The Chalk
Washington Nationals
The Nats lead the slate in projected run total per Vegas as of this writing. They’re -185 favorites at home against Wei-Yin Chen and the Marlins. Chen has really struggled of late with a 5.27 xFIP in his last four starts, and he has really struggled against right-handed hitters this year with a 3.4 K-BB% vs. RHP.
The Nats have four right-handed hitters who have been above average against left-handed pitching this season. Ryan Zimmerman has been by far their best hitter against lefties, and Anthony Rendón has been well above average against them. Mark Reynolds and Trea Turner are their other righties with above average numbers against lefties. If you need a left-handed hitter to string together a stack, both Juan Soto and Bryce Harper are good enough without the platoon advantage to use in that capacity.
Minnesota Twins
The Twins have the second highest projected run total of the main slate against Detroit with left-hander Ryan Carpenter on the mound. Carpenter has made four appearances this season (three starts), and he has managed only 12.2 innings with a 6.39 ERA and 7.35 FIP. Woof.
Minny’s best hitter against left-handed pitching has been Tyler Austin , who has a 152 wRC+ in 69 PA vs. RHP. Their best hitters overall in the last 15 days have been Logan Forsythe , Jorge Polanco and Miguel Sano , all of whom will have the platoon advantage against Carpenter. Minnesota has faced left-handed starters in each of their last two games, and those four guys hit in the top five of the order in both games.
Not the Chalk
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals only have the eighth highest projected total of the main slate, which means they’re certainly not the chalk tonight. However, they have an excellent matchup against left-hander Wade Miley . Miley has a 2.71 ERA in his last five starts, but he’s ripe for regression with a 4.71 xFIP over that stretch. He also struggles with contact management as he has the second highest hard contact rate allowed among tonight’s starters. On top of that, he allows a lot of contact with a strikeout rate of only 13.3 percent in eight starts this season. And finally, he’s got platoon split issues with a K-BB% against right-handed hitters of only four percent.
The Cards can string together right-handed hitters against lefties as the 2-7 spots in their order have all been right-handed the last two times they have faced a left-handed starter. Their two best hitters against lefties this season, Jedd Gyorko and Harrison Bader , hit 6-7 in the order in those last two games against lefties. They have three other right-handers who have been safely above average against lefties this season, Yadier Molina , Jose Martinez and Marcell Ozuna , who hit 2-3-4 in the order in those games. Paul DeJong in the five hole is the only guy in their stretch of righties who has been below average with the platoon advantage this season. Long story short, a 2-3-4-6-7 stack of Cards is a nice contrarian option tonight assuming St. Louis’ lineup card looks the same.
Player News
Nick Kurtz is not in the lineup for Wednesday’s game against the Mariners.
Kurtz gets the matinee off even with right-hander Bryan Woo on the mound for Seattle. The 22-year-old rookie will take a seat with Seth Brown in the lineup in Kurtz’s absence.
Gabriel Moreno (side) is not in the starting lineup for Wednesday’s game against the mets.
Moreno was scratched Tuesday due to soreness in his side, and the Diamondbacks will have him begin Wednesday’s contest on the bench again. He was available off the bench Tuesday, so there’s a chance he’ll be available for this one, as well. In the meantime, Jose Herrera gets the start behind the plate.
Aaron Civale (hamstring) will make a rehab start Thursday for Triple-A Nashville.
Civale suffered a setback from his strained hamstring in the middle of April, but the 29-year-old has progressed enough to get back on the mound. The right-hander will assuredly need multiple outings before coming back to the majors, but he should be ready for the rotation by the end of May if he doesn’t have another setback.
William Contreras is playing with a fractured middle finger on his catching hand.
Contreras had X-rays last night, which revealed the fracture. It is reportedly an old fracture that “has bothered him for some time.” Contreras has played through it and will continue to do so. However, his catching hand is also the lead hand for his swing, so the fracture may be impacting some of his quality of contact. His barrel rate is just 3.1 percent on the season, and his average exit velocity is down almost three mph while posting a career-low hard hit rate. His bat speed has also fallen, with him ranking in the 65th percentile with an average bat speed of 72.8 mph after posting a 74.7 mph mark last year.
Rangers signed RHP Cory Abbott to a minor league contract.
Abbott had a 2.40 ERA in 15 innings for los Tecos de los Dos Laredos in the Mexican Independent League, striking out 15 batters and walking eight in an extremely hitter-friendly environment. He’s the third player signed out of the Mexican Independent League this week, with the Rangers also signing Robert Dugger and the Dodgers signing Nick Senzel. Abbott figures to join the starting rotation for Triple-A Round Rock.
Yordan Alvarez (hand) was diagnosed with a muscle strain on the top of his right hand.
The injury was previously reported as “inflammation,” but now we know that the inflammation is the result of a strain. Astros manager Joe Espada said the diagnosis was “good news,” and the team still hopes Alvarez will have a minimum stint on the IL, but he’ll obviously need to wait for the strained muscle or tendon to heal, which might take more than a week depending on the severity of the strain.