half home runs.
3B: Miguel Sano (MIN) – The Twins’ slugger was so impressive in 2015 that it was universally believed that he would take the next step in 2016. Normally a .233, 24 HR, 63 RBI season wouldn’t be a depressing sophomore season. For Sano, it was a bitter pill.
OF: Andrew McCutchen (PIT) – One of the first outfielders off the board due to the perennial 40-40 potential, the Pirates phenom was simply emblematic of the Buc’s disappointing season. The 24 HRs and 77 RBIs were what was expected of his first half, not entire year. The .255 average, Yikes!
OF: Jacoby Ellsbury (NYY) – A much ballyhooed long-term signing by the Bronx Bombers, the only thing scarier to Yankees’ fans than his .261 9 HR, 56 RBI effort is that he’s contractually bound to be a Yankee until 2021.
OF: Jose Bautista (TOR) – Quite possibly the only player on the list to inspire legitimate Schadenfreude, the once-fearsome Joey Bats hit .233 with 22 homers and 69 RBIs. It’s entirely possible that injuries have taken their toll on the once-mighty home run king from up north.
SP: Dallas Keuchel (HOU) – While recognition should be given to Adam Wainwright and Shelby Miller for plummeting well-below expectations, there were warning signs. Normally, you should not go wrong by banking on the defending Cy Young winner. Yet, if you did, you were rewarded with a 4.55 ERA and 1.29 WHIP and likely rebuilt for 2017 around others.
RP: Jonathan Papelbon (WAS) – Relying upon one of the decade’s most-dependable closers pitching the 9th inning for a team projected to be one of the best in baseball is good strategy. It would have failed you miserably here as Papelbon’s 19 saves failed to counteract his relative uselessness otherwise.
THE 2016 USAIN BOLT TEAM. No one finishes stronger than Usain Bolt. Like the Jamaican sprinter, this team picked up speed as the finish line neared.
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C: Yadier Molina (STL) – One of the reasons the Cardinals refused to fade gently into that good night was because their captain refused to let them do so, hitting .360 after the All-Star break.
1B: Joey Votto (CIN) – Unquestionably, the best hitter in baseball over the second half of the season managed to do so in absolute obscurity. Quick, if you knew that Votto hit .411 with 15 HRs, 55 RBIs and scored 53 runs, then admit that you’re lying about answering that question right.
2B: Brian Dozier (MIN) – Well, maybe there was a question as to whether Votto was the best hitter in the second half. The Twins second baseman launched a ridiculous 28 home runs after the All-Star break while driving in 36 and stealing 11. Oh yes, he hit .291 too.
SS: Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM) – While the Mets pitching staff systematically fell apart as the season wore on, the former Indians’ star helped shoulder the load Yoenis Cespedes couldn’t carry. His .310 with 11 HRs, 33 RBIs and 4 steals are a large part of the reason the Mets are hosting a game on Wednesday.
3B Adrian Beltre (TEX) – Has he been around long enough that we can call him the ageless Adrian Beltre? Just when you’ve given up on him, he comes back with a vengeance. His .322, 20 HR, 49 RBI second half resulted in the American League title going through Arlington.
OF: Justin Upton (DET) – Taking a while to get used to the Motor City, the younger Upton got off to a miserably slow start. Once getting comfortable, he finished strong with a .265, 22 HR, 49 RBI second half.
OF: Hanley Ramirez (BOS) – One of baseball’s streakier hitters, H Ram awoke after the All Star break to the tune of .283, 21 HRs and 62 RBIs. Unlike the Yanks and Ellsbury, Sox fans may not be angst-ridden over the fact that Ramirez’ is signed through 2019.
OF: Hernan Perez (MIL) – An unknown and unheralded utilityman, Perez erupted in the second half with 9 HRs and 24 steals . . . and no one took much notice. There may not to be a ton to get excited about in 2017 but Perez likely helped many roto-owners stay apace in the hunt for their roto-title.
