DFS MLB Pitching Coach: September 3

We are in the final stretch here as most head-to-head leagues will go into playoff mode after next week, and the time is at hand to pick up them points where you can in roto-leagues. My advice? Attack the categories you are closest to. If you need 37 SB to pick up a point and only 9 RBI, you attack the RBI category. Why? Because in all likelihood the chances of making up over 30 SB is doubtful to say the least. Hang in there. It’s almost over, which makes me very, very sad.

It looks like we found a nice animal shelter for Kitty Colvin. The only problem is there is a two month waiting list and you need to make a sizeable donation. But, it gives Jennifer and I the peace of mind that the little bugger will not be put to sleep. He is, however, getting more territorial by the day; I have never seen a house pet like it. He took over my oldest stepdaughters (Hailee) closet and when she tries to retrieve something, he bats at her. The other day the poor girl opened the door, reached in for her sweatshirt and got a nasty scratch on her hand. Bad Kitty! In my best Eric Cartman voice.

So with a cheap Cumberland Farms Iced Coffee and Quick Pitch playing in the background, I bring you today’s Pitching Coach Article.

Possible weather concerns!

Checking city-by-city, it seems most of the country is going to be below-average today in temperatures, with most staying in the low-70’s and Texas only hitting the mid-to-high-80’s. I see no weather issues where we do not have a domed stadium, and it appears to be a beautiful day for baseball.

Day Slate

This slate is rather weird. Some sites have Chris Archer starting for TB and others have Blake Snell. The last I heard it was Snell today, but, if Archer does indeed go, he is the top option at home facing the Blue Jays who are 20^th in road wOBA in MLB. For articles sake, we will assume it is Snell.

The other odd thing about this slate is it is not every day, on a four-game slate, that I actually like seven out of the eight pitchers, the one I do not like being Snell. If you take a look at this one it is highly unpredictable, we may have seven viable pitching options going but they all are in bad matchups. Great pitchers, facing great teams, can lead to great amounts of money lost if you do not play your cards right. For this reason, I am declaring this slate a GPP only slate.

Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants

Well most people will choose Jake Arrieta today, I am completely fading him. The Giants are a huge pain in the rear for the Dodgers this time of year and always seem to pick it up at the right time, this time. For this reason, I do not attack the Giants much come September. Maybe this year will be different, I hope.

Even though Bumgarner has been regressing as of late, he is still capable of putting together big starts. He gets a great park shift at Wrigley Field on a day with cool temperatures and the wind direction saying it should be blowing in around 6-to-9 mph. Although the Cubs are dangerous, over the last seven days they are 20^th in MLB in wOBA at .303 while striking out 21.5 percent of the time with a low wRC+ of 85. Bumgarner has a 9.93 K/9 and the highest swinging strike rate on the early slate at 12.3 percent, and gets my call facing a team he is 7-2 lifetime against with a 2.19 ERA. The current Cubs roster is also batting a measly .213 (32-for-150) with two HR (Jason Heyward and David Ross), 10 RBI, and 40 strikeouts versus Madison.

Marco Estrada, Toronto Blue Jays

Estrada gets a great park shift facing the on the upswing Rays at Tropicana Field. Strikeouts will be the key today I believe and Estrada is great pitcher to target for that purpose. Not only does he have a decent 8.17 K/9, he is also facing a Rays team that strikes out 22.6 percent of the time versus RHP. Although he has had a few bad outings, in his last five, he has had three games where he has only allowed two earned runs or less, including a start versus the same Rays team at home on Aug. 9^th where he had six strikeouts over five innings allowing only two earned runs. He does have a 3.37 ERA versus a 4.22 xFIP but I believe park shift will negate this and for the price on a two-pitcher site, he is the guy I pair with Bumgarner today. The current Rays roster is batting .247 (21-for-85) with three HR (Logan Forsythe, Logan Morrison, and Bobby Wilson), 11 RBI, and 23 strikeouts versus Estrada.

Derek Holland, Texas Rangers

Derek Holland although terrible in my opinion is facing the Houston Astros who are just as likely to score zero runs as 20. Holland has looked good in his first two starts back versus the Reds and Indians striking out 10 batters, over 12 innings, while only allowing two earned runs. Can the magic continue today? With the Astros being number one in road wOBA in MLB at .342, probably not. But, over the last seven days the Astros are only batting .236 striking out a whopping 25.3 percent of the time. For the low price, even with horrible BVP, I will take stab that he has figured something out. The current Astros roster are batting .326 (31-for-95) with five HR (Jose Altuve, Jason Castro, Carlos Correa (2), and Colby Rasmus), 12 RBI, and 11 strikeouts versus Holland. I also must admit; I will have an Astros RHB (.335 wOBA) stack against Holland to make me feel better if I am wrong.

