Chris Archer struck out 11 batters over six innings while allowing two runs… in Colorado in his last start. He’s sporting an elite 10.73 K/9, but there are issues. His HR/9 of 1.46 is crazy high while the walks continue to weigh him down (3.72 per nine). Archer has walked just five batters his last three starts but in two of those outings he allowed four runs (he’s actually allowed four or more five times in seven starts). He just can’t get out of his own way and find a groove.
Bartolo Colon throws a fastball 87.6 percent of the time. It’s insane. Despite throwing one pitch he has eight wins, a 3.48 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP thanks to impeccable control. How many of you realize that his 1.74 BB/9 mark, a top-10 mark in baseball, would be a five year high? It’s truly amazing. The K/9 rate is down to 5.80, and his 1.24 HR/9 mark is a six year high thanks to seven homers allowed his last five. It seems like at any point his ship could run aground, but we’ve been saying that for about five years now.
Patrick Corbin was on my ‘draft late, this guy has nice skills list.’ Crap. He’s 4-9 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. He has looked terrible virtually all year long. The strikeout rate is down to 6.71. The walk rate has exploded to 3.59 per ninth after being at 2.33 or less the previous three seasons. After holding batters below a homer per nine innings his last two seasons the mark is all the way up at 1.56 per nine. His velocity is unchanged. His pitch deployment is pretty much the same as well. He’s just making bad pitches. Hope isn’t lost for the future, but it pretty much is for 2016.
Anthony DeSclafani is 5-0 with a 2.50 ERA and 1.21 WHIP through eight starts for the Reds. Anthony was mentioned many times in the Fantasy Alarm Draft Guide this season as someone with strong, albeit less than elite, skills. About the only concern that was noted was workload concerns. Well, he missed so much time with an oblique issue that frames are not a concern at this point. He’s racking up quality outings, again, without doing anything at an elite level other than limiting the walk (1.61 per nine). The 7.15 K/9 is just off his career rate of 7.29. The 0.89 HR/9 mark is just off his 0.87 career rate. His .320 BABIP is a direct match for his career mark. His 1.11 GB/FB ratio is just off his 1.23 career number. His 21.9 percent line drive rate is one tenth above his career level. He doesn’t deserve the 2.50 ERA, the mark should be at least a run higher, so keep that in mind before you go nuts with Desclafani love.
Doug Fister ain’t great, but the man can pitch. Through 19 starts he has 10 victories, a 3.42 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Over his last 17 starts he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs 15 times. That’s pretty remarkable. Too bad he has 74 strikeouts which is less than the 82 reliever Dellin Betances has posted in just 47 innings. Fister doesn’t miss bats and walks too many, but he also rarely gets blow up.
Gio Gonzalez ain’t great, but he’s rounding into form. Over his last three outings he’s allowed six runs over 17.2 innings. He’s not going to be giving up his spot in the Nationals’ rotation folks, so those of you hoping on Lucas Giolito or Reynaldo Lopez starring for you had better hope that Joe Ross (shoulder) isn’t healthy any time soon (though he is expected to be).
Miguel Gonzalez is really only an option in AL-only leagues. He was obliterated for eight runs back on June 25th, but in the other five of his last six outings he’s allowed three earned runs or less every time. Also only permitted two homers in those five games. He’s very similar to Fister actually, with less consistency of course.
Jeremy Hellickson might be dealt by the Phillies after 20 starts with a 3.84 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. In five of his last six outings he’s tossed a quality start, and in a deep mixed league of mine I’m kicking myself a bit for not picking him up four starts ago (I watched him very closely at a game in San Francisco that I attended and I was very impressed. A couple of drinks after the game and I forgot to bid on him the next day). He’s nothing great, but he’s in a nice groove and he’s also giving innings have lasted six frames in 12-of-13 starts.
Carlos Martinez has nine wins, a 2.83 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP a season after he put up 14 wins, a 3.01 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. That’s success. He’s also cut his walk rate a bit, from 3.16 last season to 2.91 this season. He’s also virtually replicated his stinginess with the big fly as he has knocked two hundredths off the 0.65 HR/9 mark he posted last season. A few concerns however. (1) He owns an 80.1 percent left on base rate. There are usually, at best, four or five guys that post a mark that high each year, at best. (2) After more than a strikeout per inning last season, 184 in 179.2 frames, the rate has tumbled all the way down to 7.56 per nine. He’s “earned” that too as his swinging strike rate has fallen from 10.5 percent down to 8.9 this season. The main culprit has been his changeup. Last year batters had a swinging strike rate of 21.6 percent, a season after the mark was 17.5 percent. This year batters have a mere 13.3 percent rate. He’s still a fine hurler, and no reason to think his performance will slow, but without a return of the strikeouts he just very good and not borderline elite.
DFS DIAMONDS
*The following list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays.
CATCHER: Righties are batting .278 with a .380 OBP against Logan Verrett this season. J.T. Realmuto is batting .352 in July with a .407 OBP and six steals while he’s hit .346 with a .829 OPS against righties this season.
FIRST BASE: Mike Napoli has a homer and two RBI each of the last two games. Going back nine contests the numbers astound including five homers, 11 RBI and 11 runs scored. Good luck with that Dylan Bundy.
SECOND BASE: Brock Holt has a hit in 9-of-10 games and he’s scored nine runs in that time. The lefty swinger takes on Kyle Gibson who hasn’t gotten lefties out at all this season (.313/.362/.454).
THIRD BASE: Jacob Turner is making his second start of the year and owns a 5.14 ERA and 1.48 WHIP for his career. Righties mash this guy with a .299/.349/.453 slash line. Nick Castellanos mashes righties with a .322/.360/.547 line and 12 homers in 258 at-bats this season.
SHORTSTOP: Jake Odorizzi has seen his ERA go from 3.46 to 4.39 his last 10 starts as he’s allowed 10 homers. Righties have hit .279 with .733 OPS against him this season. Marcus Semien has a homer and three hits in four at-bats against Odorizzi. He’s also posted a .461 SLG at home this season and a .485 mark at night
OUTFIELD: Ryan Braun has scored seven runs his last five games. He has a hit in 6-straight. He’s hit .328 with two homers against Jason Hammel in 23 at-bats.
OUTFIELD: Charlie Blackmon has hit .331 at home with a .911 OPS. He’s hit .318 with a .860 OPS in night games. He’s hitting .319 with a .894 OPS against righties and faces Julio Teheran. He’s riding a 13-game hitting streak.
OUTFIELD: Max Kepler has hit three homers with six RBI his last eight games. Limited work, but in four games against Boston his slash line sparkles (.375/.412/.625). Eduardo Rodriguez has not been able to get lefties out in limited work this season (.367/.424/.485).
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).