Trea Turner took the league by storm when he was called up by the Nationals in 2016. If you were one of the fortunate owners to pick him up off waivers then he probably helped you win your league. His stellar .342 batting average and 33 steals were enough to get you into your playoffs and he did it all in just 73 games. Everyone is looking for that this year. However, there is a certain price you pay with rookies considering many don’t pan out.

Young Arms

Tyler Glasnow came into 2017 as a fantasy baseball sleeper. He wasn’t really on your draft radar unless you were in a deeper or NL only league. But with Ray Searage as his pitching coach, what could really go wrong?! Glasnow was optioned to Triple-A on June 10th after building a 7.45 ERA and surrendering 12 home runs in just 54.1 innings of work and allowing 4.80 BB/9 in his brief tenure in the big leagues. Despite the poor numbers and demotion, Glasnow is still owned in about 20% of Yahoo! Leagues.

Robert Gsellman is a similar rookie that has given fantasy owners inconsistent production. It’s almost unfair that he’s considered a rookie. Per MLB rules, if you enter the MLB season with at least 50 innings pitched, you’re no longer considered a rookie. In 2016, Gsellman gained 44.2 innings of experience and had a nice 2.42 ERA with a 8.46 K/9. If he had been allowed to record just 16 more outs in 2016, this would just be a sophomore slump. Alas, in Gsellman’s “Rookie” year he has a 5.50 ERA and his K/9 has dipped to 6.68 and he’s only maintaining his spot in the rotation because so many other Mets pitchers are injured or struggling with girlfriend problems.

In looking at all the rookie pitchers, 16 of them have made at least 5 starts. Of those 16, only 5 of them have an ERA under 4.00:

  • Jeff Hoffman (COL) – 2.25 ERA in 5 starts (32.0 innings and 66% owned)
  • Sam Gaviglio (SEA) – 3.41 ERA in 6 starts (34.1 innings and 5% owned)
  • Kyle Freeland (COL) – 3.42 ERA in 14 starts (81.2 innings and 39% owned)
  • Alex Meyer (LAA) – 3.52 ERA in 9 starts (46.0 innings and 10% owned)
  • Jordan Montgomery (NYY) – 3.78 ERA in 12 starts (69.0 innings and 37% owned)

Oddly enough, the two guys with the lowest ownership, Gaviglio and Meyer, aren’t perceived as rookies because they’re both over 27 years old. The other three; Hoffman, Freeland, and Montgomery are all well worth owning or streaming. But there are still 11 other rookies (Glasnow and Gsellman included) that boast ERA’s over 4.00 (Jharel Cotton – 20% owned, Ty Blach – 15% owned, Antonio Senzatela – 64% owned, etc.). Senzatela’s ownership is highly concerning considering he has a 5.49 ERA since May 14th.

Rookie pitchers may be a bit of a danger zone. There are serious concerns about overusing young pitchers and making sure everyone’s on a pitch count. There’s even a growing trend where young aces are opting for Tommy John just for the sake of having it. So if looking for rookies don’t find them on the mound.

 

Find Them in the Batter’s Box

There aren’t many rookie arms blowing up in 2017. But there are certainly an abundance of rookies lighting up the scoreboard on offense. Everybody knows what Aaron Judge has done so far in 2017. He’s slashing .335/.445/.699 with 23 home runs. If the Yankees are smart they’ll do everything they can to talk him out of the home run derby.  Cody Bellinger is on a similar tear to Aaron Judge. In 15 fewer games (and 48 fewer at-bats) than Judge, Bellinger is slashing .261/.333/.628 with 19 home runs. (Update: Bellinger hit two additional home runs Monday night to bring his total to 21) Bellinger even had a bit of a slump where his strikeout rate spiked, but he’s rebounded quite well since then and shown great poise at the plate.

In total, there are 24 rookies that have played in at least 30 games this season. Of those 24 players, 10 of them are hitting at least .270 so far, and 17 of those 24 are at least hitting .250 as the All-Star Break approaches.

Batting average isn’t the only indicator for how well a rookie is contributing. Ben Gamel (8% owned in Yahoo!) is 4th among rookies in runs scored (33 in 48 games) and he’s hitting .346 with a .411 OBP.  Trey Mancini’s ownership is now at 40% (18% jump in the last 24 hours) and he’s 4th among rookies with 38 RBI’s in 54 games. Matt Davidson is only 14% owned and hitting just .257, but he still boasts an .847 OPS and has 5 home runs since June 12th.

 

Sure… there are Outliers

It’s not an exact science. For every Aaron Judge there’s a Byron Buxton. Buxton, a former #2 overall pick, has struggled to find his way in the majors. Buxton’s a career .327 hitting in Triple-A but just can’t find a way for his game to translate in the majors as he’s hitting .215 in over 200 career games and yet he’s still 24% owned (though he’s no longer a rookie). But even a guy like Gleyber Torres who won’t be making his debut in 2017 now that he needs Tommy John surgery was 14% owned before the news broke.

Stashing players, especially rookies, will always be a part of the strategy in fantasy baseball. Lucas Giolito is stashed in 7% of leagues despite his struggles in Triple-A (4.92 ERA, 4.66 BB/9). Most rookies will have even the slightest ownership percentage attached to their name just for their potential alone. It’s no guarantee those players even get called up prior to rosters expanding late in the season in which case you wasted a roster spot for most of the year.

Fantasy baseball is a long season. There are always fantasy owners who quit paying attention (especially at this point in the year) and the competitiveness is trimmed down. Go week-to-week and always look to improve. Monitor the top prospects throughout the minor leagues. Flag them in your fantasy league. Get a feel for when they may get called up and pounce when the time is right. You also shouldn’t hesitate to add a guy like Gamel, Mancini, or Davidson because they can help you win now. Always assess how you can do better. There are plenty of young guys that are under-owned and can help you win now.