With the weight of the world on my shoulders, for me, there’s nothing better than getting lost in the world of baseball. So with a nice fresh cup of dark roast this morning, I bring you today’s Pitching Coach.
Possible weather concerns
I only see three games right now with any possible weather implications.
The Rays-Yankees game has rain set to move in around 5 p.m. and it is only supposed to last for an hour-or-two. For this reason, I will be fading SP in this game at this time.
The Baltimore-Detroit game has a good chance of starting in a rain delay, but the showers should pass within an hour or so of start time.
The Reds-Pirates game has some minor weather issues with storms moving in around 9 p.m., how long they stay, or how heavy, is up in the air. SP should be ok in this one at this time.
Keep in mind, it is 4 a.m. and weather has a funny way of changing.
Want MLB weather dates? Tune into the Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio from 4-to-6 p.m. Monday-Friday, hosted by Jeff Mans and Ted Schuster. Also follow our weather updates on Twitter @MLBDailyWeather.
Early Slate
I have no plans on going heavy on this one today, and even though we have several good SP options, I find the matchups unfavorable, or, just simply do not like the play. I do have interest in Masahiro Tanaka if the weather clears, while Chris Archer I prefer at home. I see no reason to attack the Astros with Lackey but in a GPP I certainly can see it with the strikeout upside. Colin McHugh? Yeah, no way, and the same for Eduardo Rodriguez in Toronto, or J.A. Happ who has looked terrible versus the mighty Red Sox. That only leaves two players and they are in the same game.
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Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners (Cash game)
Although King Felix has looked a little dicey in his last few starts, he is the favorite on the road today in Oakland. The Athletics have a low .301 wOBA (28th in MLB) while striking out 20.5 percent of the time versus RHP. They struggle at home with a .298 wOBA to compliment the wRC+ of 90, and are also ice cold batting .203 over the last seven days. Felix has faced Oakland twice this season, with mix results, but does have a 2.04 ERA pitching at Oakland from 2013-2015. Although he walks his share of batters, he still has 7.56 K/9 (which I can live with) and gets a great park shift in Oakland facing a bad team. The current Athletics roster is batting .246 (61-for-248) with seven HR (Billy Butler, Stephen Vogt, Marcus Semien (3), Jed Lowrie, and Mark Canha), 17 RBI, and 57 strikeouts versus the King.
Kendall Graveman, Oakland Athletics (SP2 / Cash game)
The Mariners are not usually a great team to attack in DFS. But, Graveman has just looked to damn good to pass up on at the price. Over his last six starts versus the Orioles, Mariners, White Sox, Indians, Astros, and Red Sox he has a 1.93 ERA with 21 strikeouts over 42 innings. I realize the strikeout total is low but, so is the price, making him a great GPP play, or SP2, on a two pitcher site. Just keep in mind the Mariners have a .331 wOBA versus RHP, and are batting .300 over the last seven days. The BVP is not nice either with the current Mariners roster batting .323 (30-for-93) with two HR (Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz), 10 RBI, and 15 strikeouts versus Graveman. This looks much worse than it is, and I fully expect Gravemen to show them who’s boss today.
