Just like riding a bike, isn’t it? OK, so Strasburg and Gray sucked the big one for us in some of our games yesterday, but overall, the Pitching Coach did pretty well considering the brain was still in the midst of a major Phish scramble! Let’s see if we can carry that momentum here on a big 15-game night slate. Let’s start with the data and then turn to some recommendations.
| vs L | vs R | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Player | Tm | Hand | H/A | Opp | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BAA | SwStr% | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA | wOBA | $FD | $DK | $Aces |
| Madison Bumgarner | SF | L | A | NYY | 135.2 | 10.29 | 2.19 | 0.93 | .201 | 12.7% | 2.12 | 3.10 | 0.98 | 43.5% | 36.7% | 1.19 | 0.213 | 0.272 | $11500 | $13000 | $7100 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | R | H | SF | 123.0 | 7.32 | 1.68 | 0.80 | .237 | 11.7% | 3.15 | 3.65 | 1.09 | 50.3% | 26.1% | 1.93 | 0.273 | 0.281 | $9100 | $8600 | $6900 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | R | A | KC | 20.0 | 12.60 | 4.50 | 0.45 | .192 | 12.8% | 3.15 | 3.10 | 1.20 | 45.7% | 28.3% | 1.62 | 0.323 | 0.183 | $9100 | $11300 | $6850 |
| Danny Duffy | KC | L | H | TEX | 88.0 | 10.33 | 1.84 | 1.23 | .235 | 14.9% | 3.27 | 3.24 | 1.07 | 39.0% | 42.6% | 0.92 | 0.213 | 0.322 | $8900 | $9700 | $6350 |
| Adam Conley | MIA | L | H | NYM | 104.2 | 8.86 | 3.27 | 0.86 | .237 | 11.0% | 3.61 | 4.29 | 1.29 | 41.4% | 37.5% | 1.10 | 0.323 | 0.304 | $8800 | $9400 | $6400 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | R | H | LAA | 62.1 | 11.55 | 5.34 | 0.29 | .268 | 13.2% | 3.61 | 3.51 | 1.64 | 56.1% | 18.5% | 3.03 | 0.349 | 0.323 | $8800 | $8200 | $6600 |
| Matt Shoemaker | LAA | R | A | HOU | 106.0 | 9.34 | 1.78 | 1.10 | .268 | 14.6% | 4.08 | 3.57 | 1.26 | 39.4% | 36.1% | 1.09 | 0.295 | 0.340 | $8700 | $10000 | $6650 |
| Tanner Roark | WSH | R | H | SD | 124.2 | 7.65 | 2.53 | 0.51 | .241 | 9.4% | 2.82 | 3.71 | 1.17 | 55.7% | 24.3% | 2.29 | 0.260 | 0.294 | $8700 | $10500 | $6700 |
| Jason Hammel | CHI | R | A | MIL | 102.1 | 7.56 | 2.73 | 1.23 | .222 | 11.1% | 3.34 | 4.10 | 1.10 | 46.2% | 32.4% | 1.43 | 0.367 | 0.245 | $8600 | $7900 | $6500 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | R | H | PHI | 72.1 | 7.46 | 2.61 | 0.37 | .275 | 8.4% | 3.11 | 4.19 | 1.37 | 45.0% | 26.4% | 1.71 | 0.355 | 0.274 | $8500 | $7400 | $6750 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | R | A | CWS | 84.2 | 8.18 | 2.87 | 0.64 | .206 | 12.3% | 2.13 | 3.78 | 1.08 | 51.9% | 30.3% | 1.71 | 0.259 | 0.269 | $8500 | $11700 | $6350 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | R | H | SEA | 104.1 | 8.54 | 3.36 | 1.21 | .173 | 11.6% | 2.93 | 4.07 | 0.99 | 35.8% | 45.8% | 0.78 | 0.278 | 0.239 | $8400 | $10700 | $6300 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | R | A | BAL | 107.0 | 8.16 | 3.11 | 0.67 | .232 | 10.5% | 3.36 | 3.91 | 1.22 | 51.2% | 28.6% | 1.79 | 0.293 | 0.281 | $8200 | $8900 | $6300 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LA | R | A | STL | 16.0 | 12.38 | 2.25 | 0.56 | .148 | 11.5% | 1.69 | 2.27 | 0.75 | 43.8% | 43.8% | 1.00 | 0.341 | 0.136 | $8100 | $9300 | $6500 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TB | R | A | OAK | 110.2 | 8.54 | 2.68 | 1.46 | .252 | 10.5% | 4.39 | 4.02 | 1.27 | 38.6% | 38.6% | 1.00 | 0.290 | 0.346 | $8000 | $6600 | $5950 |
