Call me the Gambler, baby, but fantasy baseball is just like the song. You got to know when to hold them and know when to fold them; know when to walk away and know when to run….
As we head into the 10th week of the fantasy baseball season, it’s important to recognize some of the trends we’re seeing with relation to individual players and whether or not they’re really worth that roster spot or your time/attention with regard to trades. Some are veterans working their way back on the comeback trail, some are youngsters we may have been into early on but are now showing their true colors while others are still trying to carve out a name for themselves as they prove their worth both in reality and fantasy. Some of them are easy decisions while several of them have fantasy owners teetering on the fence, still trying to figure them out. Here’s a look at some of the more notable players people seem interested in:
On the Comeback Trail?
Andrew McCutchen, OF PIT – While the counting stats have been good but not great, the biggest issue we’re seeing from McCutchen is the heavy drop in batting average and on-base percentage. His strikeout and walk rates have been well in-line with what his career norms look like, but the BABIP has been significantly down. It was at .273 in April which stinks and then got even uglier with a .218 mark in May. However, he hit for more power the second month and post an improved .196 ISO. June has started off on a nuch more positive note and after a solid run this past week in which he batted .400 with two home runs, five RBI and eight runs scored, he appears to be on his way back. He’s obviously getting older and slowing down from the superstar he once was, but it appears as if he’s working his way back closer to what we were expecting from him this spring. Stay the course and if you have the opportunity to acquire him on the cheap, you should definitely explore that option.
Todd Frazier, 3B CHW – Listen, if you ever had high hopes of a decent batting average, you were fooling yourself. He’s never hit better than .273 in a season and as his power has increased, his average has gone to crap. Deal with it. You own Frazier for the counting stats and while April and May have been lean with just seven doubles and seven home runs combined, he’s been picking it up significantly since the middle of last month. He’s sitting on eight home runs and 25 RBI on the year, but since May 18, he’s kicked in five homers with 11 RBI which is, obviously, a significant portion of his production. Stick with him through the next couple of weeks here in June and see what transpires. You might be pleasantly surprised.
Kole Calhoun, OF LAA – It’s been a rough start to the season for Calhoun and the Angels in general and the loss of Mike Trout certainly doesn’t help. But the 29-year old outfielder is currently riding a six-game hit streak with three home runs, five RBI and five runs scored and it looks like he’s putting the .178 BABIP we saw in May behind him finally. We’re not looking at world-beating numbers moving forward, but Calhoun has proven to be a guy with 20-homer power and his place atop the order is going to keep the runs scored coming in as he picks up the on-base percentage.
Sonny Gray, SP OAK – When you look at Gray, you have to do two things: 1. Study the game log as much as you study the overall numbers/peripherals and 2. Lose your preconceived notions that came from Gray’s reputation last year as an injured starter allowing runs at a rapid rate. His first two starts of the season weren’t great as he worked himself back into the flow, but he’s now got four quality starts in his last five outings which also includes a slight bump in his strikeout rate. Too many people will focus on his struggles against the Indians two starts ago, but he did yeoman’s work against the Nationals on Sunday and his work against some of the tougher lineups recently has been very promising. He’ll face the Rays in Tampa for his next start, so look to use him and expect a nice showing on the strikeout front once again.
On the Fence
Jonathan Schoop, 2B BAL – During his first two seasons, we saw some real nice power potential from the young Orioels second baseman, but the plate discipline was certainly lacking. He couldn’t draw a walk to save his life and the strikeout rate hovered around 25-percent. Yuck. But last year, not only did we see an uptick in the power, but there was also a little improvement in the plate discipline. He still couldn’t draw a walk, but he was more selective with his swing rates and the result was a reduced strikeout rate and improvement in his OBP numbers. Looking now, Schoop seems primed to take another step forward. Both the walk and strikeout rates have improved, he’s swing at much fewer pitches, particularly those outside the zone, and the results have been strong. The growth is very similar to what we saw in Adam Jones just prior to his breakout, so while I’m not ready to celebrate the full-blown comparison, I’m definitely more intrigued by Schoop as a starting second base option.
