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Welcome to the newest edition of the Weekly MLB Preview!
GAME BREAKDOWN GRID FOR WEEK 18 (8/1 to 8/7)
| TEAM | # GAMES | HOME | AWAY | VS LEFT | VS RIGHT |
| Orioles | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| Yankees | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| Red Sox | 7 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 |
| Blue Jays | 7 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 |
| Rays | 7 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| Tigers | 6 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| Royals | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| White Sox | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| Indians | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| Twins | 7 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 |
| Angels | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| Mariners | 7 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 |
| Athletics | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| Rangers | 6 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 |
| Astros | 7 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| Nationals | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| Marlins | 6 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 |
| Mets | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| Braves | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| Phillies | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| Cardinals | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| Pirates | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| Brewers | 6 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 |
| Reds | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| Cubs | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| Dodgers | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Giants | 6 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 |
| Padres | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| Rockies | 6 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| Diamondbacks | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
Analysis: Looking for statistics which will influence your upcoming lineup? Check out these tidbits:
- With the exception of the Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Dodgers, no team in baseball is currently slated to face more than two LHP in Week 18. Unfortunately for these two teams, both rank towards the bottom third in .AVG against LHP, with the Mariners batting .247 (22nd in MLB) and the Dodgers hitting a paltry .217 (worst in MLB).
- As we conclude the month of July, here are a few stats worth noting regarding teams on hot streaks. During July, the Los Angeles Angels led MLB with a .368 OBP, while the Minnesota Twins finished fifth at .336. Neither team is perceived to be a strong hitting club, but both have been on a roll of late. During July, four teams (the San Diego Padres, Boston Red Sox, New York Mets and St.Louis Cardinals) hit more than twice the home run total of the Miami Marlins with 16.
- Just how anemic has the Atlanta Braves offense been this year? Through 50 games the squad has hit just 27 home runs total. All but nine teams in baseball have doubled that total, while the Baltimore Orioles have lapped them more than three times. Yikes.
INTERLEAGUE OUTLOOK
| AWAY TEAM | HOME TEAM | # GAMES | DH? | PLAYER(S) IMPACTED |
| Yankees (2), Mets (2) | Mets (2), Yankees (2) | 4 | Yes (2), No (2) | Alex Rodriguez, James Loney, Alejandro De Aza |
| Mets | Tigers | 3 | Yes (3) | James Loney, Alejandro De Aza |
| Cubs | Athletics | 3 | Yes (3) | Javier Baez, Jorge Soler |
| Red Sox | Dodgers | 3 | No (2) | David Ortiz |
Analysis: The team most effected by playing in interleague matchups in Week 18 is the New York Mets, who face the New York Yankees for a four-game split, followed by a three-game road trip to Detroit. None of the Mets players who will see additional at-bats are worthy of a potential flier in all but the deepest of NL leagues. With the Boston Red Sox traveling to Los Angeles, David Ortiz may be relegated to pinch-hit duties, robbing the club of its most potent hitter.
STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS
| PITCHER | MATCHUP 1 | MATCHUP 2 |
| Stephen Strasburg | @Diamondbacks (Bradley) | Giants (Bumgarner) |
| Madison Bumgarner | @Phillies (Eflin) | @Nationals (Strasburg) |
| Jacob deGrom | Yankees (Tanaka) | @Tigers (Fulmer) |
| Lance McCullers | Blue Jays (Dickey) | Rangers (Darvish) |
| Yu Darvish | @Orioles (Bundy) | @Astros (McCullers) |
| Masahiro Tanaka | @Mets (deGrom) | Indians (Carrasco) |
| David Price | @Mariners (LeBlanc) | @Dodgers (McCarthy) |
| Michael Fulmer | White Sox (Ranaudo) | Mets (deGrom) |
| Matt Shoemaker | Athletics (Gray) | @Mariners (LeBlanc) |
| Danny Salazar | Twins (Duffey) | @Yankees (Sabathia) |
| Carlos Carrasco | Twins (Gibson) | @Yankees (Tanaka) |
| Jon Gray | Dodgers (McCarthy) | Marlins (Conley) |
| Andrew Cashner | Brewers (Nelson) | Phillies (Eflin) |
| Matt Moore | Royals (Ventura) | Twins (Gibson) |
| Chris Archer | Royals (Duffy) | Twins (Duffey) |
| Archie Bradley | Nationals (Strasburg) | Brewers (Nelson) |
| Danny Duffy | @Rays (Archer) | Blue Jays (Stroman) |
| Dylan Bundy | Rangers (Darvish) | @White Sox (Ranaudo) |
| Jaime Garcia | @Reds (Reed) | Braves (Foltynewicz) |
| CC Sabathia | @Mets (Verrett) | Indians (Salazar) |
| Jason Hammel | Marlins (Conley) | @Athletics (Gray) |
| James Paxton | Red Sox (Rodriguez) | Angels (Skaggs) |
| Ryan Vogelsong | @Braves (Foltynewicz) | Reds (Reed) |
Analysis: Occasionally when I’m in the midst of creating the tables that I use for my weekly rankings I come across a pitching matchup which makes me pause for a moment and wish that I could attend the game. This upcoming week Stephen Strasburg takes on Madison Bumgarner, pitting my top two pitchers against each other. Normally starting against an elite talent would cause me to lower a pitcher’s weekly rankings, but to be honest both of these pitchers are so ridiculous that the opposing talent doesn’t matter. Few would guess that Bumgarner has actually accrued more strikeouts than Strasburg this season (largely in part due to the additional 23 innings pitched). Regardless, it seems like a safe bet that Bumgarner will continue his upward trend of strikeouts, as he has improved each year since his rookie season in 2009.