| Jon Gray | COL | R | H | ATL | 95.2 | 9.69 | 2.92 | 1.13 | .227 | 13.4% | 4.33 | 3.61 | 1.17 | 48.8% | 29.0% | 1.68 | 0.290 | 0.311 | $7700 | $8400 | $6250 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | R | A | COL | 125.2 | 8.02 | 1.79 | 1.15 | .203 | 11.5% | 2.79 | 3.71 | 0.95 | 43.3% | 38.4% | 1.13 | 0.293 | 0.236 | $7700 | $6500 | $6750 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | R | H | LA | 109.1 | 7.98 | 2.63 | 0.82 | .272 | 9.1% | 4.45 | 4.07 | 1.42 | 47.8% | 26.3% | 1.82 | 0.317 | 0.331 | $7400 | $7100 | $6000 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | R | H | CHI | 114.0 | 6.55 | 3.79 | 0.95 | .250 | 7.8% | 3.40 | 4.76 | 1.37 | 50.3% | 31.6% | 1.59 | 0.329 | 0.315 | $7100 | $6700 | $5950 |
| Logan Verrett | NYM | R | A | MIA | 62.0 | 5.95 | 3.63 | 1.45 | .271 | 8.6% | 4.21 | 4.95 | 1.48 | 48.7% | 30.7% | 1.59 | 0.328 | 0.393 | $6900 | $4100 | $5700 |
| Archie Bradley | ARI | R | A | CIN | 70.0 | 8.87 | 3.86 | 1.29 | .246 | 9.2% | 4.37 | 4.12 | 1.41 | 48.2% | 28.6% | 1.68 | 0.376 | 0.291 | $6600 | $7300 | $5800 |
| James Paxton | SEA | L | A | TOR | 53.1 | 7.76 | 2.19 | 0.68 | .326 | 12.4% | 4.56 | 3.91 | 1.63 | 51.1% | 26.7% | 1.91 | 0.345 | 0.355 | $6500 | $6100 | $5600 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | L | H | MIN | 36.1 | 5.45 | 3.47 | 2.48 | .291 | 9.1% | 7.18 | 5.54 | 1.57 | 31.7% | 49.2% | 0.65 | 0.416 | 0.387 | $6400 | $5000 | $5850 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | R | H | ARI | 108.1 | 6.98 | 3.74 | 1.08 | .212 | 10.3% | 4.07 | 4.86 | 1.18 | 36.7% | 40.7% | 0.90 | 0.307 | 0.283 | $6400 | $6900 | $5800 |
| Luis Perdomo | SD | R | A | WSH | 69.2 | 7.50 | 2.97 | 1.42 | .350 | 10.7% | 7.36 | 4.27 | 1.95 | 59.0% | 18.3% | 3.22 | 0.401 | 0.403 | $6300 | $4000 | $5700 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | L | H | TB | 72.0 | 7.37 | 2.38 | 1.38 | .270 | 12.0% | 5.13 | 4.26 | 1.33 | 42.4% | 35.7% | 1.19 | 0.253 | 0.354 | $6200 | $7700 | $5900 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | R | A | BOS | 63.1 | 6.40 | 3.13 | 0.99 | .287 | 9.8% | 5.12 | 4.51 | 1.52 | 53.8% | 22.6% | 2.38 | 0.366 | 0.313 | $6100 | $4500 | $5650 |
| Zach Eflin | PHI | R | A | PIT | 41.1 | 4.36 | 1.52 | 1.31 | .256 | 6.8% | 4.14 | 4.98 | 1.21 | 38.2% | 36.8% | 1.04 | 0.308 | 0.332 | $5900 | $6800 | $5800 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | R | H | CLE | 41.1 | 7.84 | 2.40 | 1.31 | .307 | 11.8% | 3.70 | 4.83 | 1.60 | 33.1% | 46.5% | 0.71 | 0.348 | 0.373 | $4700 | $4000 | $5300 |
| Jacob Turner | CWS | R | H | DET | 4.0 | 4.50 | 6.75 | 4.50 | .389 | 13.8% | 18.00 | 6.72 | 2.50 | 43.8% | 25.0% | 1.75 | 0.225 | 0.727 | $4700 | $4200 | $5350 |
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Madison Bumgarner, SF – I’ll give MadBum a pass on his last outing considering the Padres hit lefties well, so I’m ready to get back on the horse here because the Yankees do not. In fact, the Bombers rank 27th in the league with a .304 wOBA against southpaws this year and are sporting a meager .131 ISO against them as well. How about a little fuel for the fire as the Yanks are also sporting just a .283 wOBA over the past week with only a .371 slugging percentage? MadBum may not see the usual K’s given the Yankees’ overall plate discipline, but you may see some low ownership numbers given the price tag.
