Fantasy Baseball RPV Breakdown: Who's First at Third?

Heading into last season, third base appeared to be a desolate wasteland in term of production. Little did we know that Josh Donaldson would win an MVP, Nolan Arenado would bring his thunderous bat with him for 81 games away from Coors and Manny Machado would blossom into one of the best players in baseball. This offseason, third base was seen as a strength. Adrian Beltre looked healthy, Matt Carpenter was coming off a career year in home runs and Kris Bryant seemed poised for superstardom. Although all of this was true, it belied the fact that the position was top-heavy for season long owners. If you were unable to grab an elite bat at the hot corner, things could get dicey fast.

Using Relative Position Value (RPV), we can examine the third base field roughly seven weeks into the season and evaluate its overall strength and weakness.

Nolan Arenado has picked up right where he left off last year and continues to be one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball. He’s currently tracking 10 percent better than Manny Machado. That’s really saying something consider how phenomenal Machado has been in the early going. Machado’s lack of stolen bases are what’s holding him back from the top spot. Even if that speed doesn’t return, he’s remains a “super elite” third baseman. Josh Donaldson has been good, but hasn’t lived up to his 2015 nor his ADP. In all honestly, both expectations were asking too much. Many are surprised by Matt Carpenter and Daniel Murphy’s ability to maintain their status. Many experts called for regression from both, but as Murphy continues to flirt with a .400 batting average close to Memorial Day, it’s safe to say this professional hitter is showing last year’s post season wasn’t a fluke.

The most pleasant surprises here have been Nick Castellanos and Jake Lamb. Both were highly thought of in their organizations and were slow to develop at the big league level until now. Lamb was a .300/.400/.500 player at Double-AA, so this was coming for a while. Castellanos always showed gap power. Now that’s finally translating into raw power. His high strikeout rate it the only thing holding him back. He’s sacrificed patience for pop, and most fantasy owners are delighted that he has.

Youngsters Miguel Sano and Maikel Franco have failed to live up to their potential in the early going. However, both have maintained their power and are talented enough to avoid an entire season of the dreaded “sophomore slump.” I would be buying shares of them wherever possible for 80 cents on the dollar.

Now, let’s take a look at this list again using auction values to see what third basemen have been worth their draft investment. It’s not all about production. It’s also about what cost that production is acquired. That is the difference between a first place team and a team toiling in mediocrity (or worse).

 Here’s the Relative Position Value per Dollar (RPVPD) of third basemen:

Stunning! Josh Donaldson’s inflated price tag makes him the least cost efficient third baseman in fantasy. Perception isn’t reality, but RPVPD is! The drastic negative RPV of this group as a whole comes from a twofold situation. First, it was top-heavy heading into the draft as I mentioned early. Second, there have been so many incredibly productive late round/inexpensive hitters that the great bats have to work double time just to pay off their salary. All of the big ones (Machado, Arenado, Bryant) fall into the negative sphere. The conclusion you can make is that in auction leagues, you were better taking fliers on the likes of Travis Shaw and Jake Lamb rather than making big investments in one of the upper tier members.

Be wary of the top of this board. Although they have been cost efficient, they also have glaring holes that loom over them going forward. Eugenio Suarez is hitting just .217 against RHP with a .645 OPS. He’s also dreadful on the road (2.39 BA/.626 OPS away) making him really a more viable daily fantasy option (at home versus a LHP) than a season long play. Brandon Drury has exceeded expectations, but when David Peralta returns he’ll see at bats start to disappear a bit. He may also struggle the more he’s exposed to the league. As pleasant a surprise as Travis Shaw has been, let us not forget the tale of another Red Sox third baseman, Will Middlebrooks, whose profile rings oddly familiar to that of Shaw. He could also turn into a pumpkin in the second half.

Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) is the seven-time best-selling author of the Fantasy Black Book Series for baseball and football. He hosts Fantasy Sports Tonight on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio and the Dear Mr. Fantasy Podcast.