Fantasy Baseball Daily Trends: May 4, 2016

EXIT VELOCITY FOR PITCHERS

*The following data is from Baseball Savant and MLB.com.

Let’s be very simplistic here.

The harder you hit the baseball the more likely you are to get a base hit.

Pretty straight forward, right?

Sometimes we talk about BABIP and extoll batters as “lucky” or “unlucky” though those terms are very obtuse.

Here is what exit velocity represents, taken directly from the MLB.com site.

Exit Velocity is defined as the speed of a baseball after it is hit by a batter. This includes all Batted Ball Events -- outs, hits and errors.

Here are the top-20 pitchers, those that have limited batters to the lowest mph mark, through May 4^th, 2016 (minimum 40 batted ball events).

Another list with Syndergaard at the top. Shocker.

Maeda has a lot to prove but the early returns intrigue. He has a 1.69 walk rate per nine and his WHIP is 0.94, and if his arm stays healthy it certainly looks like success will follow.

Feldman must be allowing batted balls at the same rate as the pitches he flings to the plate. Weak pitches, weak contact I guess. Odd.

deGrom is generating weak contact despite some concerns. Last season Jacob had a 94.9 mph fastball and this season it’s checking in at just 92.2 mph. The strikeouts are down as well, more than two full batters per nine, at 7.13. The walks still aren’t there (2.04 per nine), and batters aren’t exactly ripping him up, but the loss of heat and strikeouts bears keeping an eye on.

Kazmir has struggled with a 5.68 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. He’s also averaged just barely five innings a start. The strikeouts are up to 8.53 per nine, he hasn’t been at 7.8 in either of the last two seasons, but other than that there are concerns everywhere. His 17.5 percent line drive rate is supported by the lack of velocity as it’s a 4-year low.

Kennedy has always been one of ‘my guys.’ There have been some ups and downs for sure over the years, but he’s been on his game in ’16. The strikeout rate is down a bit from the last two seasons at 8.42 per nine, but it’s still a strong number and right in line with his 8.31 per nine career mark. Like Kazmir, Kennedy has a low line drive rate of 18.8 percent, but with the stability he’s shown in his career suggests that number will go up (it’s 21.2 percent for his career and has been at least 22.5 percent each of the past three years).

Nola has been everything that was advertised, and he’s even improved upon last year’s 13 game run. Through six starts Nola isn’t being hit hard. He isn’t walking anyone (1.58 batters per nine). He’s striking out batters at a rate no one predicted (9.90 per nine). He’s generating an impressive 50.0 percent ground ball rate leading to a 1.69 GB/FB ratio. He’s been a bit fortunate with a .227 BABBIP, he simply can’t continue along at superstar levels, but he’s about to settle in for one strong campaign.

Harvey has been messy… since Spring Training. The 4.76 ERA and 1.56 WHIP stink. Pretty much the same thing can be said about his 6.62 K/9 mark. Come to think of it, his BB/9 rate of 2.91 is more than a full batter above the rate he posted last season. He’s all kinds of messed up. Interesting though that he’s still able to hold batters to a lowest mph mark that he’s on the leaderboard. Perhaps all hope isn’t lost.

Porcello is having tons of early season success, especially with the extremely elevated strikeout rate (his current 9.92 mark per nine is more than two full batters ahead of any rate he has ever posted before. He’s only been over 7.25 per nine one time by the way). Note that when he gets the ball up and in to righties he gets murdered with an exit velocity of 99.8 mph.

Here are the bottom-20 pitchers, those that have allowed batters the highest mph mark, through May 4^th, 2016 (minimum 40 batted ball events).

Archer has had his ups and downs this season. His arm appears to be fine, and as he hits his spots better things should occur. Last year his exit velocity was 90.2 mph. Things should normalize as the innings pile up.

Pineda is well off his pace of 88.1 mph last season. We’re talking more than four mph which is a big concern. He’s striking out 10 per nine, a massive number, but his location has been off. After walking 28 batters in 27 starts last season he’s already walked eight men in five outings, and batters have added .027 points to his BABIP (.359). He’s better than this, but he’s also not as precise as we’re used to seeing.

Corbin had a 90.9 mph last season, just more than a mph difference than this season. He made 16 outings in his return from Tommy John surgery and the hope was that he would build upon his effort from last season. Not so much yet. The strikeouts are way down at 5.65 per nine, and his walk rate of 2.70 per nine would also be a career worst. The struggles for Corbin can be seen in his 39.3 hard hit rate percentage which is six points above his career mark. Corbin is generating a lot of grounders at 55.1 percent, his career mark is 47.2 percent, so improvement seems probable. Give it time.

Ross was at 86.8 mph last season, the 11^th best mark in baseball, so his current struggles are a bit odd to see. It’s odd to see the exit velocity so high given that he’s yet to allow a homer, that he has a .231 BABIP and that his hard hit rate is just 16.9 percent (30.2 last year). Seems like a sample size issue with the younger Ross.

Sanchez is a mess. His 9.89 K/9 rate is outstanding. His 6.08 BB/9 rate is pathetic. He has no idea where he is throwing the ball. It’s hardly surprising batters are squaring up his pitches.

Odorizzi posted a mark of 88.5 mph last season. Looks for his current rate to stabilize as the majority of measures show him to be performing at a rate that is nearly identical to what he pulled off last season for the Rays.

Here is a link to the work on exit velocity and hitters which appeared yesterday.

DFS DIAMONDS

*The following list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays.

CATCHER: Stephen Vogt is batting .458 with a 1.208 OPS over 26 plate appearances against Felix Hernandez. Vogt has a hit in 6-straight outings and he’s also hitting .310 at home with a .856 OPS this season.   

FIRST BASE: Why mess with what is hot? Chris Carter has two homers in 14 at-bats against Hector Santiago and he’s gone deep four times in four games this season. He also has a 1.147 OPS against lefties this year.  

SECOND BASE: Righties are hitting .310 with a .380 OBP against CC Sabathia this season. Wednesday he faces righty Jonathan Schoop who is batting .300 with a .814 OPS against lefties this season.   

THIRD BASE: In 13 games on the road Maikel Franco is batting .333 with a 1.046 OPS. He’s been in a bit of a slump, but he faces Mike Leake who has been hit to the tune of a .324 average and a .354 OBP against righties.

SHORTSTOP: Brad Miller has a .441 wOBA over his last seven games played. Lefties are crushing Alex Wood as they are batting .393 with a .500 OBP.

OUTFIELD: Nolan Reimold has a .350/.409/.609 slash line against lefties this season. He takes on CC Sabathia whom, he has a .375/.400/.688 slash line against over 35 plate appearances.   

OUTFIELD: Miguel Sano has four runs his las three games and he’s produced at least one hit in eight of nine games. He takes on Mike Fiers who has been limping against righties this season (.280/.308/.558). 

OUTFIELD: Adam Eaton has scored six runs in eight games and four times in those eight outings he’s had two hits. He faces Clay Buchholz who has been tattooed by lefties (.358/.460/.492). 

DAILY DIVE VIDEO

In today's video I talk about the health of Joe Panik and Jason Heyward as well as detailing who is likely to step in to the rotation spot opened in Chicago with John Danks being DFA'd.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).