Chalk Stack(s)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Andrew Cashner
Although Andrew Cashner has allowed three earned or less in four straight starts, he’s been lucky to get out of dodge with just allowing that. The 14 home runs Cashner has allowed ranks him tied for 15th in the entire league. He doesn’t do a very good job getting people out these days as both sides of the plate are doing serious damage against him. Right-handed hitters are batting .314 and a .386 wOBA while lefties have a .265 AVG and .363 wOBA. The Angels also have the highest implied run total of the slate and third highest of the entire day.
Any Angels stack starts with Mike Trout . Trout belted his 24th homer of the year on Friday night putting him behind J.D. Martínez by just one for the league lead. 19 of those aforementioned homers have come against right-handed pitching so this bodes well for Trouty. He also happens to be having an insane season on the road hitting .361 with 16 bombs and a .501 wOBA. He’s probably the top play of the slate. Andrelton Simmons is heating up again hitting .350 over his last 10 games and the right-handers have the platoon advantage here against Cashner. Justin Upton is always a home run threat as well, despite the fact he’s having a mediocre season.
Ian Kinsler has 11 home runs on the year and eight of them have come in June. He’s hit a little skid of late but he’s showing us the pop is still there. 10 of his 11 long balls have come versus right-handers. Luis Valbuena is seeing a lot of time with the Angels infield littered with injured players. He’s 3-for-8 off of Cashner and has hit a home run off of him as well and although he’s more a secondary option, his price tag is so cheap. Martin Maldonado is the last player I’m considering here. He’s been a run producing machine of late driving in 11 runs over his last 10 games and has homered twice in his last three contests.
Primary Option(s): Mike Trout , Andrelton Simmons , Justin Upton , Martin Maldonado
Secondary Option(s): Ian Kinsler , Luis Valbuena
Contrarian Option(s)
Washington Nationals vs. Vince Velásquez
If you look up and down Vince Velásquez ’s game logs, there aren’t many bad outings, but when they’re bad, they’re awful. Earlier in the month the Brewers tagged him for 10 runs over 3.2 innings and versus Atlanta in April he was blasted for six earned runs in four innings of work. The home run ball has bit Velasquez all year as he’s served up 13 thus far. If we’re breaking it down even further, left-handed hitters have crushed Velasquez. 10 of the 13 homers he’s allowed have come against lefties and that’s part of the reason they have a .509 SLG and .356 wOBA off of him.
The Nats offense is littered with lefties, starting with the best outfielder on their team, Juan Soto . Soto had a four hit, two homer game on Friday in the Nats rout of the Phillies raising his season average to .336 and now has eight homers on the year. He has a .435 wOBA against right-handed pitching, correlating perfectly with Velasquez’s struggles vs. lefty power. Now to the Nats second-best outfielder, Bryce Harper . I’m kidding, guys….kind of. Harper has been heating up of late hitting .290 with an OPS over 1.000 over his last 10 games but can’t seem to hit the ball out of the park as he’s hit one homer and seven doubles over that span. Harper and Soto are a great one-two combination if you can afford them.
Moving down the line, Adam Eaton and Daniel Murphy are price very nicely for their talent level, but those prices are depressed because neither of them have been great since returning from the disabled list. Eaton has been better of late hitting .286 over his last 10 games including a two hit, two walk, two runs scored game on Friday. Eaton is hitting .338 on the year against righties so this is his bread and butter. The way the guys are hitting behind him he’s in a great spot each and every night to score multiple runs per game as long as he reaches base. Before Murphy’s zero hit outing on Friday, he was riding a mini four-game hit streak as we’ve started to see the Daniel Murphy pre-injury once again. Murphy’s 4-for-10 with a homer off Velasquez is a very positive sign as well. Let’s not overlook the fact this series is being played in Philly which is a positive park shift for the Nats.
Some right-handed love is an option too because Anthony Rendón is on fire. He’s slashing .366/.372/.805 with six doubles, four homers and 10 runs batted in over his last 10 games and also has taken Vince Velásquez deep in the past. Rendon isn’t the only right-handed bat on the Nats feelin’ it at the dish right now. Trea Turner is slashing .368/.442/.605 over his last 10 games as well. Something favoring Turner here is that he is a reverse splits guy and is simply better against right-handed pitching than he is versus southpaws. Wilmer Difo could be used a punt because of how cheap he is and how expensive the rest of the Nationals are, but we really need to hope for a stolen base for him to have a chance at value.
Primary Option(s): Juan Soto , Bryce Harper , Adam Eaton , Anthony Rendón
Secondary Option(s): Trea Turner , Daniel Murphy , Wilmer Difo
Player News
Wilmer Flores went 3-for-4 and knocked in his 33rd run of the season in the Giants’ 3-1 defeat of the Cubs on Wednesday.
The early home barrage is long over, but Flores is still fourth in the league in RBI, even as his .737 OPS puts him 200-500 points behind the three guys above him (Pete Alonso, Teoscar Hernández and Aaron Judge). After 37 games this season, he’s almost halfway to his career high of 71 RBI, which he achieved in 151 games in 2022.
Robbie Ray pitched six innings of one-run ball Wednesday to beat the Cubs and move to 5-0.
He fanned five and walked two. Ray’s strikeout, walk and exit velocity numbers this season are all worse than his career marks, yet here he is 5-0 with a 2.84 ERA. He’s definitely a sell-high candidate, but it is entirely possible his peripherals will improve and that he’ll remain a fine starter going forward. Pitching in San Francisco definitely helps with the home run ball, which is one big thing working in his favor. He’s set to face the Diamondbacks next time out.
Ryan Walker rebounded from Tuesday’s poor showing to pitch a scoreless ninth with a two-run lead Wednesday versus the Cubs.
Walker didn’t blow a save last night, but he might as well have in giving up two runs in the ninth (Erik Miller replaced him and got the blown save for allowing one of Walker’s runners to score). Despite that, the Giants went with their typical arrangement today, and Camilo Doval, Tyler Rogers and Walker turned in scoreless seventh, eighth and ninth innings respectively. Walker’s perfect frame came without a strikeout. His K rate currently stands at 25%, well down from last year’s mark of 32%.
Ben Brown fanned nine but took his third loss after allowing three runs in five innings Wednesday against the Giants.
Brown issued two walks. Those led off the first and fourth innings, and the Giants went to score all three of their runs in those innings. Brown wasn’t hit hard, and the nine strikeouts were great. He just put himself into bad spots with those walks, and now he’ll take a 3-3 record and a 4.95 ERA into his next start, a favorable home matchup against the Marlins. He’ll be a streaming option in that one.
Gustavo Campero (ankle) is not in the lineup for Wednesday’s contest against the Blue Jays.
It’ll be veteran slugger Jorge Soler making a rare appearance in right field on Wednesday night after Campero was lifted from Tuesday’s contest with left ankle irritation. It doesn’t sound like a serious concern at the moment. He’s presumably available off the bench, if needed, in an emergency situation.
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Wednesday that he hopes Teoscar Hernández (groin) is back in two weeks.
It’s a complete 180-degree turnaround from Roberts’ tone earlier this week when he spoke ominously regarding a potential return timetable after Hernández hit the injured list with a Grade 1 adductor strain. It certainly sounds like there’s a realistic possibility the 32-year-old fantasy stalwart is ready to return to the Dodgers’ lineup before the end of May, barring any setbacks in his rehabilitation process.