Once again, today’s recommended DFS Stacks will be for today’s 11 game early slate. The contests are always a little out of whack on Sundays, but with the lopsided number of games, I’ll keep it simple for you with the early slate. I mean, besides, you don’t exactly want to deal with the ridiculous late slate that includes Coors Field and Clayton Kershaw.
The 11 game slate will feature the contests with the biggest guaranteed prize pools. The games will span from A’s/Yankees at 1:05 PM ET to the four 2:10 PM ET games. So you can look at it as a “Super Turbo” with all 11 games starting within 65 minutes of one another.
Of course, the term “Super Turbo” will apply as long as there aren’t any lengthy delays, and through my quick glance, you’ll probably want to keep an eye on the weather in Chicago and Cleveland.
Keep in mind, even though the title of the column is “DFS Stacks,” the stacking approach is best used for GPP tournaments instead of cash games. I’ll narrow it down to my top four favorite stacks for the early slate - listed in order of preference.
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Hopefully the past two nights will keep people away from Arizona. On paper, this is the best matchup they can possibly get against the Brewers because they have destroyed Jimmy Nelson throughout his career. Nelson is giving up a line of .373/.431/.695 with four homers to active Dbacks. This is also through the Pre-Torey Lovullo era, where Arizona wasn’t nearly as aggressive on the bases.
The main issue with the Dbacks is that Lovullo can be a little too liberal when it comes to moving pieces around in his lineup. For instance, yesterday he started Gregor Blanco AND the clearly out of his league Rey Fuentes on a day where Jeff Mathis was undoubtedly going to be in the lineup as the personal catcher for Zack Greinke. It didn’t make much sense for him to sit Brandon Drury who matched up well against Chase Anderson, but he still did it.
Obviously if you’re playing Dbacks, you’re going to need Paul Goldschmidt and Jake Lamb in there purely because of upside. They are both threats on the bases and I would be absolutely shocked if the Dbacks don’t steal at least two bases off of Jimmy Nelson.
There’s also value if Gregor Blanco and/or Chris Herrmann draw into the lineup. Herrmann has been catching Patrick Corbin a lot in recent weeks, so I am quite confident that he’ll be in the lineup one way or another.
Players to consider: Gregor Blanco, David Peralta, Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, Brandon Drury, Chris Herrmann.
BOSTON RED SOX
The team with the highest expected run total today are the Boston Red Sox. I generally do not like targeting Red Sox too much because of their huge price tags, but it’s probably worth it today as long as you can find some value elsewhere. Again, they are uber-expensive.
The matchup against Christian Bergman is a bit of a dream matchup. He gives up a lot of fly balls and has given up a 1.56 HR/9 throughout his MLB career, and even though he’s away from Coors Field, his currently HR/9 is at 2.25. He also tops out at 89 MPH, so if you thought you were watching batting practice in his previous start against the Nationals, you probably weren’t far off. Some guys can get away with throwing 89 MPH fastballs if their breaking pitches are good, but according to PITCHf/x, there is no pitch in his repertoire where he is even above average. Just to give you some perspective, Jered Weaver in 2016 still had an above average curveball that he threw 21.2% of the time. Jered Weaver in 2017 has no above average pitches, and it shows with his ERA that’s pushing EIGHT.
It’s going to be the usual suspects that you’ll want to target for the Red Sox. Mookie Betts consistently gets five plus plate appearances at home, which helps keep his floor high, even though he hasn’t been able to showcase what he can do with his bat since earlier this month. On the other hand, Xander Bogaerts hit his first rocket over the Green Monster earlier this week, and is working on a six game hitting streak. Lastly, Andrew Benintendi has gone through a ton of ups and downs that you can’t really see from his .279 AVG and five home runs, but I am impressed with what he’s doing with his speed. The youngster has four stolen bases over his last six starts.
Players to consider: Mookie Betts, Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, and Jackie Bradley Jr.
LOS ANGELES ANGELS
The peripheral stats do not support Jose Urena as a 3.08 ERA pitcher. His 5.64 xFIP and mediocre 6.7 Swinging Strike Rate leaves a lot to be desired. As an Angels fan, I hope to god that Mike Scioscia has figured his batting order out. Cameron Maybin has been a godsend as a leadoff hitter, but yesterday, Andrelton Simmons was able to show off what he can do as the team’s #2 hitter in front of Mike Trout.
Over the years, we’ve noted how big of a boost Kole Calhoun’s career got from hitting in front of Mike Trout, and both Maybin and Simmons have been able to improve their numbers when hitting in front of the best player in baseball. The best thing about it is that Maybin is so expensive that he’s constantly ignored in GPPs (and cash for that matter), and Simmons is just someone who people just always overlook because they think of him as a player who’s just there for his defense. Would you believe me if I told you that Simmons has nine multi-hit games over his last 12? Well, you better believe it.
Players to consider: Cameron Maybin, Andrelton Simmons, Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Kole Calhoun, and Martin Maldonado
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
A few lucky starts isn’t going to deter me from picking on Jordan Zimmermann. I’ve watched a couple of his starts now from start to finish, and I can easily say that his 5.86 ERA just as easily could have been 8.86. I guess it makes sense when you have a guy allowing a 2.31 HR/9 this season. But the thing about those home runs is that they’ve ALL been either solo or two-run shots.
I don’t like Zimmermann’s chances against a White Sox team who have a long history against him now that he has been in the AL Central for a little over a season. Zimmermann is allowing a line of .370/.400/.648 with three homers to active White Sox batters, including a line of .556/.545/1.222 to Jose Abreu, who is one of the White Sox’s hottest hitters.
As long as the rain cooperates, and I’d imagine it should enough to get the game in, you probably can’t go wrong throwing a few White Sox bats into your lineups.
Players to consider: Melky Cabrera, Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier, Avisail Garcia, and Leury Garcia