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Today is my three-year wedding anniversary. We have our ups and downs, but we always end up making up by the end of the day. We have four kids, another on the way, in weeks actually. Life is hard but, through it all, we make it work. Love is an interesting thing. It can drag you right down with the wrong person, and really give you a lift with the right one. Together, Jennifer Colvin and I make a great team. Thank you for putting up with me for three years. You are the Gil to my Hodges.
So with a fresh Iced Coffee, the familiar feel of my office, and Quick Pitch playing in the background, I bring you today’s Pitching Coach Article.
Possible weather concerns:
We have a few games to be concerned with tonight.
The Diamondbacks-Nationals game has some pre-game weather issues clearing up around 7 p.m. with a pocket of dry weather until around 1 a.m. This game may start in a delay, but should be fine when it gets going.
The Rays-White Sox game is a completely different animal. Not only are we going to have high winds, but sometime after 8 p.m. it is going to start raining as well. I had little interest in the SP regardless, and at this time batters should be a go.
Want MLB weather dates? Tune into the Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio from4-to-6 p.m. Monday-Friday, hosted by Jeff Mans and Ted Schuster. Also follow our weather updates on Twitter @MLBDailyWeather.
If you read my previous articles you will see I never “dial it in”. And certainly, I assure you the lack of SP selections, has nothing to do with that. It is simple, I have been up-and-down, back-and-forth, and bent-over-backwards trying to find SP I would be willing to use today. Almost all of them are complete crap, have a bad matchup, or, a horrible history versus the team they are facing. Five. That is what I have for you. Maybe you like someone I do not, that is fine. But, five is all I am giving you. I will not force feed you plays for article length. We have no Coors Field game, plenty of young cheap bats, and decent pricing, all of which should leave you no trouble using the plays I am using tonight.
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Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs (Cash)
Arrieta today is the only real cash game play on the slate. He gets a great park shift at PNC and is a -164 favorite. In his last two starts versus the Cardinals, and Brewers at home, he has a 2.08 ERA with 15 strikeouts over 13 innings. The Pirates are striking out 23.7 percent of the time over the last seven days with a low .301 wOBA, and wRC+ of 88. Jake from State Farm is 3-1 this season versus the Bucs with a 3.78 ERA, and 36 strikeouts over 33 1/3 innings. The current Pirates roster is batting .214 (48-for-224) with five HR (Josh Bell, David Freese, Matt Joyce, Gregory Polanco, and Sean Rodriguez), 17 RBI, and 58 strikeouts versus Arrieta.
Cole Hamels, Texas Rangers (Borderline cash, SP2, GPP)
As much as he makes me nervous, Hamels is a huge -211 favorite tonight at home in Texas. Although the Brewers can hit LHP, what you are after here is strikeouts. Hamels has a 9.02 K/9 facing a Brewers team striking out 25.8 percent of the time over the last seven days, while batting .230, with a wRC+ of 73. Even in a bad ballpark it can be prudent to take GB pitchers like Hamels, who can dominate on any given day. Even if he lets up a few runs, chances are you end up scoring big in strikeouts. We have little BVP with the current Brewers roster batting .308 (16-for-52) with three HR (Ryan Braun), five RBI, and 13 strikeouts versus Hamels. As you can see, Ryan Braun will be a popular DFS play tonight.
Seth Lugo, New York Mets (Borderline cash, SP2, GPP, DK super value)
When you are using a pitcher like Lugo who has a low 6.60 K/9, why not use him versus a team like the Marlins who only strikeout 19.1 percent of the time versus RHP? He gets a great park shift in Miami facing a Marlins team that is 28th in home wOBA (.300) while batting .220 over the last seven days. He may not nail you a ton of K’s, but in his last start versus Miami, he allowed two earned runs over six innings, while striking out four batters, securing the win. For the low price across the industry, and super low price on DK, I am all in here. The current Marlins roster is batting .269 (7-for-26) with one HR (Christian Yelich), four RBI, and five strikeouts versus Lugo.
Jeff Samardzija, San Francisco Giants (SP2, GPP)
I do not believe I have used Samardzija this season in DFS. I simply, well, dislike him. Today, on this slate, he is a superstar. Over his last two starts versus the Padres and Cardinals he has a 0.66 ERA with 13 strikeouts over 13 2/3 innings. The Rockies are striking out 26.2 percent of the time over the last seven days with a pathetic wRC+ of 51. He gets a great park shift at home facing a notoriously bad road team (The Rockies are 27th in road wOBA at .302.) that so far this season he has dominated with a 2.38 ERA with 23 strikeouts over 22 2/3 innings against. The current Rockies lineup is batting .254 (35-for-138) with two HR (Carlos Gonzalez and Gerardo Parra), 10 RBI, and 38 strikeouts versus the Shark.
