WHO AM I?
I’m on pace to go 25/25 this season.
I’ve never hit 10 homers in a big league season before.
I have stolen 30 bases on two separate occasions though.
Last year I hit .219 and for my career I’ve posted a league average .254 batting average.
I posted a .264 OBP last season and for my career my .307 number is worse than the league average.
Last year I posted a .313 SLG dropping my career mark to .371, miles away from the league average.
I own a career .678 OPS. The league average, since I began my career in 2011, is .722.
Who am I…?
I am Leonys Martin of the Mariners.
That’s right, a guy who has never hit nine homers in a season is on pace to push 30 this season. Folks, Martin has eight homers this season, already tying his career best mark. And he’s not stopped in May as he’s crushed it with four homers, a .308 batting average, a .378 OBP and .508 SLG. He’s also swiped five bases. There aren’t many outfielders who are performing better at the moment, though the key phrase is “at the moment.”
Martin is batting .252 thanks to the hot run which has him within two points of his career .254 mark. It’s important to remember that Martin’s not a big batting average guy having hit above .260 just one time (.274 in 2014). He currently owns a .302 BABIP that is just off his .312 career mark. Lots of similarity there. He has hit the ball harder than ever before with a substantial 34.4 percent mark but I have to think that’s the result of some sample size funk. The guy has been under 26 percent each of the last four seasons so before I believe he’s jumping to an all-star level I’m gonna need to see more than 41 games of work.
Speaking of hitting the ball hard, let’s talk homers.
This is very much a Jose Altuve situation. When any player gets locked in he can streak, either with hits or big flies. At the same time, a hot run doesn’t mean a player has evolved as a hitter. That situation is even more difficult to accept as the new norm when said player has three years running with a total of 20 homers. How is said player then going to hit 25 homers after hitting 20 the previous three years? Yes, Leonys is hitting the ball harder. Yes, he is pulling the ball more (his 47.9 percent pull rate would be a career best for a full season, but it would likely also spell doom to significant batting average growth). Another factor helping his homer pace, but likely going to ultimately hurt his batting average pursuits, is his 44.8 percent fly ball rate. For a guy with a career 30.3 percent mark that’s a significant move upward. Given the overall game of Leonys, I don’t think it’s a good move either. Aiding his homer count, in addition to the fly ball rate, is the big time growth in his HR/FB rate. After never posting a league average HR/FB ratio, hell he’s never posted an 8.7 percent mark, he’s more than doubled that rate at 20.5 percent in 2016. Yeah, not gonna continue, not in this world.
The lone standoutish number that could continue for Martin is the steal pace. As noted, he’s crested 30 steals twice before so base path success is likely to follow.
Martin is a league average option in batting average and on base percentage. He’s never driven in 50 runs and even with his power surge is only on pace for about 65. He could score 70 runs for the first time this season, but it’s not like he’s that’s an impressive number. As noted above he’s not a big power threat either. Ride him in mixed leagues for now, that’s fine. Ultimately though he’s nothing more than 5th outfielder type in those leagues.
THE ORACLE’S NOTES
Madison Bumgarner has a 2.31 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. What were you worried about again? Speaking of an elite pitcher finding his game, what of Zack Greinke? Things are improving over his last five games as he’s gone 3-1 with a 3.18 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 9.00 K/9 mark. No reason to think that he won’t continue along at that level.
Eduardo Escobar has been activated from the DL by the Twins. Should you care? Only if you’re in an AL-only league. Escobar has a mere .563 OPS this season with no homers and no steals through 27 games. At least he qualifies at two spots (OF, SS). I guess.
Alex Guerrero has a week left in the time he can be kept in the minors by the Dodgers. At that point he will need to be promoted to the big league roster or released due to the contract he signed. Guerrero has no spot on the Dodgers, and it’s a mystery why they haven’t traded him by this point to bring back something of value. Really don’t get this one.
Juan Nicasio was set to start Sunday versus the Rockies, but rain stopped that game which was shifted to Monday. The Pirates will keep everyone on their normal rest this week meaning that Nicasio will have his start skipped with his next scheduled start to be this weekend versus the Rangers. Nicasio has allowed 21 hits and 13 runs his last 15.1 innings. He’s been brutalish, which doesn’t surprise me though I know it does with others.
Rougned Odor will have suspension heard Tuesday and likely start serving it Friday. You might want to bench him this week if you set your lineup Monday.
DFS DIAMONDS
*The following list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays.
CATCHER: Wilson Ramos has a hit in 5-straight games during which time he’s driven in six runners. He’s also batting .349 with a .975 OPS at home. He takes on Bartolo Colon who has allowed eight runs over 9.2 innings his last two starts.
FIRST BASE: Mike Pelfrey can’t get lefties out this season with a .391/.433/.531 slash line. He also has never gotten Ryan Howard out with the big fella having hit .356 with three homers in 45 at-bats.
SECOND BASE: Anthony Rendon ha a .375 average over 16 at-bats against Bartolo Colon. Rendon has seven RBI his last five games. He’s also walked five times and in four of the five games he’s had at least two hits.
THIRD BASE: Evan Longoria has a 10-game hitting streak going right now with nine runs scored. He also takes on a familiar foe in Wei-Yin Chen who he has a healthy .297/.386/.568 slash line against in 44 plate appearances.
SHORTSTOP: Alexei Ramirez has a hard to look past .588 batting average in 17 at-bats against Johnny Cueto. He doesn’t have a hit in four games but at least he is batting .294 on the road this season. A BvP battle it is.
OUTFIELD: Juan Lagares is batting .290 against lefties this season and has hit .280 against lefties in his career. He’s also hitting .379 with a homer versus 29 at-bats.
OUTFIELD: Ichiro has six hits in his last two outings. He takes on Matt Moore whom he’s hit .381 against in 21 at-bats. There’s no power, and little speed at this point, but Ichiro can still rap out some hits.
OUTFIELD: Nomar Mazara swings lefty, and Nick Tropeano allows lefties to hit .301 with a .402 OBP. Mazara has two homer his last four games and has at least two hits in 5-of-9 games.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).