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Here we sit at the halfway point of the MLB season and the trade deadline looms large. Already Brad Ziegler was dealt to the Red Sox which opens a door for Tyler Clippard or Daniel Hudson to grab some saves (Hudson being the better long term investment). In most years, teams are looking to acquire big-time starting pitchers who can make a difference for a contender making a run. Last year we saw David Price’s enormous impact on the Blue Jays first hand. However, this year there aren’t many legit aces on the block. At best, Sonny Gray and Rich Hill of Oakland may be dealt by month’s end. There are some premium relievers, though, that will be on the move and when they change addresses it will impact many fantasy teams negatively and positively.
Here’s a look at the 2016 Relative Position Value (RPV) of the Top 25 relievers in fantasy YTD. This time I’ll leave out the “RP eligible” hurlers who are actually starters.
Player | FPPG | Raw RPV | |
1 | Jeurys Familia RP | NYM | 310 | 0.432 |
2 | Kenley Jansen RP | LAD | 289 | 0.335 |
3 | Zach Britton RP | BAL | 280 | 0.293 |
4 | Mark Melancon RP | PIT | 257 | 0.187 |
5 | Jeanmar Gomez RP | PHI | 248 | 0.145 |
6 | A.J. Ramos RP | MIA | 244 | 0.126 |
7 | Roberto Osuna RP | TOR | 229 | 0.059 |
8 | David Robertson RP | CHW | 223 | 0.029 |
9 | Francisco Rodriguez RP | DET | 222 | 0.025 |
10 | Jeremy Jeffress RP | MIL | 219 | 0.013 |
11 | Steve Cishek RP | SEA | 214 | -0.012 |
12 | Wade Davis RP | KC | 206 | -0.047 |
13 | Santiago Casilla RP | SF | 204 | -0.056 |
14 | Alex Colome RP | TB | 203 | -0.063 |
15 | Cody Allen RP | CLE | 203 | -0.063 |
16 | Luke Gregerson RP | HOU | 196 | -0.096 |
17 | Ryan Madson RP | OAK | 195 | -0.100 |
18 | Sam Dyson RP | TEX | 194 | -0.105 |
19 | Andrew Miller RP | NYY | 193 | -0.109 |
20 | Aroldis Chapman RP | NYY | 189 | -0.126 |
21 | Fernando Rodney RP | MIA | 188 | -0.130 |
22 | Craig Kimbrel RP | BOS | 184 | -0.149 |
23 | Brad Ziegler RP | ARI | 184 | -0.151 |
24 | Hector Rondon RP | CHC | 172 | -0.204 |
25 | Jonathan Papelbon RP | WAS | 166 | -0.232 |
Jeurys Familia (+43% RPV) and Kenley Jansen (+34% RPV) lead the pack. Despite missing a month, Aroldis Chapman has still managed to crack the top 20. He’s leapfrogged Craig Kimbrel who went for a premium price on draft day and has underwhelmed. Nos. 5-11 overall on this list were also “value” closers this offseason, which again proves you don’t need to reach for mid-level closers when the back end guys can perform equally as well. When you’re pounding teams into the dirt, sometimes save opportunities don’t always present themselves. Hector Rondon of the Cubs has suffered from this a bit in the early going.
This information is all well and good, but it’s also now in the past. We have to start speculating which relievers will be moved and how that impacts not only their value but others as well. Sure, there is a certain risk, but the potential rewards can be the difference between winning a league and finishing second.
Andrew Miller NYY
If the Yankees want to bring back a true prospect haul, then Andrew Miller is the piece to move. He’s more versatile (having set up and closed equally well) and controllable over a longer period of time than his teammate Aroldis Chapman. Regardless of the role, Miller will offer brilliant peripherals and he may be available in a deal considering some owners fear what his role may be August 1. If you make a legitimate offer, the downside is that he stays a top-20 reliever as a set-up man. The upside is he becomes an elite level closer.
Aroldis Chapman NYY
Obviously, Aroldis Chapman is the biggest name closer who could be on the move, but his value won’t change should he lose his pinstripes. The impact Chapman’s move will make is more about who he replaces. Which leads us to our next group…
Hector Rondon CHC/Sam Dyson TEX
Should Chapman be dealt to either the Rangers or Cubs, he will be the 9th inning guy. That will spell doom for Dyson or Rondon. The smart money is on Texas landing the Cuban flamethrower, so Dyson owners may want to cash in before it’s too late. The dark horse for Chapman would be the Cardinals…
Seung Hwan Oh/Trevor Rosenthal/Kevin Siegrist STL
With Siegrest on the DL and Rosenthal dealing with a hamstring issue and poor performance, Oh has stepped into the closer’s role and been effective. It would make sense for the Cardinals to look elsewhere for bullpen help and should they acquire Chapman this group becomes mostly disposable. It would seem unlikely they want to give up too much for a guy with the questionable personal history that now follows Chapman. That means perhaps a closer out on the west coast may be more appealing. I’m talking about…
Huston Street LAA
The Angels are going nowhere and a veteran 9th inning guy like Street would be helpful for most contending team's bullpens. Street would, however, be better suited for a move to the NL at this stage in his career. His logical replacement would be Joe Smith who’s proven he can handle closing duties before. Smith would be a sneaky grab in deep leagues for the final months of the season.
Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) is the seven-time best-selling author of the Fantasy Black Book Series for baseball and football and hosts Fantasy Sports Tonight on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio.
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