Madison Bumgarner is an absolute monster on the hill. I spoke about him yesterday in the Daily Dive video.
Jhoulys Chacin has made 13 starts this season with a 3-5 record, 5.50 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. He’s failed to record seven punchouts per nine at just 6.91. He’s also walking more batters than the league average at 3.45 per nine. It’s been even worse of late with 15 runs allowed, 14 earned, his last 12.1 innings. Move on.
Doug Fister is 8-3 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.20 WHIP for the Astros. Only once in his last 12 starts has Fister failed to throw at least six innings as he tossed 5.2 innings of two-run ball at the Orioles on May 24. That outing also happens to be the only time that Fister hasn’t thrown a quality start in 12 outings. That’s rather remarkable even if your name is Bumgarner or Zack Greinke as Fister has been a quality start machine for two months now. He’s still walking 3.07 batters per nine, far from encouraging given that his K/9 rate is still languishing at a terrible 5.54 per nine. Given his lack of heat there’s simply no way he will sustain his current rate of success with that 1.81 K/BB ratio. Be cautious, despite how good it looks on the surface.
Jaime Garcia has made 14 starts with a 5-6 record, 3.83 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. After posting a WHIP of 1.05 over 27 starts in 2014-15, that’s obviously disappointing. On the plus side he’s healthy, for now, though that is always an issue (he hasn’t thrown 130 innings in any of the last four seasons). Garcia has jacked up his K/9 rate to 7.54, well above the 6.73 rate he posted last season, but he’s also seen his walk rate increase to 2.95 per nine which would be a six-year high. The resulting 2.56 K/BB ratio would also be a six-year low. Still gotta love the 2.49 GB/FB ratio he’s tossing up there, but the increase in walks, and that injury filled past, still suggest extreme caution if you’re asking this scribe.
Kevin Gausman hasn’t been good. Did you catch my report about him yesterday, though, as to why he’s nowhere close to being an utter failure? Very instructive I would hope, at least for those of you in keeper leagues.
Miguel Gonzalez has a 4.20 ERA and 1.45 WHIP for the White Sox. Those are not playable numbers. However, he does have value in AL-only leagues. Here’s why. Gonzalez got bombed in two outings – his first of the year and a turn back on June 14 against the Tigers. In his other nine outings this season he’s been effective with the following numbers: 2.59 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. I can’t see why anyone would have used him in his first outing, but he’s only had one misstep in his last nine trips to the bump and that’s something.
John Lackey has made 14 starts for the Cubs and the numbers are pretty close to dominant: 7-3, 2.78 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 9.29 K/9 and 2.30 BB/9. In a career that began in 2002, the 37-year-old has literally never pitched better. Ever. If you can believe it, he’s been even better since the start of the month of May and this is where things get insane. Over his last 10 outings Lackey has a 1.97 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 9.17 K/9 and a 2.36 BB/9. Is there anyone who isn’t pitching well for the Cubs? This cannot possibly continue, can it? Everyone should just have Tommy John surgery at 34 years of age I guess. I would posit that selling high would be the prudent thing to do because hurlers don’t often post their finest season when they turn 38.
Jeff Locke shut out the Giants for 6.2 innings Monday. It doesn’t matter. Over his last three starts he still has a 10.57 ERA and 1.89 WHIP. That’s Tyler Glasnow you hear a knockin’…
Shelby Miller returned triumphantly to the big leagues this week tossing 6.2 innings of one run ball against… the Phillies. I’m as big a Miller fan as there is, no doubt about that one as I was the highest person in the fantasy universe on Miller last season (I scientifically checked like six sites), but we have to be realistic here. First off, he dominated a Phillies team that had Andres Blanco batting cleanup. Only one player on the club was hitting over .265 coming into the game (Odubel Herrera at .302) and Tommy Joseph who was hitting fifth as the big power bat in the lineup ending the game with one hit in eight games (1-for-31). Second, Miller’s mechanics were so jacked up earlier in the year that two dominant outings at High-A ball, and a strong effort against the Triple-A Phillies, doesn’t make him a must add in any format other than an NL-only one. Miller isn’t yet 26 years old. He often struggles with the walk, his 3.40 per nine mark is poor. Over 627.2 career innings Shelby owns a 3.48 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. Those marks are better than the big league average I will grant you, struggles and all, so all hope is far from lost. Keep an eye on him, but I would still suggest caution until we see more success.