Jose De Leon, Los Angeles Dodgers (Boom or Bust GPP, Aces value)
I like this play in a GPP on Fantasy Aces today more than anywhere else, and would probably avoid him if possible on DK and FD at his price. But, De Leon does have the pedigree to just maybe come out and shine. He has an 8.59 K/9 facing a Padres team striking out 26.1 percent of the time versus RHP. Over the last seven days the Padres are also only batting .212 with a low .288 wOBA. Now, lots of danger here, De Leon has a .520 wOBA versus RHB so far in his young career facing a Padres team with some decent RHB. In his last start versus the Padres he had nine strikeouts over six innings, while allowing three earned runs. If he repeats, all is good. The BVP is less than 25 AB, but favorable.
| vs L | vs R | |||||||||||||||||||
| Player | Tm | Hand | Opp | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BAA | SwStr% | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA | wOBA | $FD | $DK | $Aces |
| Jake Arrieta | CHI | R | PIT | 192.1 | 8.70 | 3.42 | 0.70 | .186 | 11.5% | 2.85 | 3.63 | 1.05 | 54.4% | 26.9% | 2.02 | 0.267 | 0.244 | $11000 | $11500 | $7800 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | L | MIL | 193.2 | 9.02 | 3.53 | 1.07 | .241 | 13.2% | 3.30 | 3.79 | 1.31 | 51.6% | 28.1% | 1.84 | 0.273 | 0.319 | $9900 | $10700 | $7800 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SF | R | COL | 197.1 | 7.12 | 2.23 | 1.09 | .247 | 9.9% | 3.83 | 3.91 | 1.20 | 50.0% | 30.2% | 1.66 | 0.336 | 0.278 | $9400 | $8900 | $7200 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | R | CLE | 155.2 | 7.46 | 2.20 | 0.93 | .226 | 11.6% | 2.95 | 3.82 | 1.09 | 51.6% | 29.4% | 1.76 | 0.268 | 0.300 | $8700 | $8600 | $7100 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WSH | L | ARI | 173.2 | 8.66 | 2.85 | 0.98 | .257 | 10.4% | 4.51 | 3.83 | 1.31 | 50.5% | 27.2% | 1.86 | 0.282 | 0.326 | $8200 | $8200 | $6650 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | R | TOR | 166.1 | 7.47 | 3.35 | 1.03 | .241 | 10.0% | 3.84 | 4.44 | 1.28 | 42.0% | 35.2% | 1.19 | 0.317 | 0.322 | $7800 | $8100 | $6200 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | R | STL | 117.1 | 7.82 | 1.99 | 1.23 | .259 | 10.1% | 3.38 | 3.85 | 1.21 | 45.2% | 32.3% | 1.40 | 0.364 | 0.256 | $7800 | $9600 | $6450 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | R | KC | 176.1 | 7.45 | 2.55 | 0.92 | .246 | 11.0% | 3.37 | 4.09 | 1.23 | 44.4% | 32.9% | 1.35 | 0.292 | 0.307 | $7800 | $9300 | $6800 |
| Blake Snell | TB | L | CWS | 86.1 | 9.80 | 5.21 | 0.52 | .272 | 11.7% | 3.65 | 4.41 | 1.65 | 40.0% | 33.8% | 1.19 | 0.304 | 0.336 | $7800 | $7000 | $6850 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | L | BAL | 156.2 | 9.19 | 4.77 | 1.49 | .264 | 12.1% | 5.46 | 4.24 | 2.81 | 54.0% | 27.8% | 1.94 | 0.329 | 0.348 | $7800 | $8400 | $6900 |
| James Paxton | SEA | L | HOU | 116.0 | 8.46 | 1.55 | 0.62 | .279 | 12.7% | 3.72 | 3.40 | 1.30 | 50.6% | 28.6% | 1.77 | 0.322 | 0.304 | $7600 | $10400 | $6200 |
| Michael Foltynewicz | ATL | R | PHI | 118.1 | 8.06 | 2.28 | 1.37 | .268 | 10.6% | 4.41 | 4.04 | 1.31 | 43.8% | 35.1% | 1.25 | 0.343 | 0.326 | $7500 | $8300 | $5800 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | R | MIA | 58.2 | 6.60 | 2.45 | 0.92 | .217 | 10.4% | 2.61 | 4.40 | 1.06 | 46.2% | 35.7% | 1.30 | 0.295 | 0.273 | $7500 | $5400 | $6500 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | R | LAA | 116.0 | 7.22 | 3.26 | 1.40 | .286 | 8.9% | 5.74 | 4.13 | 1.50 | 55.5% | 24.1% | 2.30 | 0.326 | 0.381 | $7500 | $6400 | $6550 |
