DFS MLB Pitching Coach: July 31

Pregnant women can be very cranky at times. Besides the four little girls already living with me I also have a pregnant wife with, you guessed it, another girl. So once again I get to order infant clothes with Dodgers logos on them in the color pink. My hopes of sitting on the first base line at Dodger Stadium while little Jerry takes his first big league at-bat has been dashed again. Back to the drawing board.

I am leaving tomorrow morning with the family for a four-day camping trip. No MLB, no DFS, just four days in the woods with a pregnant wife and four little girls. I am bringing my phone, though, which means without a doubt at some point I will be hiding behind a tree throwing in a few GPPs here and there. At least I am honest.

So with Quick Pitch in the background and a fresh cup of coffee, I bring you today’s Pitching Coach article.

The Real Jerry Colvin amateur Weather Report

OK, so I am not a real weather man. I simply go the National Weather Forecast and spend a few minutes looking over the map. I check for rain location, temperatures, and dew points. Focusing on the areas where there will be MLB. It is just scratching 4 a.m. as I write this so please understand that the weather changes. Quickly at times. I would only use my forecast for a quick glance to make myself aware of where baseballs can fly or die and weather could kill your night. Just understand, I am not doing anything here that no one else could do but glance at a weather page. I am doing this just as a courtesy to provide the best content possible while trying to give you the heads up for your day. Weather is more important when it comes to pitching than hitting. Fact.

Today’s Forecast

To be honest today’s forecast is pretty much the same as yesterday. California as usual has the best MLB weather from North to South. Temps across the country today are going to be the usual July-August temps with the usual heat and humidity. It is going to be blazing in Texas today with temps ranging from the low too high 90’s, while from Chicago all the way to Massachusetts it is going to be in the high-70’s to low-80’s. It is pouring here in Western Mass right now and the forecast has giant green blotches engulfing most of the East Coast. The three games today I would keep a real close eye on are in New York, Detroit, and Atlanta. It’s summer, it’s hot, it’s humid, and runs will be scored.

Want MLB weather dates? Tune into the Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio from 4-to-6 p.m. Monday-Friday, hosted by Jeff Mans and Ted Schuster. Also follow are weather updates on Twitter @MLBDailyWeather.

Day Slate

I wish just once FanDuel would give DraftKings a call and get on the same page with the contests. Maybe they do not realize it but when you add in or negate games, it totally changes everything as far as player value, and such. It would be nice to research with one slate of games. I love diversity, but not with this. The day slate today has plenty of pitching options which should make it so no one pitcher in particular is highly owned. You will have that top tier of ownership floating from 10-15 percent with it going downhill from there.

Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets (Weather Concerns!)

Noah Syndergaard at home facing the Colorado Rockies almost seems like a match made in heaven. The thing is, maybe the gods know Thor is taking the mound because we have some serious weather concerns here. According to the hourly we have thunderstorms pretty much all day with a slight break for around an hour so at 4 p.m. Honestly, this one is looking pretty bad right now but just in case things change I am going to give you the break down.

Thor gets a positive park shift at home today taking on a Rockies team that is striking out 20.3 percent of the time with a whopping .343 wOBA versus RHP. Take away the Coors Field effect and the Rockies wOBA drops to a pathetic .298 which is 26^th in MLB. Even though Carlos Gonzalez keeps hitting, the Rockies as a team are striking out 23.9 percent of the time with a wRC+ of 72 over the last seven days. Thor has the highest swinging strike rate on the slate at 16.3 percent combined with a K/9 of 11.04, which is almost video game like. He has continued to be dominant against tough opponents, in his last two starts versus the Cubs on the road and mighty Cardinals at home he has a 1.54 ERA with 16 strikeouts over 11 2/3 innings. If he can man-handle two of the top offenses in the N.L., I see no way he does not do the same to Colorado. Vegas also agrees as Thor is a -193 favorite in this one to go along with the low 7.0 expected run total. If it looks like this one plays, no way you pass. If the rain stays, and it looks like delays, stay away for another day. That is my saying.

Danger Zone

We have very little BVP wise here to look at. The current Rockies are batting .227 (5-for-22) with two HR (DJ LeMahieu and Nolan Arenado), three RBI, and three strikeouts. Weather is the only danger here.

Carlos Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals

So who is my back up today for Thor? Carlos Martinez that’s who. Today Martinez is facing the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park which is 23^rd in runs scored in MLB, so park shift is more than favorable. He is also a slight -116 favorite and this game has an expected run total of 8.0. The Marlins are striking out 18.7 percent of the time with a low .315 wOBA versus RHP. At home the Marlins are 26^th in MLB in wOBA at .306 and have a low wRC+ of 88. Martinez in his last three starts has allowed two earned runs or less with 19 strikeouts over his last 17 innings pitched. He has a better road ERA at 1.89 and plenty of strikeout upside to go with the run support behind him to help get the win on FanDuel. RHB only have a .216 wOBA versus Martinez and to be honest I find all the scary bats in the Marlins line up to be righties. I am all in on Martinez today on all sites.

