This spring names like Yoan Moncada, Andrew Benintendi and Dansby Swanson will be all the rage. We will spend all spring extoling their talents, their potential to be fantasy difference makers and peeps will be salivating at the thought of adding one of them on draft day. However, recent history is strongly suggestive that if you have the expectation that any rookie will be anything other than a replacement level player in the fantasy game that you will be disappointed.

This whole deal is one of my biggest bugaboos. I spend all preseason trying to talk down the outlook of rookies. I try to warn folks away from counting on rookies. I try to warn folks not to spend too much $ or too early a draft pick on a player who isn’t established. I usually fail to make much of a dent there. Why? Because for every Corey Seager or Trea Turner folks forget the failures of guys like Hector Oliver and Jose Berrios. For every Trevor Story folks forget that even hot starting rookies, guys like Nomar Mazara, often end the year kinda being just a guy in the fantasy game. So, let me try one more time.

My general advice with rookie is as follows.

1 – Never draft a rookie in the first five rounds (it’s up to you if you want to burn an early fantasy selection on a “rookie” who really isn’t, one of those 26 year olds from another country).

2 – I wouldn’t tell anyone it’s a good idea to draft a player in his first season in the first 10 rounds of a fantasy draft in anything other than a keeper league.

3 – It’s fine to spend a 24th round selection on a rookie. It’s fine to spend $6 of your $260 on a rookie. But you have to be smart about how you invest your resources. At the right time, at the right cost, you can let er’ rip with a rookie. The right time for that expenditure is at a moderate cost. It’s not early or for big dollars. It just doesn’t work when you invest heavily in rookies (we will discuss this fact below). There is so much uncertainty for young players – playing time, splits, performance, mental aspect of the game, how they handle pressure/traveling/lifestyle – that it makes very little sense to think of rookies as a player you will be able to count on. As a luxury? Absolutely do that. As a player, you are needing to come through? Don’t do that.

4 – I will often see folks who take shots on 2-4 rookies on their club. That’s simply too much exposure to the first year fellas. Two rookies would be my max, but even then it’s based on a myriad of factors, not the least of which is the size of your league. If you’re in a 15-team mixed league taking a shot on rookies is way more advisable that doing so in a 10-team league. The thinner the league, the less you should be looking to first year players.

5 – Rookies are called up more frequently than they used to be, and earlier than they used to be in terms of the age on their birth certificates. This fact should be factored in to how you handle rookies. Point being, if a young player fails don’t be afraid to move on. There will be another young player being called up for playing time in no time.

6 – Note that the majority of what was written above refers to draft season. Once we get in-season the rules do change a bit tilting to rookies. However, you still need to be careful to avoid overspending in a trade while being cautious not to blow your FAAB on a minor leaguer turned big leaguer.

THE STUDY

Let’s take a quick look at the past four seasons of rookies. These were, generally speaking, the top-20 players at the beginning of each season that were thought to have a strong chance to contribute in the fantasy game. As you will see the elite young talents usually fail in their first season. It’s just a fact.

Hit (a fantasy performer or note), Pass (replacement level stuff) and Miss (it’s obvious what this one means).

2016 Rookies

Hit, Miss, Pass

Corey Seager

Hit

Byron Buxton

Miss

Steven Matz

Hit

Jose Berrios

Miss

Blake Snell

Pass

Julio Urias

Miss

Trea Turner

Hit

Nomar Mazara

Pass

Tyler Glasnow

Miss

Lucas Giolito

Miss

Trevor Story

Hit

Yoan Moncada

Miss

Tim Anderson

Hit

Josh Bell

Miss

Hector Olivera

Miss

Byung-Ho Park

Miss

A.J. Reed

Miss

Max Kepler

Pass

Joey Gallo

Miss

Alex Reyes

Miss

Of the 20 total rookies:

Five Hit. Three Passed. Twelve Missed

Let’s look back to 2015.

2015 Rookies

Hit, Pass, Miss

Kris Bryant

Hit

Joc Pederson

Pass

Jorge Soler

Miss

Yasmany Tomas

Miss

Rusney Castillo

Miss

Dalton Pompey

Miss

Aaron Sanchez

Miss

Steve Souza

Pass

Daniel Norris

Miss

Archie Bradley

Miss

Noah Syndergaard

Hit

Dylan Bundy

Miss

Hector Olivera

Miss

Carlos Rodon

Pass

Francisco Lindor

Hit

Carlos Correa

Hit

Maikel Franco

Hit

Miguel Sano

Pass

Joey Gallo

Miss

Byron Buxton

Miss

Of the 20 total rookies:

Five Hit. Four Passed. Eleven Missed

What about 2014?

2014 Rookies

Hit, Pass, Miss

Oscar Taveras

Miss

Xander Bogaerts

Pass

Taijuan Walker

Miss

Javier Baez

Miss

Archie Bradley

Miss

George Springer

Pass

Gregory Polanco

Pass

Addison Russell

Miss

Trevor Bauer

Pass

Jon Gray

Miss

Travis d'Arnaud

Miss

Jameson Taillon

Miss

Nick Castellanos

Pass

Kevin Gausman

Miss

Yordano Ventura

Hit

Dylan Bundy

Miss

Mark Appel

Miss

Byron Buxton

Miss

Noah Syndergaard

Miss

Jose Abreu

Hit

Of the 20 total rookies:

Two Hit. Five Passed. Thirteen Missed

Finally, 2013.

2013 Rookies

Hit, Pass, Miss

Wil Myers

Pass

Gerrit Cole

Hit

Jurickson Profar

Miss

Oscar Taveras

Miss

Trevor Bauer

Miss

Jose Fernandez

Hit

Travis d'Arnaud

Miss

Zack Wheeler

Pass

Christian Yelich

Pass

Tyler Skaggs

Miss

Shelby Miller

Hit

Danny Hultzen

Miss

Jon Singleton

Miss

Nick Castellanos

Miss

Xander Bogaerts

Miss

Javier Baez

Miss

Mike Olt

Miss

Anthony Rendon

Miss

Nolan Arenado

Pass

Mike Zunino

Miss

Of the 20 total rookies:

Three Hit. Four Passed. Thirteen Missed

Let’s total everything up.

TOTALS

Over the last four years, the top-20 rookies each year, lead us to a total of 80 players in this very cursory study of first year players. Of that list of 80 players...

15 HIT

16 PASSED

49 MISSED

To say it another way.

Over the last four years the top-20 options have returned a “hit,” i.e. a truly legitimate fantasy season, 18.8 percent of the time. Those rookies that were solid, replacement level types, were 20.0 percent of the players. As for those that missed, that group encapsulates  61.3 percent of the efforts. To say it another way…

61.3 percent of the top level rookies, the last four years, have failed to meet even a modest level pf expectation. Moreover, more than 81 percent of the top-20 rookies, the last four seasons, have failed to produce a truly relevant fantasy season.

We can all point to the first timers that hit, the guys that won us championships in the fantasy game, but the fact is that the majority of the time the players that step on the field for the first time simply fail to be the player we think they will be.

I know no one is listening... but I will continue to try and bring sanity to the rookie situation.