For just about the entire time I have written Stack the Deck, I have listed my stacks in order of preference. Usually I feel pretty strongly about the order of the stacks, but that is not the case Monday. There are only nine games on Monday’s slate, and the top seven teams in OPS all have the day off. There are some nice lineups with nice matchups, but no team that I feel like I absolutely have to stack.
With that in mind, I might suggest you pick a pitcher or two you really like and then choose your stacks based on whatever you have left to spend. Go ahead and pay up for my top stack if you can, but you could easily wind up with great value playing one of the other stacks. As always, these stacks are listed in order of preference.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ New York Mets (Robert Gsellman, R)
Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, J.D. Martinez, Jake Lamb, Daniel Descalso, David Peralta
Only the Astros, Nationals and Yankees have a better OPS against right-handed pitchers than the Diamondbacks this season. Robert Gsellman hasn’t made it through the sixth inning in any of his last four starts, allowing exactly seven earned runs in two of those starts. Gsellman has a 5.98 ERA and 1.60 WHIP on the season.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Oakland Athletics (Chris Smith, R)
Jonathan Schoop, Tim Beckham, Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Trey Mancini, Mark Trumbo
Of the pitchers scheduled Monday, only Andrew Albers has allowed a higher wOBA to right-handed batters than Chris Smith. When you are worse against righties than Wade Miley, you know you are doing something wrong. Orioles right-handed batters have a .768 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season. The top six Baltimore hitters each have at least 17 home runs this season, and Chris Smith has allowed 2.06 HR/9. Smith has allowed at least three earned runs in five consecutive starts, and Oakland’s 4.63 bullpen ERA is the third-highest in MLB.
Oakland Athletics @ Baltimore Orioles (Wade Miley, L)
Rajai Davis, Chad Pinder, Jed Lowrie, Marcus Semien, Matt Chapman, Khris Davis, Ryon Healy
This game has the highest total in Vegas, and I could definitely be talked into a game stack. As I mentioned above, Wade Miley is pretty terrible against right-handed batters, allowing a .375 wOBA. Oakland’s lineup could feature eight right-handed bats, and their righties have a .342 wOBA against left-handed pitchers this season. Miley has been pretty decent following three straight games of five or more earned runs in July, but another blowup is likely on the horizon. Miley has a 5.21 ERA and 1.69 WHIP on the season.
Minnesota Twins @ Chicago White Sox (Carlos Rodon, L)
Jason Castro, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco, Chris Gimenez, Brian Dozier, Byron Buxton,Eduardo Escobar, Joe Mauer, Kennys Vargas, Mitch Garver
This is a value play, and one that could potentially have very low ownership. Carlos Rodon has actually been better against righties than lefties this season, which is good because Minnesota is lacking in right-handed pop with Miguel Sano out.
There are a lot of players listed in this potential stack because so much hinges on the lineup. Mitch Garver played first base and batted fifth Sunday, and while he would be playable in that spot Monday, I might like Kennys Vargas a bit more if he starts. Similarly, Byron Buxton is a great play if he bats third again but a fringe play if he moves back to seventh.
Carlos Rodon pitched around four walks in 7.1 innings against the Dodgers his last time out, and the Twins have the fourth-best walk rate in baseball this season at 9.6 percent. If Rodon is wild again, which is more likely than not, Minnesota could take advantage. Brian Dozier is 7-for-19 with three home runs against Carlos Rodon, which certainly helps.