Danger Zone

The BVP here looks uglier than it is. The current Marlins are batting .328 (19-for-58) with one HR (Giancarlo Stanton), eight RBI, and 15 strikeouts. As you can see he gets hit but without a lot of pop. On FD this is fine, on DK you can lose a few points from this. He has however displayed over a 25-percent strikeout rate so far versus these hitters which spells money no matter where you play.

Before you read the next one I want to touch really quick on Corey Kluber. He has looked incredible as of late. I mean really good. He is facing a team that seems to have little pop in the Athletics. I just want to go on the record of saying that by the numbers he is a better option here. I myself am avoiding him today and here is the reason, much like the Royals, the Athletics have a lineup with several players who actually strikeout less than 15 percent of the time versus RHP. Although he will get punch outs today, this often can lead to higher pitch counts do to the number of foul balls and deep counts from these feisty hitters. This can leave you with a possible shortened outing or early pull with an elevated pitch count at the first sign of trouble. I would not blame anyone for using him and most will today.

Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays

Although the park shift is less than favorable I often find it ok in some cases to take the pitchers that do well there. You know, the Johnny Cueto type who can put up great outings in bad parks (when he was in Cincinnati). Well, Aaron Sanchez is that type as well. He has allowed only three earned runs in his last three starts at the Rogers Centre versus the Tigers, Padres, and Royals. Today he faces the Baltimore Orioles. This last sentence alone will scare most people off but if you dig a little this is the time to attack them. The Orioles are striking out 22.3 percent of the time versus RHP and over the last seven days are batting a pathetic .206 (29^th in MLB) with a low wRC+ of 63. Sanchez is also a -165 favorite today pitching in a game with a low for the Rogers Centre expected run total of 8.5. You have a red hot pitcher facing an ice cold team in this matchup which I always find inviting.

Danger Zone

We have some ugly BVP here. The current Orioles are batting .261 (24-for-92) with six HR (Chris Davis (3), Pedro Alvarez, Adam Jones, and Matt Wieters), 13 RBI, and 20 strikeouts. As you can see Chris Davis will be a popular DFS play today I will be avoiding. He is in a miserable slump which either means he goes 0-for-4, or hits two HR because he is due. I would have more faith in David Ortiz in this situation than I do Davis. He just strikes out so much. Oh, I am a pitching coach.

Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays

OK, so the Yankees were not as dumb as I hoped yesterday and stacked their LHB using the splits. Good job guys. Even though it was still kind of a dud. I actually did quite well in the $4 slurve last night on DK using the Nathan Eovaldi-Drew Smyly combo together. Not great, but I will take 5X anytime.

Today Blake Snell is a slight -102 favorite pitching in a game with a low expected run total of 7.0. He gets a great park shift at home in Tropicana Field which is 25^th in runs scored in MLB. The Yankees although only striking out 17.4 percent of the time versus LHP have a low .301 wOBA (27^th in MLB) to go with it and wRC+ of 85. On the road the Bronx Bombers also struggle coming in 28^th in wOBA at .293. Over the last seven days they are in a bit of a funk as well batting .241 with a wRC+ of 65. The last time Snell faced the Yankees in Yankee stadium back in April he had six strikeouts over five innings allowing only one earned run. He has a more than affordable price tag across the industry and makes a great safer option to pair with a stud on a two-pitcher site or to try and save a few bucks on FD.

Danger Zone

As mentioned he dominated the Yankees in his only start versus them. The one thing I find concerning is his ERA is only 3.05 but his xFIP is a much higher at 4.51. The thing is, I would take this more to heart on the road in a bad park than at home facing a bad Yankees team in a great park.

Carlos Rodon, Chicago White Sox (Weather Concerns!)

This one is a GPP only play today. I used to be real high on Carlos Rodon. I actually drafted him in dynasty leagues, seasonal leagues, pretty much, all of them. I own him right now on zero teams. That is right, I dropped him. Good bye! See ya later! I had enough. But, he does have K upside and is dirt cheap on DraftKings today.

Carlos Rodon coming back from injury today is facing the Twins at Target Field so he gets a neutral park shift. The Twins are striking out 22.3 percent of the time versus LHP with a wOBA of .333. At home it drops to .318 and they are batting .257 over the last seven days. The truth is, this play is about price versus possible upside. The Twins are the type of team that comes out and either mashes a team or absolutely gets shut down. Rodon has a nice 8.9 K/9 and in a $3 Squeeze or $3 Moonshot, I am most definitely going to have at least one lineup with him in it today.

Danger Zone

OK, first off RHB have a .377 wOBA versus Rodon. I find this scarier than my wife when she does not get enough sleep. Otherwise I like the BVP with the current Twins batting .239 (16-for-67) with three HR (Miguel Sano, Robbie Grossman, and Brian Dozier), six RBI, and 17 strikeouts.

Night Slate

Ouch, that is all I have to say. Here is the strategy I employ on a small slate where I believe every pitcher on the board is likely to get his ass kicked. I choose the guys with the highest strikeout upside. Why? Because if every pitcher gets tuned up a bit the only thing that is going to separate them is the number of strikeouts. At least on FD. On DK, strikeouts still pay. I would avoid cash games on this slate and play some GPPs for low dollar amounts.