| vs L | vs R | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Player | Tm | Hand | Opp | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BAA | SwStr% | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | BABIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA | wOBA | $FD | $DK | $Aces |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | L | TOR | 82.0 | 7.25 | 3.18 | 1.54 | .245 | 10.7% | 4.83 | 4.64 | 1.31 | .264 | 35.7% | 43.0% | 0.83 | 0.332 | 0.320 | $7100 | $7300 | $7000 |
| John Lackey | CHI | R | HOU | 163.1 | 8.82 | 2.37 | 1.05 | .213 | 12.6% | 3.36 | 3.68 | 1.02 | .247 | 42.5% | 32.9% | 1.29 | 0.302 | 0.258 | $8800 | $10900 | $7200 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | R | CHI | 152.1 | 8.80 | 2.48 | 1.42 | .303 | 11.5% | 4.96 | 3.81 | 1.51 | .358 | 45.4% | 33.7% | 1.35 | 0.364 | 0.361 | $7300 | $5200 | $6150 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | R | TB | 179.1 | 7.52 | 1.56 | 0.85 | .238 | 11.6% | 3.11 | 3.57 | 1.08 | .278 | 49.0% | 28.2% | 1.73 | 0.274 | 0.280 | $9300 | $10800 | $7100 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | R | SEA | 163.0 | 5.25 | 2.26 | 1.16 | .264 | 8.2% | 3.81 | 4.40 | 1.28 | .275 | 53.7% | 26.2% | 2.05 | 0.333 | 0.298 | $6700 | $6900 | $6350 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | R | OAK | 127.1 | 7.56 | 3.96 | 1.13 | .227 | 10.4% | 3.75 | 4.30 | 1.28 | .259 | 54.6% | 25.5% | 2.14 | 0.317 | 0.308 | $9900 | $8500 | $7150 |
| Chris Archer | TB | R | NYY | 175.1 | 10.83 | 3.13 | 1.23 | .238 | 13.5% | 4.06 | 3.20 | 1.26 | .302 | 48.7% | 30.1% | 1.62 | 0.299 | 0.314 | $9700 | $10300 | $7250 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | L | BOS | 164.1 | 7.88 | 2.68 | 1.10 | .237 | 10.9% | 3.34 | 3.95 | 1.18 | .276 | 44.9% | 33.5% | 1.34 | 0.294 | 0.303 | $8800 | $9000 | $6800 |
Evening Slate
This is one of them slates where you are going to be paying for pitching. With so many bad pitchers going tonight, and little in the way of real value across the board, I believe the best strategy is to pay, pay, pay, for SP, and hunt cheap bats. Honestly, this is a strategy I employ quite often when we do not have a Coors Field game.
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Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals (AKA – The Brian Ambos doppelganger) (CHALK!!)
If you are playing cash games I see no way Max Scherzer is not 70-percent owned. He faces a Phillies team that is 30th in wOBA versus RHP at .297, and are striking out 27.8 percent of the time over the last seven days, while batting a pathetic .198. Scherzer is a monster -284 favorite, and his elite 11.11 K/9, and 16.7-percent swinging strike rate, are tops on the slate. Max has 16 strikeouts over his last 15 innings with a 2.40 ERA, including striking out 11 batters versus the same Phillies team over eight innings, while allowing only one earned run on Aug. 30th. He gets a great park shift at home facing a current Phillies roster that is batting .203 (39-for-192) with four HR (Andres Blanco, Tyler Goeddel, Ryan Howard, and Cameron Rupp), 13 RBI, and 62 strikeouts versus Mad Max and is without a doubt the numero uno tonight.
Rich Hill, Los Angeles Dodgers (Cash game or GPP)
So Rich Hill finally healed that infamous blister. I actually have a fantasy football team named “Rich Hills Blister” in our Fantasy Alarm league on Fantrax. Which is a great site if you have never played on it.
I well imagine tonight that the 30-percent of the field who do not take Scherzer will either have Hill, or my next player in their cash game lineups. Hill gets a decent park shift in Miami facing a Marlins team that strikes out 22 percent of the time versus LHP, and is 26th in MLB in home wOBA at .308. Hill has been amazing as of late striking out 11 batters over his last 12 innings while allowing zero earned runs. If you are a DK player he also has only allowed six hits while walking two which is quite an advantage. He is a sizeable -170 favorite and although the price tag is a bit high, so is my expectations. The BVP is very minimal but extremely favorable and when all is said and done, Hill be the LHP that carries the Dodgers in the post season.
Jon Gray, Colorado Rockies (Nice Aces value / Cash game / GPP)
As I have previously mentioned I find myself using Colorado SP more and more. This is a sign that the Rockies have put together a real nice staff. In seasonal leagues with daily moves I streamed Tyler Chatwood last night, and did the same for today with Gray where he was available.
Gray gets a great park shift anytime he leaves Colorado for the most part, and tonight is no different. The Padres are second in MLB in strikeouts versus RHP doing so 26.3 percent of the time with a low .303 wOBA. To make things better, they also are striking out 28.4 percent of the time over the last seven days while batting a pathetic .230. He is a -140 favorite facing LHP Christian Friedrich which should help you get that win bonus. His ERA is 4.51 opposed to his 3.78 xFIP which suggests he has been unlucky (imagine that in Coors Field), and I believe this certainly will translate in this matchup. I will have a lot of shares of this strikeout machine tonight hoping he does not make me feel blue. The current Padres roster is batting .153 (9-for-59) with one HR (Wil Myers), four RBI, and 22 strikeouts versus Mr. Gray. Cha-Ching!