Yu Darvish, TEX – Going deep into the game could be a problem here, especially when Darvish hasn’t thrown more than 90 pitches in an outing and has been having some expected command issues since returning. But these are not the same well-disciplined Royals as their K-rate has been sitting at 21.6-percent over the past week and they’ve posted a walk rate barely at league-average. Their .284 wOBA over the same time span is weak as well. The command will come back at some point for Darvish and the Royals are ripe for the picking, but given the price tag on FanDuel and Draft Kings, you may want to only consider him for GPPs on Fantasy Aces as the juice may not be worth the squeeze.
Adam Conley, MIA – He made his second start of the season against the Mets and blanked them for six innings and logged nine strikeouts. The Mets are a struggling bunch at the plate right now with their .287 wOBA over the past week and have a 23.8-percent strikeout rate against lefties this year. If Conley can get them to swing through enough (love that 11.0-percent swinging strike rate) and keep them off-balance, he should be able to keep the runs off the board and the hits to a minimum.
Tanner Roark, WAS – Where’s my buddy Don? I want to pick on the Padres again! Sure, they came back against some weak-ass relievers yesterday, but Adam Wainwright dominated them for six innings and their overall numbers are suffering as a result. The have a .288 wOBA with a 24.6-percent strikeout rate against right-handers this season and while that wOBA is sitting at .318 over the past week, they’ve looked bad against recent starters and are posting an obscene 27.3-percent K-rate in that span. I’ll be going back to this well early and often!
Gerrit Cole, PIT – Been a while since I last put this chucklehead’s name in the Pitching Coach, huh? But how do you not when he’s got the Phillies today? Throughout the season, the Phillies have been ranked at or near the bottom against right-handed pitching and are currently sporting a 28th-ranked .295 wOBA with a 21.4-percent strikeout rate. Over the past week, it’s gotten even worse. How much worse? How about a .220 wOBA over the last seven days with a 26-percent strikeout rate and a .284 slugging percentage? Yeah, it’s that bad.
Michael Fulmer, DET – A bit odd that Fulmer has yet to face the White Sox at all this year, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a fantastic play today. His ground ball rate, wOBA splits and 12.3-percent swinging strike rate are downright sexy and the White Sox are sitting on a .291 wOBA over the past week with a 20.6-percent strikeout rate and if you go to their numbers against right-handed pitching, you’ll notice a 24th-ranked .305 wOBA with a 21.1-percent K-rate, a below-average walk rate and an ugly 46.4-percent ground ball rate.
Jake Odorizzi, TB – Well, you have to figure the run support is going to be there as the Rays destroy lefties and they’ll be facing the always-hittable Sean Manaea tonight. For Odorizzi, the match-up seems just as favorable as it does for the team’s bats. While the A’s may be swinging the sticks a little better as of late, they’re still posting a 22.5-percent strikeout rate over the past week and continue to rack up poor numbers against right-handed pitching. To date, they’ve got a 26th-ranked .300 wOBA against righties with an OPS that sits just below .700.
Archie Bradley, ARI – He’s got back-to-back quality starts under his belt now and three in his last four outings. It would be nice to see him record an out beyond the sixth inning, but as a second starter on Draft Kings or Fantasy Aces, the six frames should be just fine. The Reds are looking solid with a .331 wOBA over the last seven days, but that comes against some sad-sack Braves pitching. It also comes with a weak .122 ISO, so while they’ve played well, they’re not hitting for any kind of power. Focus on that and the fact that they still have just a .298 wOBA with a 22-percent strikeout rate against righties this year.