| Jose De Leon | LA | R | SD | 14.2 | 8.60 | 1.84 | 2.45 | .273 | 11.2% | 5.52 | 3.99 | 1.30 | 50.0% | 34.1% | 1.47 | 0.233 | 0.520 | $7400 | $8500 | $5700 |
| Jameson Taillon | PIT | R | CHI | 98.0 | 7.44 | 1.19 | 1.10 | .262 | 9.3% | 3.49 | 3.37 | 1.14 | 55.3% | 25.1% | 2.20 | 0.321 | 0.300 | $7200 | $7800 | $6600 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | R | SF | 150.0 | 6.48 | 3.96 | 0.90 | .254 | 8.6% | 4.08 | 4.45 | 1.41 | 58.1% | 24.3% | 2.39 | 0.338 | 0.312 | $7100 | $7700 | $6350 |
| Mike Leake | STL | R | CIN | 171.2 | 6.24 | 1.52 | 1.05 | .290 | 7.7% | 4.72 | 3.92 | 1.33 | 55.2% | 24.1% | 2.29 | 0.333 | 0.328 | $6600 | $5600 | $6000 |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | R | WSH | 96.0 | 6.09 | 3.56 | 1.31 | .311 | 8.5% | 6.47 | 5.05 | 1.70 | 44.4% | 30.7% | 1.44 | 0.415 | 0.329 | $6500 | $4700 | $5900 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | R | TEX | 146.2 | 7.25 | 3.13 | 1.66 | .263 | 9.4% | 4.36 | 4.56 | 1.35 | 38.8% | 37.2% | 1.04 | 0.293 | 0.392 | $6500 | $6000 | $6250 |
| Luis Perdomo | SD | R | LA | 141.2 | 6.54 | 2.41 | 1.27 | .309 | 9.2% | 5.59 | 4.13 | 1.59 | 60.5% | 19.2% | 3.15 | 0.355 | 0.363 | $6500 | $6700 | $6200 |
| Andrew Cashner | MIA | R | NYM | 127.3 | 7.61 | 3.87 | 1.20 | .264 | 7.9% | 4.77 | 4.50 | 3.09 | 50.1% | 29.5% | 1.70 | 0.380 | 0.336 | $6400 | $4000 | $6300 |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | R | NYY | 133.1 | 5.88 | 3.51 | 1.42 | .257 | 10.0% | 5.00 | 4.99 | 1.37 | 42.3% | 42.1% | 1.01 | 0.357 | 0.308 | $6300 | $5700 | $6100 |
| Doug Fister | HOU | R | SEA | 179.0 | 5.68 | 3.02 | 1.16 | .272 | 6.2% | 4.43 | 4.76 | 1.40 | 46.9% | 32.2% | 1.45 | 0.397 | 0.271 | $6300 | $5000 | $6000 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CWS | R | TB | 126.2 | 6.40 | 2.42 | 0.78 | .263 | 9.0% | 3.98 | 4.47 | 1.30 | 43.7% | 34.5% | 1.27 | 0.311 | 0.308 | $6100 | $7300 | $5950 |
| Alex Meyer | LAA | R | OAK | 20.4 | 12.28 | 6.75 | 1.27 | .421 | 9.3% | 12.27 | 4.77 | 4.63 | 41.4% | 41.4% | 1.00 | 0.392 | 0.328 | $6000 | $4400 | $6300 |
| Jason Vargas | KC | L | MIN | 7.0 | 6.43 | 2.57 | 1.29 | .154 | 9.8% | 3.86 | 4.63 | 0.86 | 33.3% | 52.4% | 0.64 | 0.518 | 0.184 | $5800 | $4600 | $6000 |
| Adam Morgan | PHI | L | ATL | 108.1 | 7.56 | 1.99 | 1.83 | .295 | 11.7% | 5.57 | 4.30 | 1.46 | 39.9% | 35.0% | 1.14 | 0.313 | 0.383 | $5800 | $5900 | $6600 |
| Bryan Mitchell | NYY | R | BOS | 18.0 | 4.50 | 3.50 | 0.50 | .329 | 8.2% | 4.50 | 5.01 | 1.72 | 52.4% | 31.7% | 1.65 | 0.372 | 0.373 | $5300 | $4000 | $5600 |
| Zach McAllister | CLE | R | DET | 50.1 | 9.48 | 3.58 | 1.07 | .259 | 10.9% | 3.58 | 4.34 | 1.47 | 37.0% | 37.7% | 0.98 | 0.307 | 0.348 | $4000 | $4000 | $5550 |
I just want to say R.I.P. Jose Fernandez, you passed on what was a very emotional day for me in the baseball world. I learned of your passing, watched Vin Scully call his last Dodger game from Los Angeles, and my beloved Dodgers clinched as well, all on my birthday. It is a shame we will never know how great you could have been.
This Saturday, the last Pitching Coach.
Follow me on Twitter @RealJerryColvin or email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.com
I also have an EBay store with some fine sports cards in it, this is the URL: http://stores.ebay.com/jerrysgemmints/