Happy Memorial Day, FA Nation! Memorial Day means summer is nigh and the air is getting warmer. Warmer temperatures favor hitters, and there are certainly a few spots today where higher temps contribute to some stack appeal. It’s also a weak crop of starters going on the holiday, so there is no shortage of stack options.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The warmest game of the day will be this afternoon in St. Louis where the Cardinals host the Dodgers. The Cards will send Mike Leake and his 1.91 ERA to the mound, but don’t let that ERA scare you off a Dodgers stack. The Dodgers have the fourth best wRC+ vs. RHP, and Leake hasn’t been pitching as well as his ERA would indicate.
What Leake has done well this season are the same things he always does well, limit walks and keep the ball on the ground at a good clip. But Leake has done something well this season that he has not done in the past, which is keep the ball in the yard when he does allow hitters to elevate. Despite being a ground ball pitcher, Leake always has a HR/9 around the average of 1.00 because his HR/FB rate has consistently been higher than the average of about 10 percent. This year his HR/FB rate is only 8.5 percent, and when that regresses, his ERA will come back to the pack.
The warm temperatures in St. Louis and LA’s success against righties make this game a candidate for some Leake regression. Switch-hitting Yasmani Grandal has always been better from the left side and has a .401 wOBA vs. RHP this season. Corey Seager has a .400 wOBA vs. RHP for his career. Those two hit 2-3 in the order typically and are where you should start a Dodgers stack.
Cody Bellinger has an absurd .309 ISO in his first 92 PA vs. RHP, but he has been hitting down the order lately. He was hitting cleanup but he has hit sixth or seventh in each of the last three games. If he ends up back in the cleanup spot, that makes for an easy three-man Dodgers stack. But if he’s down the order, you could bridge the gap from Grandal to Bellinger with Chris Taylor who has a 146 wRC+ without the platoon advantage this season.
New York Mets
The Mets will host the Brewers this afternoon and will face Matt Garza. Current Mets have a combined 140 PA against Garza in their careers, and they have a combined .396 wOBA against him. Jay Bruce, who is riding a six-game hitting streak, has had the most success against him with three home runs and a .480 wOBA in 35 PA, and Asdrubal Cabrera has taken him deep twice in 11 PA.
The Mets are right at average against right-handers this season with a wRC+ of 100, and they have an above average ISO vs. RHP of .181 that ranks 11th in the league. Their lefties have a .219 ISO vs. RHP, which is the fourth best mark in the league. Garza has struggled with lefties this year allowing a .374 wOBA to them with a 1.93 HR/9.
Michael Conforto has been New York’s best lefty against righties this year with a 175 wRC+ and .325 ISO against them. Conforto got the night off last night and should be back in the leadoff spot today. Bruce usually hits third and is followed by Neil Walker and Lucas Duda before getting to Asdrubal at six. Duda has a 144 wRC+ vs. RHP in 97 PA so far this season, and Walker has a solid .184 ISO vs. RHP this season.
Colorado Rockies
We won’t spend too much time on this since you know stacks in Coors are always an option. But the Rox are especially appealing today against Seattle’s Sam Gaviglio. Gaviglio is making just his third major league start, and he has not shown the ability to miss bats at any level. His strikeout rate in Triple-A was below 20 percent, and he has just seven strikeouts in his first 13 major league innings. The Rockies do have some swing-and-miss tendencies, but they should be able to put plenty of balls in play at Coors, or better yet, out of play and out of the park.
Charlie Blackmon is quite obviously the best option against a right-hander, and the right-handed hitters that typically follow him in the order, DJ Lemahieu, Nolan Arenado and Mark Reynolds all have above average park-adjusted numbers without the platoon advantage dating back to last season.
While we’re here, Tyler Chatwood will start for the Rox and has a 5.16 home ERA in his career. Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, Jean Segura and Nelson Cruz all have wOBAs of .372 or higher against right-handed pitching dating back to last season.
Boston Red Sox
David Holmberg will make his first start of the season tonight for the White Sox after making eight relief appearances this season. Holmberg has pitched 55.2 innings in his career as a starter, and he has simply not been able to strike batters out as a starter with a strikeout rate of only 10.2 percent. In addition to not being able to miss bats, he hasn’t been able to induce weak contact with a soft contact rate as a starter of only 11.6 percent. Lots of contact and not much soft contact is a recipe for disaster for a starter, but a perfect situation for a stack.
BoSox hitters will also have hitter-friendly conditions in Chicago with a game time temp of 75 degrees and a 15-plus mile per hour wind blowing out to left field. Holmberg is a left-hander, which means Boston’s right-handed hitters will have the wind blowing out to the pull side of the field.
Boston’s lineup card is already out for the day, and they’ve got eight right-handed hitters in the lineup with Jackie Bradley Jr. in the eight-hole being the only exception. Dating back to 2015, Xander Bogaerts, Hanley Ramirez and Chris Young all have wOBAs above .370 vs. LHP, and those three will hit three through five in the order today. Options to extend the stack past those three include young Sam Travis who will get a start at first base and hit sixth, or Dustin Pedroia and Mookie Betts at the top of the order. But the stack should center around Bogaerts through Young.