The Chalk
Washington Nationals
The Nats lead the slate in projected run total per Vegas as of this writing. They’re -185 favorites at home against Wei-Yin Chen and the Marlins. Chen has really struggled of late with a 5.27 xFIP in his last four starts, and he has really struggled against right-handed hitters this year with a 3.4 K-BB% vs. RHP.
The Nats have four right-handed hitters who have been above average against left-handed pitching this season. Ryan Zimmerman has been by far their best hitter against lefties, and Anthony Rendón has been well above average against them. Mark Reynolds and Trea Turner are their other righties with above average numbers against lefties. If you need a left-handed hitter to string together a stack, both Juan Soto and Bryce Harper are good enough without the platoon advantage to use in that capacity.
Minnesota Twins
The Twins have the second highest projected run total of the main slate against Detroit with left-hander Ryan Carpenter on the mound. Carpenter has made four appearances this season (three starts), and he has managed only 12.2 innings with a 6.39 ERA and 7.35 FIP. Woof.
Minny’s best hitter against left-handed pitching has been Tyler Austin , who has a 152 wRC+ in 69 PA vs. RHP. Their best hitters overall in the last 15 days have been Logan Forsythe , Jorge Polanco and Miguel Sano , all of whom will have the platoon advantage against Carpenter. Minnesota has faced left-handed starters in each of their last two games, and those four guys hit in the top five of the order in both games.
Not the Chalk
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals only have the eighth highest projected total of the main slate, which means they’re certainly not the chalk tonight. However, they have an excellent matchup against left-hander Wade Miley . Miley has a 2.71 ERA in his last five starts, but he’s ripe for regression with a 4.71 xFIP over that stretch. He also struggles with contact management as he has the second highest hard contact rate allowed among tonight’s starters. On top of that, he allows a lot of contact with a strikeout rate of only 13.3 percent in eight starts this season. And finally, he’s got platoon split issues with a K-BB% against right-handed hitters of only four percent.
The Cards can string together right-handed hitters against lefties as the 2-7 spots in their order have all been right-handed the last two times they have faced a left-handed starter. Their two best hitters against lefties this season, Jedd Gyorko and Harrison Bader , hit 6-7 in the order in those last two games against lefties. They have three other right-handers who have been safely above average against lefties this season, Yadier Molina , Jose Martinez and Marcell Ozuna , who hit 2-3-4 in the order in those games. Paul DeJong in the five hole is the only guy in their stretch of righties who has been below average with the platoon advantage this season. Long story short, a 2-3-4-6-7 stack of Cards is a nice contrarian option tonight assuming St. Louis’ lineup card looks the same.