Whit Merrifield, 2B KC – He went 3-for-4 on Sunday to extend his hit streak to 19 games and it looks like our 2017 late-bloomer award has a front-runner. At 28 years old, Merrifield was expected to be a utility man, but the lack of production from Raul Mondesi Jr afforded him the opportunity to shine. His six home runs and six stolen bases offer up balanced totals for both power and speed and a quick glance at his .319 BABIP shows that he’s not just benefitting from favorable bounces. I keep this one filed under my “ride the wave until it breaks” header and will continue to use him as a set-it-and-forget-it type of guy. Should the numbers take a turn for the worst, he’s an easy drop, but if he just maintains where he’s at, he’s going to be a valuable low-cost asset.
Ariel Miranda, SP SEA – No more just looking at the lefty’s name and thinking you could stack righties against him in DFS as Miranda seems to have taken a turn for the better. The strikeout rate and K/BB have stepped up, his WHIP is still under 1.20 and the increased use of his split-fingered fastball really seems to have done the trick for him. His changeup still needed work, so while he’s still throwing it, he’s only using it about half as much as he used to. He’s still a fly-ball pitcher who has his momentary struggles with right-handed hitters, so on the road against heavy right-handed lineups, particularly in hitter-friendly parks, would give me pause, but I’m starting to stream him in a little more often considering how solid he’s been over his last five outings.
Ty Blach, SP SF – You won’t be getting any kind of a strikeouts boost here given that dismal 3.55 K/9, but you will get some help in the ratios, which makes Blach worth a look as your fifth or sixth starter in a 12-team league that has nine pitching spots available. Since joining the rotation on April 25, Blach has thrown six quality starts in eight outings, including five straight, and has thrown at least seven innings in each of his last five starts. The last one, obviously being a complete-game shutout against the Phillies last Friday. I can’t say with a strong degree of certainty that he’ll be able to go on stretches like this again as the season continues, but with the ability to call pitcher-friendly AT&T Park home, he stands a chance of posting decent ratios even in the summer months.
Fold Your Cards
Amir Garrett, SP CIN – With 21 earned runs over his last 11.2 innings (three starts), it’s pretty safe to say the Garrett hype is over. Long over. Quality starts in five of his first six starts was great, but he’s obviously got plenty of issues from which we need to stay away. For starters, his command is a mess, his changeup looks like a beach ball coming hitters’ way and he is having trouble dropping in his slider for even a close call of a strike. The 25-year old has much to learn about pitching in the majors and the summertime at Great American Ballpark is hardly the place you want him to get his education. He needs more seasoning in the minors and if the Reds don’t put him there for the duration of the season, his confidence level is going to be as ugly as his stat lines.
Tim Anderson, 2B CHW – From a scouting standpoint, there’s so much to love about Anderson, but here in his second season, he is still looking overmatched by big league pitching. He’s swinging at a ton of pitches and way too many outside the strike zone, he can’t draw a walk to save Jonathan Schoop’s life and with none of those ground balls (almost a 50-percent clip) finding holes, he’s been a pretty easy out thus far. There’s a world of talent to be had, but the big leagues still seem to be overwhelming him right now. Feel free to move on.
Koda Glover, RP WAS – While fantasy owners rejoiced at the naming of Glover finally as the Nationals’ closer, let Sunday’s five earned runs over one-third of an inning serve as a reminder that the team is still very much looking for a closer on the trade market. The David Robertson rumors still haven’t died out and the team has also been exploring what it would take to acquire Kelvin Herrera from the Royals. Yes, the talks have stalled here and there and it seems like the longer they wait the less likely they’ll do something, but when push comes to shove, Dusty Baker would much rather have a veteran hurler in the ninth than an unproven, sometimes-shaky rookie. If you’re deciding between which closer to keep and which to trade, Glover is the one to go right now.
Masahiro Tanaka, SP NYY – After a depressing season last year in which I stayed away from Tanaka due to the injury concerns (partially torn UCL) and watched him pitch like a champ, I realize now that I was right but just premature in my dismissal. Yep. Just like the love life. The start to the season was solid, but as the calendar flipped to May, Tanaka’s struggles took center stage. Over his last six starts, he failed to go past the fourth inning in two of them, failed to get through six in three of them and has now allowed 29 earned runs over his last 31 innings. Yes, he had that one real nice start towards the end of May, but it was against a VERY cold Oakland team that had a strikeout rate higher than my waistline. As much as this depresses me as a Yankees fan, I’m done with Tanaka for good.