I’ve written about Lance McCullers in prior columns, stating that he was quickly climbing my yearly rankings, and now he is on the verge of SP1 status. His 3.18 ERA and 1.53 WHIP are still inflated due to poor starts earlier this season, but he has been utterly dominant since the end of May. In the 55 innings he’s pitched during the months of June and July, McCullers has allowed 16 earned runs, while striking out 72 batters. His statistics show a sharp breakdown with his home (2.28 ERA, 1.41 WHIP) versus road (5.57 ERA, 1.86 WHIP) splits, which is odd, considering that Minute Maid Park is widely considered favorable to hitters. Despite facing two plus offenses in the Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers, I have McCullers as my fourth ranked pitcher.
Jon Gray has been making a strong case for the old adage of “never trust a Colorado Rockies pitcher” to be finally vanquished. Perhaps we can amend it to "never trust a Colorado Rockies pitcher outside of Jon Gray?" Sure, his 4.22 ERA at Coors Field is still inflated due to the thin air, but he still has plenty of data to suggest that he’s been much better than his statistics show – namely his 3.62 xFIP. He’s allowed just 10 walks at home to 55 strikeouts, and his WHIP barely sits above 1.00 while at home. He’s certainly worth taking a flier on in all mixed league formats, if nothing other than to use as a spot-starter.
| PITCHER | MATCHUP 1 |
| Gerrit Cole | @Braves (Wisler) |
| Max Scherzer | @Diamondbacks (Godley) |
| Johnny Cueto | @Phillies (Nola) |
| Corey Kluber | @Yankees (Pineda) |
| Aaron Sanchez | @Royals (Gee) |
| Julio Teheran | @Cardinals (Leake) |
| Jake Arrieta | @Athletics (Graveman) |
| Carlos Martinez | Braves (Undecided) |
| Noah Syndergaard | @Tigers (Verlander) |
| Jose Fernandez | @Cubs (Lackey) |
| Jon Lester | Marlins (Urena) |
| Steven Matz | @Yankees (Nova) |
| Marco Estrada | @Astros (McHugh) |
| Chris Sale | @Tigers (Zimmerman) |
| Vince Velasquez | Giants (Samardzija) |
| Rich Hill | @Angels (Lincecum) |
| Felix Hernandez | Angels (Santiago) |
| Jeremy Hellickson | @Padres (Friedrich) |
| Kyle Hendricks | @Athletics (Mengden) |
| Chris Tillman | @White Sox (Shields) |
| John Lackey | Marlins (Fernandez) |
| Cole Hamels | @Orioles (Gausman) |
| Adam Wainwright | @Reds (Straily) |
| Jose Quintana | @Tigers (Boyd) |
| Drew Pomeranz | @Mariners (Miley) |
| Jameson Taillon | Reds (DeSclafani) |
| Justin Verlander | Mets (Syndergaard) |
| Kenta Maeda | @Rockies (Anderson) |
| Bartolo Colon | @Yankees (Eovaldi) |
| Blake Snell | Twins (Santana) |
| Dallas Keuchel | Rangers (Perez) |
| Jordan Zimmermann | White Sox (Sale) |
| Sean Manaea | @Angels (Weaver) |
| Jeff Samardzija | @Phillies (Velasquez) |
| Anthony DeSclafani | @Pirates (Taillon) |
| Ervin Santana | @Rays (Snell) |
| Homer Bailey | @Pirates (Liriano) |
| Tanner Roark | @Diamondbacks (Ray) |
| Kevin Gausman | Rangers (Hamels) |
| Trevor Bauer | Twins (Nolasco) |
| Collin McHugh | Blue Jays (Estrada) |
| A.J. Griffin | @Orioles (Worley) |
| Tim Lincecum | Athletics (Hill) |
| Michael Pineda | Indians (Kluber) |
| Joe Ross | Giants (Peavy) |
| Hector Santiago | @Mariners (Hernandez) |
| Steven Wright | @Dodgers (Norris) |
Analysis: Jake Arrieta has continued his trend of appearing rather ordinary since the end of June. This isn’t to suggest that his 2.76 ERA and 1.08 WHIP are bad by any stretch of the imagination, but his struggles since the days prior to the All-Star break certainly have his owners raising an eyebrow. I’ve continued to drop him down my rankings, but he remains within the top 10 at the position. I don’t believe that the wheels have completely fallen off of this wagon quite yet.
Jose Fernandez takes on the Cubs at Wrigley Field in Week 18. While this may scare some owners off, let me be the first to remind you that he absolutely dominated them back on June 26, allowing just one earned run over seven complete innings while striking out 13 batters in the process. It isn’t the best of matchups to be sure, but I’m not under the assumption that they will knock him around.
Several pitchers within my 11-20 range are currently being discussed as trade targets, namely to clubs who are considered to be “buying” at the deadline, such as the Texas Rangers and Boston Red Sox. Don’t be surprised to see Rich Hill, Jeremy Hellickson, or Vince Velasquez in different uniforms by the end of the month.