THE AARON SANCHEZ PLAN
I’ve written about this so many times now my head is starting to hurt. As we sit here on August 5th, the Blue Jays are officially maintaining that Aaron Sanchez will remain a starting pitcher. Of course, there are some caveats.
Here is what GM Ross Atkins had to say about Sanchez. "That's the question, that's what we're focused on, and what we're trying not to do is paint ourselves into a corner. We're also thinking about all of the alternatives. It's amazing how many ideas have come out of this, and they have come from so many different places. The fact that we're getting closer to September helps.”
A further Atkins quote from Shi Davidi.
“Look, there’s no perfect answer, there’s no absolute,” Atkins admitted. “We have all of the math, of course… He feels good, he’s recovering well, we’re not seeing fatigue in any way and (if) we get into an area that’s unprecedented, we’re hopeful that happens.”
Here is what manager John Gibbons said. “We laid out a plan in spring training we thought was the perfect plan back then. Sanchie’s been so good and so strong, he hasn’t labored, so things started changing.”
I read that and I think Sanchez is still headed to the bullpen at some point. Heck, Atkins said as much later in his conversation.
“We want to be thoughtful with him and, really, we’re going to go start-to-start and make sure that fatigue isn’t setting in, recovery is fine. We were feeling pretty confident that the ‘pen was the solution until the recent acquisition [of Francisco Liriano], and what we’ve been consistent in saying that his recovery and fatigue, or lack thereof, and effectiveness is probably the most important piece of the puzzle.”
It is true that we don’t know for certain where the breaking point is. For some guys it’s a 30-inning increase. For others it’s 60-innings. Others it’s adding 500 pitches. Some it’s adding 1,500 pitches. There is no definitive answer, I will grant that.
What I do know is that they Jays are seemingly putting Sanchez at risk. To reiterate, yet again… Sanchez threw 109.2 innings in 2013. In 2014 he threw 133.1 innings. In 2015 he threw 102 innings. This season he’s already up to 139.1 innings. Sanchez is in the “area” where folks consider it acceptable to start cutting innings. Speaking of that, the Jays will be doing that.
After all of the above, here is the money shot of the piece: the Blue Jays are moving to a 6-man rotation. “…the more we thought about the potential of a six- man rotation not just benefiting Aaron but benefiting the others in the rotation at this point in the season," Atkins said. So here is what we get, a rotation of Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, R.A. Dickey, J.A. Happ, Marco Estrada and Francisco Liriano.
How will the pitchers react to an extra day of rest? That’s a good question to ask.
There’s also workload.
The Jays have played 109 games this season. That leaves them 53 games.
If they were using five men in the rotation that would be 10.6 starts each.
With a six-man rotation the number drops to 8.8 starts each.
If they stick to the 6-man plan the rest of the season each “starter” would lose roughly two starts.
The real question is – how much rope will Sanchez receive? Will they allow him to continue to start, even if the results slip a bit, or will they watch a bad outing or two and panic, just like managers do when they send that starting pitcher out for the 8th inning only to remove him when the first batter gets on with a single?
We shall see.
CHANGING OF THE GUARD IN SEATTLE?
Mike Zunino has started 10 of 13 games behind the dish for the Mariners as Chris Iannetta starts to recede from importance. “We’re going to give Mike a chance to play,” manager Scott Servais said. “This year is about Mike Zunino and putting him in a good spot. Keeping him going. We’ve got to find out what we’ve got.” That decision was made much easier since Chris Iannetta has hit .132 over his last 22 games. Iannetta is also playing poorish defense, an area where Zunino certainly has an edge.
Zunino has hit .263 with five homers in 13 games, an excellent level of production. He’s also cut his strikeout rate this season, though 26.1 percent isn’t a great rate (12 strikeouts in 46 plate appearances). He has walked seven times, a 15.2 percent rate which is three times his career level (5.5). That’s not going to continue. We need some time with Zunino to settle. By that I mean we cannot rush to judgement with Zunino who has been a terrible hitter the last three years simply because of a good two weeks. I mean, his HR/FB ratio is almost triple his career rate as well at 35.7 percent this season versus the 12.8 percent mark he entered the 2016 season with.
Zunino is a second catching option in mixed leagues at the moment, mid to lower level, nothing more.
DFS DIAMONDS
*The following list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays.
CATCHER: Brian McCann has a hit in 9-straight games. Remarkably, he has exactly one hit in each outing. In 231 at-bats against righties this season he has 12 homers. Josh Tomlin has allowed 12 homers to lefties this season in 191 at-bats.
FIRST BASE: Justin Morneau has two homers and has hit .545 against Yovani Gallardo (6-for-11). He has two homers his last five games. He’s produced a hit in 6-straight games and 9-of-10 outings for the White Sox.
SECOND BASE: Daniel Murphy is batting .420 with a 1.306 OPS in 15 games since the All-Star break with four homers, seven doubles and 14 RBI. He has a 1.058 OPS against righties this season, and he’s gone 6-for-12 with a homer against Max Scherzer in his career.
THIRD BASE: Evan Longoria has a .530 SLG and .852 OPS against righties this season. He’s also hit 21 homers with 18 doubles in 334 at-bats against righties. He’s gone 8-for-20 with three homers and a 1.285 OPS against Ervin Santana.
SHORTSTOP: Cliff Pennington has a .311/.326/.44 slash line against Felix Hernandez over 46 plate appearances. We’re going BvP here, on the cheap.
OUTFIELD: Ryan Rua has hit .325/.398/.488 against lefties this season. He’s always bashed Dallas Keuchel as well with a .538/.571/.692 slash line in 14 plate appearances.
OUTFIELD: Gregory Polanco has three homers and a .798 OPS in 12 games since the All-Star break. He’s also hit a robust .293/.367/.511 against righties this season. He takes on the surging Anthony DeSclafani.
OUTFIELD: Hyun Soo Kim has hit .358/.430/.491 against righties this season. The slash line since the All-Star Break is even better (.375/.464/.500). He faces Miguel Gonzalez Friday.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 8 PM EDT, on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 11 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).