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Good morning, campers. It’s Wednesday, so we’ve got a nice split slate to play around with and I can assure you that we’ve got all the right pitchers today. The recent rotation shuffles and injuries have mixed some things around, but we’re rolling with the punches and ready to go. I’ve split the data charts into early and late slates again, and have made recommendations for each one. Best of luck to you today!
Early
| vs L | vs R | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Player | Tm | Hand | H/A | Opp | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BAA | SwStr% | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA | wOBA | $FD | $DK | $Aces |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | R | H | MIA | 81.0 | 8.56 | 2.11 | 0.67 | .242 | 12.2% | 2.67 | 3.38 | 1.12 | 50.5% | 25.9% | 1.95 | 0.274 | 0.291 | $10300 | $10000 | $6850 |
| Tanner Roark | WSH | R | H | MIL | 100.1 | 7.98 | 2.78 | 0.63 | .241 | 9.2% | 2.96 | 3.69 | 1.22 | 57.2% | 22.6% | 2.53 | 0.263 | 0.309 | $9000 | $10500 | $6400 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | R | A | CLE | 63.2 | 8.48 | 3.25 | 0.85 | .214 | 11.9% | 2.40 | 4.00 | 1.16 | 48.9% | 31.6% | 1.55 | 0.255 | 0.309 | $8800 | $9300 | $6350 |
| Josh Tomlin | CLE | R | H | DET | 89.1 | 5.64 | 0.81 | 1.81 | .250 | 7.8% | 3.33 | 4.18 | 1.06 | 42.3% | 37.1% | 1.14 | 0.315 | 0.315 | $8600 | $8200 | $6350 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | R | A | LAD | 75.2 | 8.21 | 2.14 | 1.43 | .263 | 11.8% | 3.93 | 3.73 | 1.27 | 48.4% | 31.6% | 1.54 | 0.265 | 0.362 | $8400 | $8600 | $6000 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | R | A | MIN | 78.2 | 7.21 | 3.32 | 1.26 | .277 | 8.7% | 5.03 | 4.14 | 1.46 | 55.3% | 24.5% | 2.26 | 0.317 | 0.372 | $8000 | $5900 | $6200 |
| Bud Norris | LAD | R | H | BAL | 76.1 | 8.02 | 3.42 | 0.71 | 0.241 | 9.4% | 3.89 | 4.03 | 1.30 | 49.1% | 29.2% | 1.68 | 0.356 | 0.253 | $7,100 | $6,000 | $5,900 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | R | A | CHI | 23.2 | 5.71 | 2.28 | 0.76 | .279 | 8.7% | 1.52 | 4.66 | 1.31 | 47.9% | 30.1% | 1.59 | 0.366 | 0.284 | $7100 | $8900 | $5900 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | R | H | ATL | 93.2 | 8.07 | 2.31 | 1.54 | .256 | 12.3% | 4.23 | 3.85 | 1.23 | 44.9% | 29.8% | 1.51 | 0.382 | 0.306 | $7100 | $9200 | $6000 |
| Adam Warren | CHI | R | H | CIN | 25.2 | 6.31 | 4.91 | 1.40 | 0.227 | 10.3% | 4.56 | 5.36 | 1.40 | 46.2% | 38.5% | 1.20 | 0.329 | 0.297 | $6,800 | $4,200 | $5,650 |
| Justin Nicolino | MIA | L | A | NYM | 60.2 | 4.15 | 2.23 | 0.89 | 0.316 | 4.9% | 5.34 | 5.05 | 1.55 | 44.5% | 32.6% | 1.37 | 0.279 | 0.378 | $6,500 | $4,000 | $5,550 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | R | H | OAK | 77.2 | 6.37 | 2.55 | 1.27 | .292 | 9.9% | 4.64 | 4.38 | 1.44 | 45.5% | 33.7% | 1.35 | 0.324 | 0.365 | $6200 | $6100 | $5850 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | R | A | WSH | 16.0 | 4.50 | 2.25 | 0.00 | .323 | 6.7% | 2.81 | 4.87 | 1.50 | 51.7% | 29.3% | 1.76 | 0.309 | 0.390 | $6000 | $5400 | $5600 |
| Tyrell Jenkins | ATL | R | A | PHI | 9.1 | 5.79 | 5.79 | 1.93 | 0.308 | 3.8% | 5.79 | 5.43 | 1.93 | 48.4% | 29.0% | 1.67 | 0.417 | 0.390 | $4,000 | $5,400 | $5,500 |
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Tanner Roark, WAS – The Brewers just don’t look good right now and have posted just a .301 wOBA with a 22.6-percent strikeout rate over the past week. In addition to that, they own a dreadful 25.9-percent K-rate against right-handed pitching this whole season.