Before moving on I highly suggest you try all avenues to pair two of the pitchers above tonight on a two-pitcher site.
Drew Hutchinson, Pittsburgh Pirates (GPP / Value play)
The Pirates new thing lately is fixing broken pitchers. Like Hutchinson. He gets a great park shift at home in PNC (especially compared to Toronto) facing a Reds team that is striking out 20.4 percent of the time with a low .308 wOBA (26th in MLB) versus RHP. If you have been doing this awhile you probably have already been through the Drew Hutchinson cycle before, and this is no different (for now). He offers huge strikeout upside with the possibility he gives up five or six earned runs. But, he also comes out every now-and-then and just shuts a team down, which I believe to be the case today. Vegas has him a -160 favorite and I could not agree more. We have zero BVP here outside of a two AB sample size. FIY, if you are new, he is kind of like using Trevor Bauer.
Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals (Borderline cash game / GPP play)
With not a lot of mid-priced, and cheap options tonight, I am going to be running at least one lineup with Adam Wainwright. He gets a great park shift at home and is a -193 favorite facing a red hot Brewers team. How hot are they? They are batting .332 over the last seven days. All good things must come to an end, and today I say the Brewers go back to being that team that strikes out 27 percent of the time (first in MLB) versus RHP. His home ERA is 3.09 compared to his 6.13 road ERA so park shift is a major factor here. Over his last two starts he been better than expected striking out 12 batters over 12 innings with a 3.75 ERA versus the Pirates and same Brewers team on the road (who he only allowed one earned run against over seven innings striking out seven). The current Brewers roster is batting .215 (31-for-144) with two HR (Ryan Braun both), nine RBI, and 37 strikeouts versus Wainwright.
| vs L | vs R | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Player | Tm | Hand | Opp | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BAA | SwStr% | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | BABIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA | wOBA | $FD | $DK | $Aces |
| Archie Bradley | ARI | R | SF | 117.0 | 8.46 | 4.00 | 1.23 | .268 | 8.5% | 4.85 | 4.27 | 1.52 | .309 | 50.1% | 27.2% | 1.84 | 0.401 | 0.287 | $6400 | $6600 | $6300 |
| John Gant | ATL | R | NYM | 38.1 | 9.15 | 2.82 | 1.17 | .275 | 10.4% | 4.70 | 3.80 | 1.38 | .324 | 43.4% | 30.2% | 1.44 | 0.343 | 0.365 | $5300 | $5400 | $6000 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | R | DET | 116.1 | 7.74 | 4.72 | 1.08 | .285 | 8.9% | 6.19 | 4.74 | 1.69 | .335 | 48.0% | 31.0% | 1.55 | 0.410 | 0.319 | $6200 | $6900 | $5750 |
| Robert Stephenson | CIN | R | PIT | 17.1 | 6.75 | 2.60 | 2.08 | .231 | 10.6% | 3.12 | 4.82 | 1.15 | .229 | 30.8% | 44.2% | 0.70 | 0.298 | 0.382 | $6400 | $6700 | $6500 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | R | MIN | 37.1 | 8.43 | 5.30 | 0.96 | .239 | 10.3% | 5.30 | 4.76 | 1.50 | .286 | 41.1% | 35.5% | 1.16 | 0.264 | 0.375 | $5500 | $4600 | $5850 |
