DFS MLB Pitching Coach: September 16

It feels nice to be here on a Friday only having to deal with one slate. We got plenty of options to choose from tonight, and I for one, will be partaking in mostly GPPs at this point. We have a Coors Field game tonight, and I certainly want some exposure to the Colorado side of things, so, I will be looking for savings, to load up on some beef.

So with a fresh Iced Coffee, the familiar feel of my office, and Quick Pitch playing in the background, I bring you today’s Pitching Coach Article.

Possible Weather Concerns

We have a few games of mild concern tonight.

Detroit-Cleveland has storms set to move in around 10 p.m. tonight and will stay consistent throughout the evening. The concern for this one is low.

Pittsburgh-Cincinnati has afternoon showers ending around 6 p.m. and slated to start again around 10 p.m. This should be enough of a window to not impact the game.

Chicago (WS)-Kansas City has sporadic showers starting around 2 p.m. with small periods of what should be on-and-off weather. The good news, this should be over by around 9 p.m. If the game starts in a delay, the SP are a go. If it looks like they are going to try and force it in between windows, a complete fade for SP, either way, the bats should be fine.

Want MLB weather dates? Tune into the Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio from4-to-6 p.m. Monday-Friday, hosted by Jeff Mans and Ted Schuster. Also follow our weather updates on Twitter @MLBDailyWeather.

Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals (Cash, GPP)

I have to be honest, the Braves make me nervous as of late. As a matter of fact, over the last seven days the Braves are 30^th in MLB in strikeouts, doing so a measly 15 percent of the time, while batting a whopping .308 (second in MLB). They are however 26^th in home wOBA at .311, and face a pitcher with a 16.7-percent swinging strike rate, which is top on the slate, and a 11.09 K/9. In Scherzer’s last start versus the Braves he went seven innings, allowing two earned runs, while striking out five batters and getting the win. In cash games tonight, he is the top option. The current Braves roster is batting .228 (53-for-232) with four HR (Tyler Flowers, Freddie Freeman, Adonis Garcia, and A.J. Pierzynski), 19 RBI, and 61 strikeouts versus the Brian Ambos doppelganger.

Chris Sale, Kansas City Royals (Cash, GPP)

Chris Sale should be highly owned tonight and for good reason. He gets a better park shift pitching at Kauffman Stadium and is a slight -123 favorite. The Royals are only batting .226 over the last seven days with a low wRC+ of 60, while striking out an abnormal 22.4 percent of the time. Sale has 20 strikeouts over his last 16 innings versus the same Royals (whom he struck out 12 batters over eight innings in his last start on Sept 11^th), and Tigers on the road. His price is as high as the upside, and he comes in just behind the Scherz tonight on my chart. The current Royals roster is batting .300 (117-for-390) with 11 HR (Lorenzo Cain-out (3), Eric Hosmer (3), Kendrys Morales (2), Alcides Escobar, Paulo Orlando, and Salvador Perez), with 30 RBI, and 97 strikeouts versus Sale. Now you see why he came in behind the Scherz?

Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners (SP2, GPP, DK Value)

Although King Felix seems to be on the decline as far as his swing and miss stuff goes, he still is a great option for a SP2 on a two-pitcher site tonight. Although the Houston Astros are first in MLB in road wOBA at .342, they are also batting .215 while striking out 24.1 percent of the time, with a low wRC+ of 76 over the last seven days. Felix has had his struggles but is a slight -127 favorite, and gets a great park shift at home. The Astros are all banged up, and on DK tonight for $8,000, I find him rather hard to pass up, and fully expect “Kings Court” to be in full swing tonight. The current Astros roster is batting .316 (25-for-79) with two HR (Jason Castro and Luis Valbuena), 11 RBI, and 22 strikeouts versus Felix. If the prior strikeout rate is any indication of the night to come, despite allowing a few runs, he will pay dividends.