Bud Norris, Los Angeles Dodgers (Please…punch me in the face)

Wow, it has come to this. Armageddon is here. It is raining frogs and the Four Horseman have set forth to destroy the world. Bud Norris is the best option on the night slate and Donald Trump may be the second celebrity to take the White House. (I have no political views just to be clear). That is where we are at? Think about it.

Tonight Bud Norris is at home in Dodger Stadium which is 30^th in runs scored in MLB so the park shift cannot get any better. He is also a -195 favorite pitching in a game with an expected run total of 8.5. The Diamondbacks are striking out 22.9 percent of the time with a .322 wOBA versus RHP. On the road it elevates slightly to .328 and they are batting .268 over the last seven days. Norris is a GB pitcher (52.7 percent GB rate) with a K/9 of 7.68 which is among the highest on the slate. The thing that really stands out to me in this is that RHB have a .259 wOBA versus Norris. In case you have not noticed David Peralta although banged up has not been all that great this season and Michael Bourn is still Michael Bourn. This means outside of Jake Lamb, and of course Paul Goldschmidt regardless of matchup, it could be quite smooth sailing in what I believe will be a real low scoring game. I would get into how good Norris has been lately but he has been absolutely abysmal allowing 11 earned runs in his last 17 2/3 innings. He is right in line with all the rest of the crap going tonight.

Danger Zone

Well speaking of Jake Lamb, David Peralta, and Michael Bourn, LHB have a whopping .385 wOBA versus Norris. We have another case of BVP that looks way worse than it is. The current Diamondbacks are batting .286 (20-for-70) with one HR (Rickie Weeks of all people), 12 RBI, and 20 strikeouts. This means we have lots of singles and strikeouts. That is half of what we want on DK and perfect on FD at home in Los Angeles.

Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals

Gio? Yup, like I said, the Four Horseman. Or in my Pitching Coach Articles case, the Three Horseman of the night slate.

Tonight Gio is out in beautiful San Francisco facing the Giants in AT&T Park which is 30^th in MLB in HR allowed, which certainly helps out Gio, who is known to give up a few. Although the Giants are only striking out 18.8 percent of time versus LHP, they only have a .312 wOBA at home, and low .243 batting average over the last seven days. Gio, in his last two starts has looked stellar versus the Dodgers at home, and Indians on the road, allowing three earned runs over 12 1/3 innings with 10 strikeouts. He has a decent 8.87 K/9 and keeps the ball on the ground 49.4 percent of the time. Although the Giants seem scary, as of late they are struggling to score runs (they have scored nine runs in their last four games) making this the perfect time to attack them at home.

Danger Zone

RHB have a .331 wOBA versus Gio and the Giants certainly got a few good ones. The current Giants are batting .250 (24-for-96) with two HR (Brandon Crawford and Buster Posey), 12 RBI, and 10 strikeouts. On a slate where everyone will likely get bombed, I will take these numbers.

Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks

Yup, the Third Horseman. Patrick Corbin. This section is all boom or bust today my friends. Like I said, this is not a cash game slate. This is a Patrick Corbin slate. He gets the same great park shift going from Arizona to Los Angeles that Norris gets at home. The Dodgers are 30^th in MLB in wOBA versus LHP with a low wRC+ of 78 (and believe me, I am sad about this). At home the Dodgers are 25^th in wOBA in MLB and are batting .247 over the last seven days. Corbin has been terrible. How bad? Don’t bother looking, Bud Norris bad. He has allowed 13 runs in his last 14 2/3 innings. Here is the thing, in these three starts, two were at home versus the same Dodgers and lefty mashing Blue Jays, the other, in Milwaukee which by no means is a pitcher’s park, and the Brewers hit LHP. In these 14 2/3 innings he has 17 strikeouts. You take away the bad ball parks and put him in Dodger Stadium facing the worst team in MLB versus LHP and you just might strike gold.

Danger Zone

Terrible, LHB, RHB, the guy selling popcorn probably has an RBI or base hit versus him. Just throw a few dollars down and close your eyes.

Most players are going to go to Felix Hernandez today versus the Cubs at Wrigley. The ball park is right, the matchup is bad, and his opponent on the mound is terrible. I believe Felix will continue to get beat up and should be rested for next season at this point, or, should have at least been nursed back a little sooner. His recent bad performance is a result of MLB teams rushing back players when they clearly needed a little more time to get healthy. Now he faces the Cubs? Who mash everyone. Why spend up for this when you can get mashed for much cheaper with Norris or the merriment of other scrubs on this horrible night slate.

I know that a few players are not showing on the spreadsheet and we have some zeros where there should not be. This was out of my control.

Good luck today.

Follow me on Twitter @RealJerryColvin or email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.com

I also have an EBay store with some fine sports cards in it, this is the URL:  http://stores.ebay.com/jerrysgemmints/

Off to the woods I go, hopefully I will not run into Kristaps Porzingis or one of his Keebler assassins. Coming soon.