SP: Kyle Hendricks/Jon Lester (CHC) – What is it in the water in Chicago? Last year, Jake Arrieta was unhittable during the second half; this year neither Hendricks nor Lester could be touched. Hendricks went 9-2 with a 1.36 ERA and .89 ERA while Lester kept pace with a 1.76 ERA, .93 WHIP and a 10-1 record.
RP: Zach Britton (BALT) – Five closers saved 20 games in the second half. Only Britton failed to blow one. AND he only gave up a single earned run. If a closer was ever going to win the Cy Young again, it’s this year and it’s Britton. In a crowded AL East, not blowing a game loomed extremely large.
THE 2016 ALL-2017 TEAM. No one on this team started the 2016 season in the major leagues. Not only will they be starting in the big leagues in 2017, they should be starting in your roto-lineup.
C: Gary Sanchez (NYY) – Once the fire sale took place in the Bronx, the Baby Bomber ushered in the new era of Yankee baseball by hitting .298 with 20 home runs in only 198 at bats.
1B: Tommy Joseph (PHI) – Crashing the victory lap for Ryan Howard (that was overshadowed by the David Ortiz victory lap), the converted catcher hit 21 homers in only 315 at-bats. If anyone wanted to substitute Josh Bell in here, the Pirates’ youngster will be a fixture in the Buccos 2017 lineup.
2B: Trea Turner (WAS) – Bizarrely, the Nationals kept Turner in the minor leagues until well after the All-Star break. Upon getting the call, his .342, 13 HRs and 32 steals put him squarely into the first round of next year’s draft. This may be the next Troutian savior of roto-baseball.
SS: Tim Anderson (CHW) – Coming at the tail end of the wave of young shortstops that have hit the shores of MLB, the White Sox rookie may not have caused much of a sensation simply by not immediately becoming a bone fide stud.
3B: Alex Bregman (HOU) – Selected immediately after Dansby Swanson in last year’s draft, the Astros rushed their top prospect to the majors alongside Carlos Correa. Bregman didn’t quite light it up in his first go-round but, then again, he only 22.
OF: Hunter Renfroe (SD) – In his brief September audition, I think it’s safe to say that Renfroe got the part. On a young, reforming Padres team, Renfroe will be the power-hitting monster in the middle of the lineup.
OF: David Dahl (COL) – It never hurts to be a hitter in the Colorado Rockies’ lineup. After demolishing the pitching in the Pacific Coast League, Dahl’s .318, 7 home run, 24 RBI rookie season may not have set off fireworks but it’s cause to be excited for the future.
OF: Tyler Naquin (CLE) – Naquin bounced back and forth between the minor leagues and Ohio over the first couple months of the season but once it was determined that Michael Brantley wasn’t going to play a role in this year’s campaign, the first round draft pick laid his claim to the Indians’ outfield and won’t be leaving it soon.
SP: Sean Manaea (OAK)/Michael Fullmer (DET)/ Alex Reyes (STL) – If either of these three came cheap as a free agent pickup in a 2016 keeper league, they will carry you significantly in 2017.
RP: Edwin Diaz (SEA) – The wheels started falling off the cart at the end of the season but if doesn’t anchor the Mariners’ bullpen well into the future; he’ll at least do so in 2017.
As a final word, my thanks to Glenn for letting me say things throughout the season and my undying gratitude to those of you that actually read what Schultz has to say.
See you in 2017.
GO TRIBE!!!!!
Response: It is I and all the readers at fantasy alarm that should be thanking Schultz for his hard work, wit and sometimes accurate predictions (I couldn’t resist). Oh and given that the Tribe are playing the Red Sox, the old saying applies – who is a Yankee fan’s second favorite team? Whoever is playing against the Sox!
Seriously, thank you all for spending some time with us each week at the Week That Was. We look forward to more fantasy baseball as soon as the calendar turns to 2017!