Matt Moore, San Francisco Giants (GPP and SP2)

Moore is a great play tonight versus the Cardinals, regardless of their propensity to absolutely beat up on SP. St. Louis is striking out 25.8-percent of the time, batting .165 (30th in MLB), with a .220 wOBA (30th in MLB), and a pathetic, and I mean pathetic, wRC+ of 33 over the last seven days. Moore gets a great park shift, has K upside (8.0 K/9), is a -122 favorite in a game with a low 7.5 expected run total. Moore has allowed three earned runs or less in four-out-of-five of his last starts while averaging nearly a strikeout per inning. I am all in on Moore tonight for the price as a GPP play or SP2. The BVP is miniscule which should make for an interesting night.

Luke Weaver, St. Louis Cardinals (SP2, GPP, Super DK value)

Weaver on DK tonight is the price of an elite hitter at $5,200. I find this way too low for the pitcher with the highest K/9 on the slate at 11.32. The problem is, he is facing the Giants who only strikeout 17.1 percent of the time with a decent .320 wOBA versus RHP. Weaver however in six starts now has allowed three earned runs or less in all of them, while averaging over five innings per start, with 39 strikeouts over 31 innings. He has a 2.70 ERA over his last two starts versus the Brewers and Pirates, and for the price, he sure is an option to load up on the big bats tonight. We have no BVP but one huge concern is LHB have a .384 wOBA versus Weaver which makes some of the beefy SF batters look even beefier.

Tom Koehler, Miami Marlins (SP2, GPP)

Koehler has a 1.29 ERA versus the Phillies over 28 innings this season. He is also cheap, and faces the worst offense in MLB. The Phillies have a .296 wOBA, and wRC+ of 82 versus RHP on the season, both of which are dead last in MLB. They also are dead last in home wOBA at .281, and the wRC+ gets even worse at 72. Just when you think the matchup could not get any better, the Phillies are batting a pathetic .239, striking out a whopping 29.8 percent of the time over the last seven days. Koehler is usually a pitcher I prefer at home, but, he does have 10 strikeouts over his last 11 innings, with a 3.27 ERA, and gets my call tonight versus this horrible excuse for an offense. The current Phillies roster is batting .205 (34-for-166), with three HR (Cody Asche, Freddy Galvis, and Ryan Howard), 18 RBI, and 41 strikeouts versus Koehler. Cha-Ching!

Ubaldo Jimenez, Baltimore Orioles (GPP, FD value, Aces semi-value)

The last time Ubaldo faced the Rays on the road he pitched a complete game striking out six while allowing three earned runs. He is slight underdog tonight and certainly does not get a great park shift pitching at home in this one. The Rays despite looking a little better lately are still striking out 25.6 percent of the time over the last seven days. Jimenez offers some K upside and is one of them players that if you play your matchup right can really pay off for cheap. His ERA is 5.98 opposed to his 4.71 xFIP which suggest he has been unlucky, but, the park shift could cancel that out. The current Rays roster is batting .207 (25-for-121), with two HR (Kevin Kiermaier – Red Hot and Logan Morrison), with 14 RBI, and a decent 29 strikeouts. On FD I will have some exposure to Jimenez, and would consider him on Aces as well.

Tyler Chatwood, Colorado Rockies (GPP)

Think about this, Tyler Chatwood has an ERA of 3.82. For a Colorado pitcher, that is phenomenal. The problem is, at Coors Field his ERA is 5.67, on the road, 1.77. What this tells me is Chatwood is a damn good SP. So, why not take a shot at home for the price in a GPP on FD or DK. If any team can be shut down in Colorado, it’s the San Diego Padres. The Padres are striking out 25.8 percent of the time with a low .303 wOBA (28^th in MLB) versus RHP on the season. Just because the game is being played in Coors Field it doesn’t always mean you will have a high scoring affair. For a few bucks, I am taking a shot here tonight facing the horrible Christian Friedrich. The current Padres roster is batting .216 (16-for-74) with one HR (Alex Dickerson), four RBI, and 14 strikeouts versus Chatwood. Don’t go heavy, but he is worth a flyer.

There were many options tonight with both Cole Hamels and Bartolo Colon piquing my interest. They just missed this article. Really, it was close.

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