Kevin Gausman, BAL – Some of the right-handed bats concern me a little, as some of the guys are swinging the sticks a little better, but overall, we’re still looking at a team that struggles at home (.302 wOBA) and has a .308 wOBA with a 20.3-percent strikeout rate against right-handers for the year.
Sonny Gray, OAK – His last outing was a bit rough as the Pirates got the better of him, but heading into that game he had thrown back-to-back quality starts with a 10:2 K:BB over 12 innings. The Twins are sitting on a .304 wOBA with a 22.2-percent strikeout rate against righties this season, so while I don’t expect a shutout, I do expect another quality start with decent, not spectacular, strikeouts.
Jeremy Hellickson, PHI – Time to pick on the Braves again! They rank dead last with a .283 wOBA against righties this year and have just a .286 wOBA with a 20.4-percent strikeout rate over the past week.
Ervin Santana, MIN – Who doesn’t love a good daytime dart? While grabbing the win away from Sonny Gray may be a tall order here, the A’s run support may not be all that strong. They may not strike out much, but their .298 wOBA against righties has fallen thanks to a .287 mark over the last seven days.
Late
| vs L | vs R | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Player | Tm | Hand | H/A | Opp | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BAA | SwStr% | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA | wOBA | $FD | $DK | $Aces |
| Johnny Cueto | SF | R | H | COL | 115.1 | 7.65 | 1.79 | 0.31 | .226 | 10.4% | 2.42 | 3.48 | 1.02 | 54.9% | 24.7% | 2.23 | 0.291 | 0.238 | $10800 | $11800 | $6800 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | R | H | TEX | 103.0 | 7.34 | 3.32 | 0.44 | .207 | 11.4% | 2.18 | 4.27 | 1.14 | 48.5% | 32.6% | 1.48 | 0.243 | 0.275 | $9200 | $9400 | $6450 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | R | A | CWS | 89.1 | 10.88 | 2.32 | 1.51 | 0.275 | 14.3% | 5.24 | 3.27 | 1.38 | 42.9% | 33.9% | 1.27 | 0.349 | 0.346 | $9,100 | $10,600 | $6,450 |
| Drew Smyly | TB | L | H | LAA | 89.2 | 10.04 | 1.91 | 1.91 | .263 | 13.6% | 5.32 | 3.51 | 1.24 | 34.3% | 44.4% | 0.77 | 0.318 | 0.342 | $9000 | $8100 | $6300 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | L | H | PIT | 88.0 | 7.67 | 2.86 | 0.72 | .267 | 8.9% | 4.09 | 3.80 | 1.38 | 58.4% | 22.8% | 2.56 | 0.310 | 0.313 | $8300 | $8300 | $6300 |
| Ian Kennedy | KC | R | A | TOR | 88.2 | 8.63 | 2.94 | 1.93 | .230 | 10.8% | 3.96 | 4.22 | 1.18 | 36.1% | 47.3% | 0.76 | 0.325 | 0.314 | $8200 | $9100 | $6300 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | R | H | SEA | 83.2 | 6.02 | 1.83 | 1.40 | .288 | 9.6% | 4.41 | 4.44 | 1.35 | 45.6% | 26.8% | 1.70 | 0.327 | 0.368 | $7700 | $6700 | $6100 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | L | A | BOS | 96.2 | 4.37 | 3.82 | 0.84 | .261 | 8.3% | 3.45 | 4.95 | 1.39 | 56.2% | 23.0% | 2.44 | 0.211 | 0.344 | $7400 | $5100 | $5750 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | R | H | KC | 101.1 | 6.31 | 2.75 | 0.89 | .283 | 9.3% | 5.33 | 4.01 | 1.42 | 60.9% | 17.8% | 3.41 | 0.357 | 0.323 | $7100 | $6400 | $6300 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | L | A | STL | 89.2 | 4.62 | 2.61 | 1.20 | .276 | 9.2% | 5.12 | 4.80 | 1.37 | 49.7% | 29.9% | 1.66 | 0.295 | 0.361 | $6900 | $6000 | $5900 |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | R | H | SD | 58.1 | 6.17 | 4.32 | 1.85 | .310 | 8.7% | 6.79 | 5.26 | 1.77 | 44.7% | 29.5% | 1.52 | 0.421 | 0.357 | $6900 | $4600 | $5750 |