Anibal Sanchez has actually improved. He’s allowed just two runs his last six outings. At the same time, you do remember that he’s working out of the bullpen and has thrown a total 9.2 innings with just two walks. Things always seem to be in flux with the Tigers starting rotation so there’s a chance that he could end up making consistent starts again, which should intrigue those of you in AL-only leagues. Keep an eye on those walks.
Drew Smyly continues to excel and to limp along at the same time. Just depends what you’re looking at. Over his last five outings he’s posted a sickly 7.22 ERA and 1.47 WHIP that is forcing folks to let him go. However, there are still reasons to suggest that holding on might not be a bad idea. Even during this bad stretch of games Smyly still has a 9.73 K/9 rate with a 1.57 BB/9 mark. That’s a Hall of Fame number of 6.20 in the K/BB category. For the season the mark is still Hall of Fame level at 4.95. Given that a K/BB ratio is one of the best numbers to look at if you’re trying to predict in-season success, it would seem that you shouldn’t lose all hope in Smyly. He’s gotta keep the ball in the yard, his 1.70 HR/9 mark is ghastly, but there has to be some pullback, even with a 49 percent fly ball rate. Speaking of that, the always fly ball prone lefty has never posted a fly ball rate over 44.3 percent, so it would stand to reason to think that some regression is coming. His 14.2 percent HR/FB rate is a match for the 14.3 percent mark from last year, but his 10.7 career mark suggests some pull back could come there too. Buy low, or hold.
DFS DIAMONDS
*The following list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays.
CATCHER: Righties are batting .302 with a .522 SLG versus Adam Morgan this season. Morgan has lost six of his last seven outings and he’s been blasted, BLASTED, for 10 homers his last five starts. Kurt Suzuki has hit three homers, with five doubles, his last 10 games (he also has 13 RBI). 
FIRST BASE: Anthony Rizzo has two homers and a .440 AVG with 1.142 OPS over 26 plate appearances versus Michael Wacha. Rizzo has hit three homers with seven RBI his last seven games.
SECOND BASE: Ian Kinsler is batting .379 with three homers against Hisashi Iwakuma (29 ABs). Kinsler is batting .314 with a .859 OPS at home and .313 with an .886 OPS at night.
THIRD BASE: Josh Donaldson has a .297/.425/.516 slash line against lefties. He has a .310/.404/.574 slash line at home. He has a .333/.476/.698 slash line in June. Robbie Ray has been hit hard by righties to the tune of a .298 batting average and .380 OBP.
SHORTSTOP: Zack Cozart hit a homer last night and has two in three games during which times he’s scored four times. Cole Hamels is the opponent, and Cozart has hit .400 against him in 15 at-bats. Cozart has also hit lefties this season, hard, with a .296/.350/.630 slash line.
OUTFIELD: Rickie Weeks has always hit lefties including this season with a .250/.364/.571 slash line in limited work. He’s mashed J.A. Happ over 21 plate appearances with two homers and a .421/.476/.895.
OUTFIELD: Matt Kemp is on pace to blow past 30 homers and 100 RBI. Over his last five games he has driven in six runners, and in six of his last 10 outings he’s produced at least two hits. He has a .316/.409/.605 line against Ubaldo with two homers and 10 runs over 44 plate appearances.
OUTFIELD: Odubel Herrera faces Kyle Gibson who has been a mess against lefties this season (.333/.397/.492). Herrera has hit righties very well with a .321/.416/.471 slash line.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).