On the Flipside, Joe Musgrove will be the GPP play most use today. And, for good reason with the strikeout upside. In my experience in DFS usually the favorite flops so I am taking the chance and avoiding him today.

Night Slate

Plenty of choices and a Coors Field game with Braden Shipley pitching to think about. If you want some exposure to them Colorado bats, then you are going to have to take a chance or two. I feel today is a day to attack Coors Field and will be looking for ways to save on pitching to do so.

Rich Hill, Los Angeles Dodgers (Top FanDuel play)

To be honest, I was getting ready to name one of my fantasy football teams “Rich Hill's Blister” when I saw the news he was actually going to start. He gets a great park shift at home in Dodgers Stadium facing the Padres who strikeout 24.1 percent of the time versus LHP. San Diego is also 28^th in road wOBA at .293 and are batting .209 striking out 26.3 percent of the time over the last seven days. Hill is a GB pitcher with a swinging strike rate of 11.9 percent, both of which are conducive to fantasy production versus the Padres. In his only start since joining my beloved Dodgers, facing the Giants at home, he had three strikeouts over six innings while allowing zero earned runs. On FanDuel for the price tonight, I am all in on Hill, on the other sites, not as much for the price. The BVP is miniscule but with the absence of Matt Kemp the Padres appear to have lost a lot of pop versus LHP.

Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins

On DK and Aces for the price, with the strikeout upside, you have to take Jose over Hill tonight for $300 more. Although the park shift is terrible, and the Indians are third in home wOBA at a killer .355, when you factor in the 20 percent strikeout rate versus RHP, compared to the 12.74/K9 and incredible 15.7-percent swinging strike rate, you have a possible huge fantasy point day whether he gives up a few runs or not. He has a slightly higher ERA than xFIP which you do not see that much and over his last two starts versus the Mets and Royals he has 15 strikeouts over 13 innings with a 0.00 ERA. In the small BVP we have, the current Indians roster are batting .192 (5-for-26) with one HR (Brandon Guyer), three RBI, and a whopping 12 strikeouts. If this is any indication of the day to come, we are in a for a doozy. Vegas does have him a slight underdog which could hurt the win bonus on FD, but makes little impact on the others in my opinion.

Both of the next two plays are excellent options on a two-pitcher site and great GPP and borderline cash game plays on FanDuel. They both rank so close it was hard to decide who to rank first, but history and a huge price difference on DK ended up being the determining factor. You could also pair them together to try and free up some money for Coors Field bats on DK and Aces.

Yordano Ventura, Kansas City Royals

How often do you like to attack the Tigers? I can tell you from experience that I avoid it for the most part like using John Danks in Coors Field. Detroit is striking out 19.7 percent of the time versus RHP with a .328 wOBA, which in the grand scheme of things is not all that scary. Ventura has really figured things out as of late, over his last six starts he has a 2.55 ERA including a start versus the very same Tigers where he struck out seven batters over 6 2/3 innings allowing only one earned run on Aug. 17^th. Talk about history? Ventura is 6-0 with a 2.98 ERA lifetime versus Detroit. He is one of my favorite plays tonight and Vegas also likes him having made him a slight -103 favorite.

Tanner Roark, Washington Nationals

Although a little expensive on DK you have to pay some respect to Roark today. He gets a great park shift at Citi Field facing a Mets team that are striking out 21.5 percent of the time with a .315 wOBA (20^th in MLB) versus RHP on the season. Roark has a 7.13 K/9 which offers some upside and despite having some up and down games boasts a 2.56 ERA over his last six starts. This season Roark has pitched 9 1/3 innings versus the Mets with seven strikeouts allowing one earned run. On FanDuel he has the highest probability to get the win today in my opinion and Vegas agrees as they have made him a -126 favorite, not huge, but enough.

Jimmy Nelson, Milwaukee Brewers (HUGE Boom or Bust GPP)

Much like Brock Stewart last week, I believe Jimmy Nelson could be the player today we all sit around wondering who the hell would play him in DFS. Why do I like Nelson today? It is simple, even though insane. First off, Nelson has pitched fairly well at PNC park over the last two seasons, in 2015 he had a 3.38 ERA over 16 innings with 12 strikeouts and this season up till now over six PNC innings has a 3.00 ERA. The park shift is huge here and Nelson has had huge strikeout games in the past. He has had six strikeouts or more in eight of his last 27 starts with most averaging around six innings. The Pirates are striking out 20.3 percent of the time versus RHP with a .315 wOBA (tied for 20^th with the Mets) while batting .240 over the last seven days. For $4700 on DK, and peanuts elsewhere, I have to give it a shot in low dollar GPPs to load up on them Coors Field bats today. You pair him with Ventura on DK and you can roster pretty much, who you want.

Good luck today. Check your catchers if they played last night.

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