| Jorge De La Rosa | COL | L | A | SF | 48.2 | 9.06 | 4.25 | 2.03 | .286 | 12.2% | 6.47 | 4.25 | 1.64 | 53.8% | 27.6% | 1.95 | 0.348 | 0.393 | $6600 | $6300 | $5700 |
| Wade LeBlanc | SEA | L | A | HOU | 6.0 | 4.50 | 1.50 | 0.00 | .150 | 8.1% | 0.00 | 4.52 | 0.67 | 35.3% | 41.2% | 0.86 | 0.429 | 0.098 | $6500 | $7900 | $5800 |
| Jered Weaver | LAA | R | A | TB | 94.2 | 5.13 | 2.47 | 1.90 | 0.297 | 8.4% | 5.51 | 5.69 | 1.48 | 29.8% | 47.5% | 0.63 | 0.362 | 0.373 | $6,400 | $5,800 | $5,500 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CWS | R | H | NYY | 55.2 | 7.11 | 3.72 | 0.97 | .286 | 10.3% | 5.17 | 4.67 | 1.55 | 46.6% | 32.8% | 1.42 | 0.342 | 0.347 | $6200 | $5,200 | $5850 |
| Colin Rea | SD | R | A | ARI | 76.2 | 7.16 | 3.52 | 0.82 | .255 | 7.2% | 5.05 | 4.74 | 1.42 | 48.5% | 24.0% | 2.02 | 0.328 | 0.315 | $5800 | $7200 | $5700 |
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Johnny Cueto, SF – Surprisingly, the Rockies bats – which have now posted an atrocious .255 wOBA with a 30-percent strikeout rate over the last seven days – got the better of the Giants’ bullpen yesterday. Here’s hoping they can’t or, at the least, Cueto can go more than the six scoreless frames MadBum threw in the loss. Cueto should earn his price today.
Michael Pineda, NYY – Yesterday I cited Pineda’s recent turnaround and heavy surge in his overall strikeout rate. We’re talking 49 strikeouts over his last 36 innings with no more than three earned runs allowed in five of his last six starts. The White Sox have just a .306 wOBA against right-handers this season and are sitting on a 23.2-percent strikeout rate over the last seven days.
Marcus Stroman, TOR – The Royals are really struggling as a team and Kendrys Morales can’t win every game for them. Collectively, they’ve posted a dismal .280 wOBA with a 21.6-percent strikeout rate over the last week and with their 47.2-percent ground ball rate against righties, Stroman’s 3.41 GB/FB should help control this game.
Jeff Locke, PIT – How about a Locke dart? I’m certainly not a long-term believer in the veteran southpaw, but he’s allowed just four runs in his last three starts (18.2 innings) and has earned the win in each outing thanks to an improved ground ball rate. He tossed a quality start back in early May, his only outing against the Cardinals this year, and now gets them while they’re cold, posting just a .304 wOBA against lefties this season and a .297 wOBA with a .101 ISO over the past week.
Jered Weaver, LAA – Another normally untrustworthy GPP dart, but the Rays have looked super-ugly lately with a .273 wOBA and 26-percent strikeout rate over the past seven days. As a second pitcher on DK or Aces in a GPP, he could deliver a nice return.