WHAT’S WRONG WITH ZACK GREINKE?
Zack Greinke was beaten for 11 hits and seven runs Monday night against the Cardinals. Through five starts, Greinke is the owner of a 6.16 ERA and 1.47 WHIP and there is a bit of quiet panic in the streets. Is it warranted?
Greinke has a mere 7.04 K/9 rate which is two batters below his 2014 mark and one batter below his 2015 rate. His velocity is the same as it’s been the last three years. He’s throwing his pitches at the same rates that he tosses them in 2015, almost identical really. Strange. Likely sample size based.
Greinke is walking 1.76 batters per nine innings. That’s right in line with his marks the past two seasons (1.91 and 1.62 the last two seasons).
Greinke has a 1.35 GB/FB ratio this season. Last year the mark was 1.46.
That’s a lot of similarity for a guy who has looked so bad to this point.
A huge issue for Greinke has been the big fly. In each of the past four seasons he’s posted a HR/9 rate under 0.86. This season, through five starts mind you, he’s allowed 1.47 homers per nine. I know he’s in a more conducive park to give up the homer in Arizona, but this is pretty ridiculous. His fly ball rate is above where it has been the last five years, but it’s not like a 35.2 percent fly ball is anything to be ashamed about. The real blame is his 13.5 percent HR/FB ratio which is well above his 9.2 percent career mark. This seems like a sample size anomaly given his skills and track record.
There’s also the absurdly high, for him, .333 BABIP. That mark would be his worst mark since 2005 and it would be well above his four-year high of .311. Not that it’s directly related in an overwhelming way, but note that Greinke has a 17.1 percent line drive rate this season which would be a career best.
In sum I would say this: Greinke will be fine. That doesn’t mean he’s posting a sub-2 ERA or sub-0.90 WHIP. Hopefully, you understood that on draft day. There’s no reason to think, even with this rough start, that he can’t at least match his career ratios of 3.39 and 1.19 (ERA and WHIP). Too good to fail is Greinke.
WHO IS DELINO DESHIELDS?
Delino DeShields was dropped to ninth in the order Monday, though manager Jeff Bannister insisted it was due to the Yankees throwing a righty so he wanted to stack the top of the lineup with lefties (for more on that righty, Nathan Eovaldi who was the opponent Monday night, see his Player Profile). DD has gone 2-for-20 of late to drop his batting average down to .242. He’s still getting on base at a decent rate with a .333 OBP, but this is a limited player. Over the course of 139 big league games he’s hit three homers with 41 RBI. Those are poor numbers. His .259 batting average is just slightly above the league average. He stands out in two categories, and to continue to do so he will likely have to maintain his spot near the top of the Rangers order. Delino has 27 thefts and 94 runs scored, two impressive numbers in this day and age. Some use, sure, but the early season pace that had folks thinking 35 steals and 100 runs scored, seems like that’s a pipe dream.
WHO IS JONATHAN SCHOOP?
I tried to warn you in his preseason Player Profile.
Eighteen games into the season Jonathan Schoop is on pace for about 25 homers. Good for him.
That’s it. That’s all the good.
Through 18 games Schoop is on pace to score about 40 runs. That’s embarrassing.
He’s hitting a pathetic .210.
He’s getting on base at a pathetic .268 pace.
He’s the owner of a pathetic .286 OBP.
Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, again, but Jonathan Schoop really can’t hit.
Through 882 big league plate appearances he has a .236 batting average, .268 OBP and .408 SLG.
Since 2013 a league average hitter has posted a .257 batting average, .021 points higher than Schoop.
Since 2013 a league average hitter has posted a .319 OBP, .051 points higher than Schoop.
Since 2013 a league average hitter has posted a .405 SLG, .003 points lower than Schoop.
He has tons of power for a middle infield option, but I’m sorry, he’s just not a good hitter.
AL-ONLY TIDBIT
Hank Conger hasn’t thrown out a runner in the last 48 attempts which is beyond ghastly. “Right now we’re trying to get the footwork down,” Conger said. “Once that happens I think everything else will be fine.” 
Uh huh. Sorry, it ain’t happening. That means Curt Casali has been coming in late in games as a defensive replacement, and he could also start to steal starts as the club simply can’t continue to allow teams to run at will. Casali is no great shakes with the bat, but increased playing time could lead to a decent power option as a second catcher. He’s only hit .199 with 11 homers in 211 career at-bats though, so we’re talking Mike Zunino territory here.
NL-ONLY TIDBIT
Travis d’Arnaud is dealing now dealing with a shoulder issue and he’s visiting doctor’s. He CANNOT stay healthy. If he hits the DL, as seems likely, two things happen. (1) I’m done with him. I can no longer continue to push a guy on people who simply cannot stay on the field. (2) Kevin Plawecki becomes the daily catcher for the Mets and a strong target in only leagues. The 25-year-old righty swinger was a first round selection in 2012. Appearing in 80 games with the Mets, Kevin has hit a mere .216 with three homers and 23 RBIs. Plawecki also has a mere .570 OPS with a 23.7 percent strikeout rate and 47 percent ground ball rate. There’s not a bat here that excites at this point, but with every day playing time his outlook would obviously be on the rise.
DFS DIAMONDS
*The following list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays.
CATCHER: Chris Iannetta is the owner of a 1.134 OPS against lefties with a 22.7 percent walk rate and .492 wOBA. He faces Dallas Keuchel who has allowed a .274 batting average and .351 OBP to righties this season.
FIRST BASE: Albert Pujols hit two homers last night. Tonight he faces Edinson Volquez who he’s also homered twice off of in 10 at-bats as he’s gone .400/.571/1.100 over 14 plate appearances in the matchup.
SECOND BASE: Ian Kinsler has a .525 wOBA in the early going, an excellent mark that places him sixth in all of baseball. He faces Rich Hill in Detroit.
THIRD BASE: Justin Turner has a .556/.667/1.00 slash line versus Tom Koehler. Turner is a noted righty smasher with a .295/.360/.436 slash line for his career.
SHORTSTOP: Jordy Mercer has been an elite performer this season against lefties with a massive .525 wOBA. His effort includes a .563 OBP and 1.225 OPS. He gets to rip in Colorado off the struggling Jorge De La Rosa.
OUTFIELD: Gregor Blanco has five hits in 12 at-bats against James Shields (.417 with a .500 OBP). He has four hits and three runs scored his last two starts. Blanco is also batting .438 with a 1.313 OPS in nine home games this season.
OUTFIELD: Jon Jay has a hit in seven of his last eight games. He’s not exactly tearing it up in that time with just three hits in his last four outings, but he’s consistently done something. He takes on Jonny Cueto and over the course of 31 plate appearances in the matchup he’s ripped it up like a madman (.414/.500/.759).
OUTFIELD: Melky Cabrera has two homers, four RBI, four runs and a 1.111 OPS over 18 plate appearances against R.A. Dickey. He’s also been on fire the last seven games with two homers, four RBI, seven runs scored and a .513 wOBA.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).