Fantasy Baseball Week 11 Preview

Welcome to the newest edition of the Weekly MLB Preview!

GAME BREAKDOWN GRID FOR WEEK 11 (6/13 to 6/19)

Analysis: Good things happen to the Pittsburgh Pirates when they are at home at PNC park, as evidenced by their team AVG of .284 and OBP of .358 – both statistics rank them within the top four teams in all of baseball. While they do face two of the better pitching staffs in baseball in the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers, I’d start all of my “Buccos” with confidence.

Of the Boston Red Sox' seven games next week, six come against LHP. The team is currently batting a healthy .279 collectively against southpaws, and lead all of baseball with a .356 OBP versus LHP. It is a bit curious to see a dramatic drop in their power numbers against LHP, though, as they have just 13 home runs to date, which is 26^th in baseball.

Although the entire staff has been disappointing in 2016, the Arizona Diamondbacks rotation has been coming around of late, especially Zack Greinke. The team is on the road for the entirety of Week 12, and while some would gloss over their secondary starters in Patrick Corbin and Robbie Ray, owners should know that the Diamondbacks have a 3.79 ERA on the road, good for ninth best in baseball. The staff is also in the top five in runs allowed on the road, just behind the Toronto Blue Jays, Washington Nationals, New York Mets and Chicago Cubs. Perhaps getting out of the heat is just what they need for a spark.

INTERLEAGUE OUTLOOK

Analysis: This upcoming week has a combined 18 interleague games, which means that several notable players will be affected by losing or gaining the DH. The only matchup which features the AL on the road comes with the Kansas City Royals against the New York Mets, which means that Kendrys Morales will sit. In all of the other contests the NL team is on the road, which means that they will gain a DH. Some notable names who could inherit at bats include the Colorado Rockies Ryan Raburn and the St. Louis Cardinals Jeremy Hazelbaker. While neither player is worth of an addition in standard leagues, DFS players should take special note to see where they are priced.

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS

John Lackey continues his ascension through my rankings, and with good reason. His 2.66 ERA and 0.93 WHIP (while striking out over a batter per inning in the process) is much better than any owner could have expected, and he verges on the SP1 tier in all mixed league formats. So what exactly has led to his success? An increased reliance upon his change up has led to batters being constantly off balance, coupled with a slight uptick in velocity. Few could argue that he hasn’t been slightly lucky (as his .255 BABIP suggests), but his FIP numbers (2.99) suggest that even with expected regression his ERA should still be below 3.00.Analysis: NL East pitchers continue to dominate the two-start rankings, largely in part due to them facing off against three of the worth offensive clubs in baseball, with the New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves. Both Noah Syndergaard and Stephen Strasburg fall within my top three at the position, and are no-brainer starts yet again.

Aaron Nola’s second season in the major leagues has been eye-opening, especially regarding his strikeout totals. In the minor leagues he was considered more of a control than power pitcher, yet his K/9 has risen exponentially in 2016. Should owners expect his success to continue? I believe so, given the underlying statistics. Nola’s ground ball percentage has risen a full seven percent from last season, and he now sits at 54.5 percent. Additionally, his hard-hit rate has sharply declined since 2015. I’m a little concerned about him over-using his curveball (he throws it 33.5 percent of the time), but few could argue that this is a budding ace.

James Paxton has been one of the most added pitchers over the past week, due to his increased velocity and high strikeout potential. Now 27 years old, he hasn’t lived up to his prospect hype, but similar to Zack Greinke, Paxton may prefer to fly under the radar for a while. His arsenal mainly consists of a four-seam fastball and cutter combination, complimented by a knuckle-curve and changeup. I’d like to see his 17.6 percent HE/FB percentage decline, and he still allows harder contact than his 2.86 ERA suggests. Where will Paxton be at the end of the year? I’d view him as a mid-tier SP3 for the remainder of 2016, but his value is certainly trending in the right direction.

Drew Pomeranz continues to impress me, and as we pass the mid-way point in June, it is safe to assume that his success in San Diego isn’t a fluke. Pomeranz doesn’t throw particularly hard (his average fastball velocity is just 91.2), but his elite knuckle-curve and changeup pitches keep hitters off balance, in part due to both their movement and the separation of velocity. Pitching in San Diego certainly helps things, but few know that opponents actually have a lower batting average when he is on the road (.184) than at home (.194). Pomeranz has always demonstrated the ability to generate strikeouts, but his 10.68 K/9 mark in the major leagues would be a career high. Regardless of regression, he’ll still flirt with 200 strikeouts this year and a sub-3.00 ERA.Analysis: Bottom line in my top tier? Start your New York Mets and Chicago Cubs pitchers. Simple enough.

Those following my Fantasy Baseball writing career should be well acquainted with my love affair for Kansas City Royals starter Danny Duffy. After several agonizing years of injuries, mismanagement and yo-yo’ing back and forth between the minor leagues, Duffy has finally begun to bloom into the starter which I envisioned him to be years ago. His ownership on most major sites is still below 36 percent, but that won’t last for long. Since rejoining the rotation in late May, Duffy has allowed less than three earned runs in all but one start, while boasting healthy strikeout numbers in the process. He benefits from having elite defensive talent behind him, and he verges on my mid-range SP3 options for the remainder of 2016.

Is it finally time to drop the assumption that owners should never own a Texas Rangers pitcher? Colby Lewis is doing his best to change that long-held belief. Even prior to his most recent start where he flirted with a perfect game through seven plus innings, Lewis posted a string of quality starts which is difficult to ignore. A fun statistic for you? Lewis has allowed more than three earned runs just once since April 16. Now comes the major question – can he keep this up, or as we approach the middle of summer will things flip around? As much as it pains me to say so, I’d lean on the second option. While Lewis has a fantastic ERA at 2.81, his other numbers suggest it to be a mirage, especially his xFIP (4.74) and ridiculous 83.3 percent strand rate. If I was a Lewis owner I’d be looking to sell high, especially after his last outing.