The Chalk
Colorado Rockies
The Rockies are hosting the Padres tonight, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that they have far and away the highest projected run total of the night in Vegas. Their projected run total is over six runs, and no other team has a projected total that is above 5.5 runs. Left-hander Robbie Erlin will start for the Pads, which is a good thing for a Colorado lineup whose best hitters are primarily right-handed.
Colorado’s four best hitters against left-handed pitching are unsurprisingly all right-handed: Nolan Arenado , Trevor Story , Ian Desmond and DJ LeMahieu . Those guys are hitting 2-3-4-6 in the order, so you’ll want some exposure to that quartet in cash games, at least a mini-stack. The Rox were on the road last week, yet each one of those four is hitting at least .278 in the last seven days. Desmond is the only one of the four that did not homer last week.
Oakland Athletics
The A’s are in a three-team tier behind the Rox in terms of projected run total tonight along with the Cubs and Brewers. But of that trio, the A’s are the chalkiest team as they lead the league in wRC+ over the last 30 days. They’ll face right-hander Ariel Jurado who has an ERA north of six and a 4.94 xFIP in four starts this season. Jurado has the worst K-BB% against both left- and right-handed hitters among tonight’s probable starters.
The A’s have four hitters who have been more than 30 percent better than league average against right-handed pitching this season, and those four have hit 1-4 in the order in four of Oakland’s last five games and in all three games where they have faced a right-handed starter like Jurado. They are, in batting order, Nick Martini, Matt Chapman , Jed Lowrie and Khris Davis . This is another obvious spot for cash game exposure, and either the Rox or A’s could be stacked in a GPP if you were contrarian elsewhere in your lineup.
Not the Chalk
New York Mets
There are 20 teams with a projected run total above four runs tonight, and the Mets are not one of them. They’re clearly not the chalk tonight. However, they have some sneaky contrarian appeal. They’ll face right-handed starter Chris Stratton who hasn’t been a regular member of the San Francisco rotation sine early June. In 19 starts this season Stratton has generated soft contact at only an 11 percent clip, which is third worst among tonight’s starters, and has allowed hard contact at a 41.8 percent clip, which is also third worst. In addition to allowing hard contact, he’s not good at limiting contact with a well-below-average 17.6 percent strikeout rate.
The Mets have four guys in the order tonight who have been at least 10 percent above average against right-handed pitching this season, and they’ll hit consecutively in the 2-5 spots in the order tonight. Those four in batting order are Jeff McNeil, Wilmer Flores , Michael Conforto and Austin Jackson . You could also consider including leadoff hitter Amed Rosario who is hitting .317 over the last 15 days with two home runs, four stolen bases, 13 runs and 12 RBI.