DFS MLB Pitching Coach: September 11

Even though I completely understand, I found it heartbreaking to watch a Dodgers pitcher removed during a no-hitter, or perfect game, for the second time this season. First it was Ross Stripling and now, Rich Hill. With the departure of his infamous blister Hill, has now gone 19 innings without surrendering an earned run. Like I said in yesterday’s article, he will be the LHP who leads the Dodgers through the post season. Even though I completely understand the decision Dave Roberts made as he used the, “what is best for the organization” excuse as the reason. The thing is, the organization is the fans, like myself, are we selfish? Yes. Do we have millions of dollars tied up in the club? No. But, when you combine all the revenue the fan base brings, sometimes, you throw us a bone. Right, or wrong, try to find me another Dodgers fan who did not want to see that perfect game last night, regardless of playoff implications. He was smooth, efficient, and had a more-than-manageable pitch count at the time, that is all I am saying.

Where yesterday we had little in the way of mid-priced value, today that is pretty much all we have, opening the door for some spending sprees on hitting. So with Rich Hills blister healed, Kitty Colvin trying to talk to me, and a fresh cup of coffee, I bring you todays Pitching Coach Article.

Possible weather concerns

We have a cool front moving through the country so temperatures will be on the decline. Checking city-by-city, we have no weather concerns todays.

Keep in mind, it is 4 a.m. and weather has a funny way of changing.

Want MLB weather dates? Tune into the Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio from 4-to-6 p.m. Monday-Friday, hosted by Jeff Mans and Ted Schuster. Also follow our weather updates on Twitter @MLBDailyWeather.

Early Slate

I love this slate today. We have several viable starters to make things interesting, including a possible lethal GPP combo on DK I will reveal later. Sometimes the best pitchers to use, are not always the biggest names. Like today.

Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals (Cash or SP2 / GPP / you name it)

In 19 1/3 innings this season Gio has 17 strikeouts versus the Phillies while only allowing three earned runs. He gets a great park shift at home facing a Phillies team that is 30^th in MLB in both wOBA (.276) and wRC+ (68) versus LHP, while being a huge -248 favorite. Gio has an 8.58 K/9 which when combined with the fact the Phillies are batting .209, striking out 29.3 percent of the time over the last seven days, equals, what should be a great day in DFS. I am all in on Gio today for the price across the industry. The current Phillies roster is batting .214 (41-for-192) with five HR (Freddy Galvis (2) and Darin Ruf (3)), 16 RBI, and 47 strikeouts versus Gio.

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers (Cash on Aces and FD / GPP on DK)

If someone told me last season that Justin Verlander had the highest swinging strike rate on the slate (13.1-percent), I would assume it was a two game affair with Bartolo Colon, John Danks, and Joe Blanton as the other three starters. Not Chris Sale.

Even though the Orioles can hit RHP they do strikeout 21.8 percent of the time. Verlander has a K/9 of 9.65 and gets a great park shift at home in Detroit where he is 9-4. In his one start this season versus the Orioles (at Camden Yards) he went eight innings with eight strikeouts allowing only one earned run. Over his last three starts versus the White Sox twice and red hot Angels he has a 2.49 ERA with 28 strikeouts over 21 2/3 innings and is certainly the pitcher with the highest upside today in my opinion. The current Orioles roster is batting .235 (58-for-247) with eight HR (J.J. Hardy (3), Adam Jones (3), Jonathan Schoop, and Matt Weiters), 30 RBI, and 68 strikeouts versus Verlander.

*Verlanders high price tag on DK is why I have him listed as a GPP, for the price, there are better options with less risk.

Kenta Maeda, Los Angeles Dodgers (Cash / GPP)

Go Dodgers!

Maeda gets a decent park shift in Miami facing a Marlins team that has a subpar .316 wOBA versus RHP while striking out 23.2 percent of the time over the last seven days. He is a -170 favorite and this game has one of the lower expected run totals of the day at 8.0. In his last start versus Miami he did not fare so well, but over his last two starts including one in Colorado, he has a 2.38 ERA with 14 strikeouts over 11 1/3 innings. He is completely dialed in, and regardless of the small BVP, he is a top option. The current Marlins roster is batting .280 (7-for-25) with one HR (J.T. Realmuto), two RBI, and five strikeouts versus Maeda.

Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox (GPP)

I well imagine with the Royals infamous low strikeout totals, and high unpredictability, Chris Sale will be very low owned. You add in the hefty price tag and it almost assures it. Even though the Royals only strikeout 19.8 percent of the time versus LHP, they are 30^th in both wOBA (.292) and wRC+ (79) on the road. The last time Sale faced the Royals on Aug. 9^th he had seven strikeouts over seven innings while allowing three earned runs, and is a player I will run in at least one GPP today on FD. The BVP is vast and unfavorable (another reason he is a GPP only) with the current Royals batting .304 (109-for-359) with nine HR (Lorenzo Cain (out) (3), Eric Hosmer (2), Alcides Escobar, Kendrys Morales, Paulo Orlando, and Salvador Perez), 28 RBI, and 85 strikeouts versus Sale.

Seth Lugo, New York Mets (SP2 or GPP)

For the same price or less as Mike Trout, Corey Seager, and Trea Turner on DK you can have a SP in a decent matchup. Actually, he is cheap everywhere. Except Aces, where you are better spending up a bit.

Lugo gets what used to be a great park shift at Turner Field, but not as much anymore, facing a Braves team that has a .301 home wOBA (28^th in MLB) and low wRC+ of 86 to go with it. Although he is far from a strikeout machine, over his last two starts he has a 2.08 ERA versus the Nationals and Marlins at home with eight strikeouts over 13 innings. He did allow 11 hits in this span which can hurt a bit on DK, but on FD, certainly not a problem. The Braves can be dangerous and we have little to go by here, but for the price in a GPP, how can you not take a stab. No BVP available.

Luke Weaver, St. Louis Cardinals (Extreme Value on DK / GPP)

The Milwaukee Brewers are striking out 26.8 percent (first in MLB) of the time versus RHP, and 26.5 percent of the time on the road (second in MLB). The last time Luke Weaver faced the Brewers he struck out 10 batters over six innings at Milwaukee while allowing three earned runs. He gets a great park shift at home today and is only $4,800 on DK. To be honest, I had no intentions on playing any MLB lineups on DK today, just football, until I saw this price. There are 17 batters on DK more expensive than this SP with huge upside today, which I find impossible to resist.

DK Super Combo GPP

If you pair Seth Lugo with Luke Weaver today on DK, you will have a remaining salary of $4,975 per player while still having two pitchers who can put up decent numbers today in their respective matchups. What are you waiting for?

Evening Slate

This is the play light slate. I found it nearly impossible to get anyone I like outside of Jake Arrieta. Honestly, I am not even that big on him, facing the Astros. So instead of giving you individual player write ups for this slate, I will just give you a run down.

James Paxton has looked pretty good at times, has a great 8.44 K/9, and gets a great park shift in Oakland facing an A’s team batting .213 with a wRC+ of 75 over the last seven days. Paxton is the best cheaper option on the slate, and SP2.

Raul Alcantara? Versus the Chicago Cubs? Suicide.

Although Matt Moore has looked good at times he would be facing a RHB heavy lineup, perhaps all RHB, in a great hitter’s park. Arizona is also one of the hotter spots in MLB today. Regardless of his cheap price across the industry he is a fade to me. The thought of Paul Goldschmidt alone makes me want to cancel that entry.

Zack Greinke has allowed nine earned runs in his last 10 2/3 innings and is one of the few players I can say I actually despise in MLB.

Chad Bettis deserves a mild look, and I mean mild, the Padres have the ability to get hot and then not, I just have a feeling today will be the hot one.

Edwin Jackson, please.

Jake Arrieta is the top option on the slate but has looked terrible lately allowing eight earned runs over his last 12 1/3 innings. He gets a great park shift in Houston facing a powerful Astros team that only has a .313 home wOBA (25^th in MLB). They also strikeout 23.1 percent of the time versus RHP. He has the highest win probability with the mighty bats behind him facing Mike Fiers, who despite looking good as of late, and pitching better at home, is a complete fade versus the Cubs. In cash games I see no way you do not play Jake tonight, if you are playing them. Who else is there? Greinke? Nope.

 Good luck today. Check your catchers if they played last night.

Follow me on Twitter @RealJerryColvin or email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.com

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