| Jon Gray | COL | R | SD | 145.2 | 9.45 | 2.97 | 0.99 | .239 | 12.8% | 4.51 | 3.78 | 1.24 | .295 | 46.2% | 30.7% | 1.50 | 0.308 | 0.307 | $8200 | $10600 | $6400 |
| James Shields | CWS | R | KC | 151.1 | 5.14 | 3.81 | 2.08 | .316 | 9.1% | 7.50 | 5.18 | 3.24 | .305 | 41.9% | 36.1% | 1.16 | 0.371 | 0.413 | $6100 | $5600 | $5650 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | R | BAL | 97.1 | 5.54 | 1.85 | 0.92 | .279 | 8.4% | 4.44 | 4.44 | 1.31 | .300 | 45.3% | 35.4% | 1.28 | 0.295 | 0.360 | $8400 | $6300 | $6050 |
| Edinson Volquez | KC | R | CWS | 166.2 | 6.70 | 3.13 | 1.08 | .281 | 9.2% | 5.02 | 4.33 | 1.47 | .311 | 54.2% | 24.8% | 2.19 | 0.336 | 0.334 | $7000 | $6100 | $5900 |
| Rich Hill | LA | L | MIA | 88.0 | 8.25 | 3.07 | 0.20 | .143 | 12.0% | 0.00 | 3.33 | 1.76 | .274 | 50.9% | 30.2% | 1.69 | 0.186 | 0.263 | $9200 | $11300 | $7300 |
| Daniel Wright | LAA | R | TEX | 13.0 | 4.16 | 1.38 | 1.38 | .417 | 7.4% | 7.62 | 5.31 | 2.08 | .418 | 40.0% | 29.1% | 1.38 | 0.466 | 0.427 | $5500 | $4100 | $5200 |
| Tom Koehler | MIA | R | LA | 156.0 | 7.33 | 3.46 | 0.87 | .258 | 10.4% | 3.87 | 4.57 | 1.41 | .298 | 45.2% | 31.0% | 1.46 | 0.326 | 0.316 | $7300 | $7200 | $6650 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | R | STL | 129.1 | 7.31 | 3.13 | 1.74 | .269 | 9.2% | 4.73 | 4.61 | 1.39 | .288 | 38.2% | 36.9% | 1.03 | 0.303 | 0.400 | $6400 | $6400 | $5700 |
| Hector Santiago | MIN | L | CLE | 151.3 | 5.74 | 3.97 | 1.72 | .302 | 9.6% | 7.47 | 4.71 | 2.90 | .263 | 39.7% | 45.3% | 0.88 | 0.352 | 0.339 | $7600 | $5200 | $5700 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | R | ATL | 164.2 | 5.90 | 1.48 | 1.04 | .271 | 6.2% | 3.23 | 4.22 | 1.23 | .294 | 45.5% | 30.7% | 1.48 | 0.338 | 0.293 | $7700 | $7000 | $6600 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | R | WSH | 167.2 | 7.41 | 1.93 | 1.18 | .261 | 9.8% | 3.87 | 4.10 | 1.22 | .286 | 42.6% | 35.3% | 1.21 | 0.348 | 0.291 | $8000 | $7500 | $6200 |
| Drew Hutchison | PIT | R | CIN | 12.2 | 8.52 | 2.84 | 2.84 | .271 | 11.2% | 4.97 | 4.30 | 1.34 | .281 | 37.1% | 37.1% | 1.00 | 0.277 | 0.476 | $7300 | $6500 | $6100 |
| Christian Friedrich | SD | L | COL | 104.2 | 6.53 | 3.70 | 1.12 | .274 | 8.9% | 4.99 | 4.78 | 1.51 | .297 | 47.5% | 33.9% | 1.40 | 0.308 | 0.342 | $5400 | $4500 | $5500 |
| Johnny Cueto | SF | R | ARI | 191.1 | 7.90 | 1.79 | 0.66 | .239 | 10.1% | 2.92 | 3.48 | 1.09 | .287 | 52.7% | 27.6% | 1.91 | 0.294 | 0.267 | $9500 | $11000 | $7350 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | R | MIL | 168.0 | 7.18 | 2.30 | 0.80 | .282 | 9.2% | 4.61 | 4.10 | 1.35 | .323 | 47.2% | 28.2% | 1.67 | 0.351 | 0.313 | $8500 | $8100 | $6950 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | L | LAA | 174.2 | 9.02 | 3.45 | 1.08 | .241 | 13.3% | 3.25 | 3.80 | 1.31 | .296 | 51.0% | 28.7% | 1.78 | 0.280 | 0.317 | $9400 | $9500 | $7400 |
| Max Scherzer | WSH | R | PHI | 197.0 | 11.11 | 2.10 | 1.19 | .190 | 16.7% | 2.88 | 2.98 | 0.92 | .242 | 36.3% | 44.9% | 0.81 | 0.312 | 0.202 | $11500 | $14400 | $8000 |
Good luck today. Check your catchers if they played last night.
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