WHITE HOT TOMAS
Yasmany Tomas hit two homers Wednesday night while driving in five runs. That’s the second time in four games he’s hit two homers. Folks are getting excited with the foreign born player. Let’s take a look.
Tomas does have 17 homers this season which is two more than Andrew McCutchen and three more than Ryan Braun. That’s great.
Here’s the downside with Tomas.
Tomas has four homers the last four games as noted above. Tomas has four homers his last… 19 games.
Tomas has hit two homers in a game five times this season. That means he’s hit 10 home runs in five games and seven home runs the other 81 games this season.
Are you really comfortable with that?
By the way his .262 batting average is barely league average.
His .305 OBP is below league average.
I highly doubt he will be able to maintain his current 23.9 percent HR/FB rate. It’s nearly double his rate last year by the way (13.0). He needs that massive mark because his 29.5 percent fly ball rate is about five percent below the league average.
He’s really just a 5th outfielder who has had a few really strong games this season.
NUNEZ TANKING?
Eduardo Nunez has been one of the best bargains in fantasy baseball. He’s on pace for 20 homers and 40 steals. He’s also on pace for 75 RBI and 75 runs scored. Oh yeah, he’s hitting .300 and qualifies at third base and shortstop. He’s been a STAR.
Reality check.
He’s not a 20 homer bat.
He’s not a 40 steal guy.
He’s not a .300 hitter.
The cracks are starting to show.
Over his last 10 games he has a .167 wOBA.
In July he’s hit .245.
In July he has a .267 OBP.
In July he has a .319 SLG.
In July he has one homer.
In July he has a .253 wOBA.
He’s stolen eight bases to continue to give him value, but this is the start of the end for Nunez as an elite performer. It would be wise to consider dealing him now before folks start to realize what is going on with Nunez, and what is likely to happen the final two months.
COLE SURGING
That’s more like it.
After missing more than a month of action, Gerrit Cole has returned and made three starts. His first outing was rough with five runs allowed over four innings. However, the last two starts have been vintage Cole: 13 strikeouts, one walk, two runs allowed over 15 innings. Really good to see.
I have a hard time putting out of my mind the totality of work done by Cole this season. However, he’s returned with a knuckle-curve, and that has seemed to vault him back to the level of extreme interest. Be cautiously optimistic. If you look at his work this season his K/9 is down, his BB/9 is up, his line drive rate is up, his GB/FB is down. His real saving grace has been three homers allowed in 15 starts. How long can he walk that tightrope? Trending in the right direction is he, but it’s too early to say Cole is “back.”
ZOBRIST STILL LISTING?
Ben Zobrist had a .752 OPS in April. People went, ho-hum.
He had a 1.137 OPS in May. People thought potential MVP.
He had a .708 OPS in June. People wondered what was wrong.
He has a .559 OPS in July. People are panicked.
Let me ask you all – who do you think the 35 year old veteran of 10+ seasons is? The answer is – he is who he is. On the year he has a .815 OPS. That mark would be a 4-year high. He has a career mark of .788 as well. His 1.13 BB/K ratio would be a career best. His .268 batting average is better than his .265 career mark. With one more homer he will have 14, a 4-year higher. He has 50 RBI this season after averaging 54 the past two seasons.
This one is on you folks. Zobrist is who he always is. In fact, he’s been even better than normal as we near the 2/3 mark for the 2016 season, even if you think there is something wrong.
ICE COLD HEYWARD
Jason Heyward has appeared in 91 games. He has four homers and eight steals. That’s pathetic.
Heyward has scored 42 runs. That’s passable.
Heyward has 28 RBI. That’s horrible.
Heyward is batting .229. That’s dreadful.
Heyward has a league average .317 OBP. That’s a lead average number and well below his .349 career mark. Blah.
Heyward has a .315 SLG which is more than .100 points below his career rate. That’s deplorable.
Over his last 35 games… he’s been worse.
Heyward has the following fantasy line in that time: .220-0-4-9-1. He also has a .579 OPS.
A great talent.
A complete fantasy waste.
At this point I can’t muster any anger if you move on from Heyward.
HOSMER JUST A GUY?
Eric Hosmer has been a strong producer this season. Or has he?
Over his last seven games Eric Hosmer has two hits.
Over his last 17 games Eric Hosmer has zero homers.
Over his last 39 games Eric Hosmer has one homer.
Over his last 39 games Eric Hosmer has hit .229.
Over his last 39 games Eric Hosmer has a .289 OBP.
Over his last 39 games Eric Hosmer has a .294 SLG.
Ugh is right.
Eric Hosmer, who started so dang well this season, is on pace for a .286-21-85-80-6 line.
Last season he went .297-18-93-98-7.
He is what he is. Solid, nothing more.
DFS DIAMONDS
*The following list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays.
CATCHER: Kurt Suzuki takes on Ubaldo Jimenez, he of the .302/.389/.367 slash line against righties. Suzuki has a hit in six of seven games and has a .354 batting average his last 36 games.
FIRST BASE: Jose Abreu faces John Lackey who has allowed a homer in each of his last seven starts and 10 homers total in that time as his season long ERA has shot up from 2.66 to 3.79 (he has a 6.12 ERA his last seven starts).
SECOND BASE: Jedd Gyorko has a .627 SLG versus righties this season. He has a 1.036 OPS in July. Over his last 10 games he’s gone deep seven times with 11 RBI. I know he faces Jose Fernandez, but how do you go against Jedd?
THIRD BASE: Maikel Franco has hit .556 with a homer and two doubles in nine at-bats against Matt Wisler. Over his last three starts Wisler has allowed six homers and 17 runs (15.1 innings).
SHORTSTOP: J.J. Hardy has two hits in five of seven games and six of 10. He’s hitting .347 with a .882 OPS in July. He’s gone 3-for-7 against Kyle Gibson.
OUTFIELD: Eddie Rosario has hit .348 with a .923 OPS in 17 games in July. Lefties have hit .345 with a .433 OBP and .491 SLG against Ubaldo Jimenez.
OUTFIELD: Robbie Ray has allowed righties to bat .281 with a .358 OBP this season. Hernan Perez has a .494 SLG against lefties this season. He’s batting .342 with a homer, nine RBI and four steals his last 11 games.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).