Below are stacks to consider for Friday’s 13-game main slate.
Colorado Rockies
Let’s get the chalk out of the way to start. Colorado is at home this weekend hosting the D-Backs, and tonight Kyle Freeland will take on Taijuan Walker. The two teams have the two highest expected run totals in Vegas (shocking), but it’s the Rockies who are more appealing.
Freeland has managed Coors Field quite well this season with a 3.30 ERA at home over 73.2 innings. A healthy 54 percent ground ball rate is certainly helping in that regard. Freeland has also been pitching well of late with both an ERA and xFIP under 4.00 since the All-Star Break and a strikeout rate above 20 percent.
Walker has a 3.38 ERA since the Break, but his xFIP is over a full run higher at 4.40 thanks to a strikeout rate that has dipped. Walker has struggled in his career against active Rox allowing them to post a combined .415 wOBA against him in 94 total PA.
Charlie Blackmon is the obvious guy to use against the right-handed Walker given his 152 wRC+ vs. RHP this season. Mark Reynolds has also been above average against righties this season and is 4-for-8 in his career against Walker with two home runs and a double. If you’re looking for cash exposure to Rockies, those are your guys. If you wanted to stack Rox, Blackmon leads off and Reynolds hits fifth, so you’d want to include Gerardo Parra, who hits fourth and is above average against righties, and either DJ Lemahieu or Nolan Arenado to streamline the stack.
Texas Rangers
We’re still in chalk territory here as the Rangers have the sixth highest expected run total in Vegas tonight, but with Coors being in play and some other obvious targets like Baltimore, Ranger ownership percentages might not be through the roof.
Weather is not very hitter-friendly around the league tonight with cooler temperatures in most ball parks and very few hitter-friendly winds. It’s a bit cooler in Texas than normal, but their game time temperature of 87 degrees is still the highest in the league today and thus the most hitter-friendly.
Texas will face the Angels with Tyler Skaggs on the hill. Skaggs has been back in the rotation for five starts with mediocre results. His ERA sits at 4.56 in those five with his xFIP at a nearby 4.50. Skaggs has struggled with control, walking about three-and-a-half batters per nine since his return, and he’s had a little trouble with the long ball, allowing 1.4 home runs per nine innings.
Adrian Beltre has been superb against lefties this season with a 202 wRC+ and a walk rate against them that’s damn near double his strikeout rate. Robinson Chirinos has also been good against lefties with a 158 wRC+ and a .241 ISO. Lefty Joey Gallo has been just fine without the platoon advantage with a 132 wRC+ and .308 ISO against same-handed pitching. Elvis Andrus, Shin-Soo Choo and Delino Deshields have all also been slightly above average against lefties, so that should be enough names to allow you to build a cohesive stack.
Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto is in Baltimore tonight taking on Kevin Gausman and the Blue Jays. Gausman has had a bizarre season. He’s been solid in the second half with a 3.46 ERA in nine starts, but his ERA still sits at 4.98 for the season thanks to a terrible first half. His recent form might push you off Blue Jays, but he hasn’t been as good as it might seem.
Gausman is still struggling with control with a 3.29 BB/9 since the Break, and he’s still prone to the long ball with a HR/9 mark of 1.98 in the second half. His hard contact rate allowed since the Break is 35.1 percent, which is the sixth highest rate among today’s probable starters, and is surely a large contributor to his struggles keeping the ball in the park.
Toronto has hit Gausman well over the course of his career as they have a combined .380 wOBA against him in a total of 157 PA. No one Blue Jay stands out as having done the bulk of the damage, but, except for Jose Bautista, just about every regular on the team has hit him well in their career.
Josh Donaldson, Ezequiel Carrera, and Justin Smoak have been Toronto’s best hitters against righties this year as all three have a wRC+ north of 130 against RHP. Steve Pearce has also been above average against them with a 107 wRC+.
Toronto is a more contrarian stack as they only have the 15th highest expected total in Vegas today. As mentioned above, their opponent, Baltimore, is a chalkier play with the third highest expected run total. If you’re looking for a game stack, this is a solid option. Coors is too chalky for that kind of stack, but Toronto’s lower expected run total allows you to stack some chalky Orioles along with Jays.