THE TYLER GLASNOW CONUNDRUM
Tyler Glasnow is an elite level prospect with the Pirates. You know that by now. You probably also now that in his last two outings at Triple-A Indianapolis Glasnow hasn’t allowed a single hit. That’s right, he’s thrown 13 hitless innings in his last two outings. Why wasn’t he allowed to throw more innings as he was holding two clubs hitless? He walked 11 batters running up his pitch count. Let me mention that again. Glasnow has held two clubs hitless in a row while walking 11 batters in 13 innings. There’s more.
Glasnow also has no idea where he’s throwing the ball.
Glasnow has walked five guys or more five times his last 11 outings.
Glasnow has walked at least five batters each of his list last three outings.
Glasnow has walked 16 batters his last 17.2 innings.
That’s not poor.
That’s not bad.
That’s not even terrible.
That’s ghastly… and then some.
Do you really think if he’s brought up to the majors that he’s going to all of a sudden start throwing strikes? At Triple-A his stuff is unhittable. He simply out-talents everyone on the field. In the big leagues they know what 96 mph looks like. They know to spit on a pitch that is two inches outside. They know how to take ‘pitcher’s pitches.’ They don’t in the minors, and that’s a HUGE concern with Glasnow. He simply isn’t throwing enough strikes.
Listen to the words of the manager of the Pirates, Clint Hurdle. “When you're averaging (five) walks a game, that's a number you have to pay attention to,” manager Clint Hurdle said. “He has to shave that down, because there are plenty of pitchers with big arms who get up here and that's part of the challenge… There are so many weak pockets in Triple-A lineups. Big league lineups are not the same. They're not as forgiving.”
“He's still so young,” catcher Jacob Stallings said. “And he's so tall (6-feet-8) and lanky that sometimes it's hard to get those body parts synced up consistently. I think that's what he's dealing with more than anything else, just learning how to grow into his body. His stuff is always there.”
I’m telling you, he’s no different than Francisco Liriano right now and how is that working out for the Pirates lefty? Glasnow has made 15 start at Triple-A over 84 innings. Because of the strikeouts (100), and the walks, he’s barely averaging 5.6 innings a starts. That’s horrible for a guy who has allowed 49 hits in 84 innings while holding batters to a .174 average. Batters simply cannot hit his pitches. He’s like Francisco Liriano from the other side.
Remember with Glasnow that there are workload concerns as well, significant one. Here are Glasnow’s innings pitched marks as a professional.
2012: 38.1 innings
2013: 111.1 innings
2014: 124.1 innings
2015: 109.1 innings
2016: 84 innings
I can’t see how Glasnow throws anything more than 160-innings this season, can you? Given that fact, and all the walks, this is one guy that when called up I will be very reluctant to recommend if the cost is high. A lack of control and innings, seems like the kiss of death to me, talent be damned.
FULMER RUNNING UP AGAINST IT?
Michael Fulmer has been terrific in his first season in the big leagues. Over 11 starts he has a 7-2 record, 2.40 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 60 strikeouts in 63.2 innings. Over his last seven games he’s been stupendous with a 0.61 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP and a 5-1 record. It’s all good with the Tigers’ righty. Well…
Fulmer was pulled in his last start, with the bases loaded, after allowing one run in 4.1 innings. Why would the Tigers do that? Cause they are trying to limit Fulmer’s workload.
“You have to take the long view. If we can get him a few less innings now, we could hopefully still have him available for the last month of the season. That’s probably the smarter way to go,” manager Brad Ausmus said. Here’s what we know for sure.
1 – The Tigers want to keep Fulmer at 160 or fewer innings this season after he tossed 124 frames last season. “No one really knows what the ideal amount is. People like to say 25 to 30 percent more the following year in terms of innings. But people are still getting hurt all the time. I don’t know if there is any right answer. We just have to be cautious with him. We don’t want to be caught where we have to shut him down,” Ausmus said. “There’s no perfect answer. This is a fuzzy science. People have been trying to control innings to mitigate injuries. But guys are still getting injured. I don’t that there’s a hard-fast rule. I am sure we will play it a little bit by ear.” The most optimistic hope for Fulmer is that he throws 170-innings this season, even if Ausmus is trying to paint a pretty picture. It’s just not a lot of innings for someone you’re counting on in the fantasy game.
2 - The Tigers have no plan to shut down Fulmer which means they are going to do whatever they can to make sure that Fulmer still has bullets in September. “We are going to be careful with him now and hopefully he’s good through the entire season.” That means the Tigers could; (A) pull Fulmer in games whenever he hits a speed bump (like his last start), (B) skip starts, (C) try a 6-man rotation. Yep, they could. “It has been done before. The problem is, you end up being real short in the bullpen. It’s been done, but only for stretches,” Ausmus said. “We haven’t considered that. If they all pitch great, I guess we could.” While the Tigers might do that, it will not be on a consistent basis for months, it will be here and there. That makes planning for the week ahead particularly tricky with Fulmer.
The bottom line with Fulmer is this. You can’t expect him to be this good the rest of the way. The walk rate of 3.39 per nine is worse than the league average. The .260 BABIP is pretty low. It’s hard to think that he will continue to hold lefties to a .194 average and .233 SLG. There’s also the fact that he can’t pitch any better than he has been the last month plus. In fact, he cannot possibly keep up his pace. Bottom line – his 2016 value will never be higher than it is right now. With a looming innings pitched mark approaching quickly it’s likely a good time to investigate dealing Fulmer if your league mate is slow on the uptake and doesn’t understand that a innings cap is going to make Fulmer’s workload very uneven the next three months.
DFS DIAMONDS
*The following list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays.
CATCHER: Righties are bashing Nick Martinez’s brains out with a .368/.455/.409 slash line in the early going. His career WHIP is 1.47 while batters hit .276 against him. Ryan Hanigan has a chance to rap out some hits on the cheap.
FIRST BASE: Lefties have torched Wade LeBlanc to the tune of a .316/.368/.486 flash line for his career. Brandon Moss is a lefty, and over his last nine games he’s hit three homers with six RBI, even if he really struggles against lefties. LeBlanc just isn’t good.
SECOND BASE: Eric Surkamp is 0-5 with a 7.20 ERA and a 1.05 K/BB ratio. He’s used kitty litter. Johnny Giavotella is batting .300 at home this season. Over his last 10 games he’s produced seven RBI and 14 hits. Righties are batting .33 with a .412 OBP and .489 SLG against Surkamp this season.
THIRD BASE: Edinson Volquez has a 5.18 ERA in June and has struggled to throw strikes. Marwin Gonzalez is batting .324 with a .403 OBP and .456 SLG in the month of June.
SHORTSTOP: Elvis Andrus has hit .400 with six runs scored and seven steals over 33 plate appearances against David Price. He’s also owned lefties to a great extent this season hitting .367 with a .970 OPS. Yeah, that’s ownage.
OUTFIELD: Adam Jones has hit .272 with a .875 OPS in June. His effort includes an impressive eight homers, 20 RBI and 20 runs scored in the 21 games. He takes on Matt Moore with two homers and a .400 average over 20 at-bats.
OUTFIELD: Eduardo Escobar has produced a hit in 6-straight games. EE has scored a run in 6-straight games. EE has driven in at least one run in 6-straight games (nine total). EE has five hits in 10 at-bats against Masahiro Tanaka.
OUTFIELD: Lefties don’t cause much concern for Lorenzo Cain as he’s posted a .407/.475/.648 slash line this season. He’s been a bit down in June, but the tonic for that might just be Dallas Keuchel whom he is 5-for-12 against with a homer.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).