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Howard Bender will be off today and back tomorrow. He is still off Phishing. How much of it he will remember? That is debatable. We do know how to get down at Fantasy Alarm, we are not just a bunch of stuffed shirts. I mean, you ever listen to Jeff Mans? Mic drop, I’m gone.
This is one of those days where I got up, poured my coffee, turned on my laptop, looked at the slate, and wanted to pour my coffee back in the pot and head back to bed. What a crappy slate for pitching. Terrible is more like it. Then I saw a light in the darkness, I noticed Anthony DeSclafani was facing the Atlanta Braves today. I have to admit, I had a George from Seinfeld moment where it clearly moved. And then I noticed that unless you are playing the all-day slate on FanDuel, you will have no access to this game. The last time I was this let down involved a girl and a bag of vomit in the back seat of my 1984 Chrysler Le Baron. So what do we take away from this? Play light today.
The pitching situation is volatile, we have a Coors Field game, and Toronto playing in Arizona. All this tells me to avoid cash games, play a few GPPs for good measure (splitting my action between the two slates), and take a few chances to try and separate myself from the pack with limited safer options available. I also plan on fading Coors Field today, at least the Rockies side. Why pay for those bats with the possibility of so many others in great matchups going off today. That is my strategy.
So with a steaming pile of doggy poo to sift through, I bring you today's Pitching Coach Article.
The Real Jerry Colvin amateur Weather Report
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OK, so I am not a real weather man. I simply go the National Weather Forecast and spend a few minutes looking over the map. I check for rain location, temperatures, and dew points. Focusing on the areas where there will be MLB. It is just scratching 4 a.m. as I write this so please understand that the weather changes. Quickly at times. I would only use my forecast for a quick glance to make myself aware of where baseballs can fly or die and weather could kill your night. Just understand, I am not doing anything here that no one else could do but glance at a weather page. I am doing this just as a courtesy to provide the best content possible while trying to give you the heads up for your day. Weather is more important when it comes to pitching than hitting. Fact.
Today’s Forecast
The coolest baseball spot in the country that I can see should be in the Oakland area, the highs in Northern California are barely scratching 70 degrees today. The highs along the rest of the West Coast are ranging from the high-60’s to high-70’s, with the higher temps falling in the southern end of the region. Once you pass into Nevada the whole map, from top to bottom all the way along the coast through Texas, through the entire Midwest and ending just shy of the Northeast, is going to be scorching hot and quite humid as well. We actually have heat advisories through most of the country today. Highs in the Northeast are going to be in the mid-80’s today and let me tell you, it is beautiful here in Western Massachusetts right now (it is pushing 5 a.m.). We've got some thunderstorm warnings and green blotches on the map scattered throughout the nation, but nothing I see right now that looks like it should hamper MLB action.
Want MLB weather dates? Tune into the Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio from 4-to-6 p.m. Monday-Friday, hosted by Jeff Mans and Ted Schuster. Also, follow our weather updates on Twitter @MLBDailyWeather.
Day Slate
Even when I land a weekday gig I still manage to inherit a split-slate. I am not going to lie, although I have four options available for you today on this early pile of you-know-what, there really is only three. The fourth is a longshot. I will get to that later. Just keep in mind that with it being so hot and muggy through the nation, baseballs are going to fly and most of these games are taking place during the peak temps of the day. Dominant performances could be few and far between.
Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
Despite coming back from the DL, King Felix is still the top option for me. He gets a great park shift today pitching at home in Safeco Field which is 21st in runs scored in MLB. He is also a -175 favorite pitching in a game with an expected run total of 8.0. Although they play inside, the temps are only going to be in the high-70’s in Seattle today which is a huge difference from the rest of the pack. The Chicago White Sox are striking out 20.7 percent of the time with a .309 wOBA (25th in MLB) and wRC+ of 89 versus RHP. The numbers do not change much on the road but over the last 14 days they are only batting .239 with a wRC+ of 59 (among the lowest I have seen). Felix looked good in his last rehab start and prior to going on the DL he was on a roll posting a 2.83 home ERA and 7.57 K/9 on the season. He offers strikeout upside in good pitcher’s park, he is facing a bad team, and gets my call as the top play of the afternoon.
Danger Zone
We have a decent sample of BVP here with the White Sox batting .239 (38-for-159) with two HR (Justin Morneau and Brett Lawrie), 15 RBI, and 35 strikeouts versus King Felix. The other concern is the huge difference between his ERA at 2.86 and his xFIP at 4.14. Versus better teams I might be a little more worried about it, but the whole coming back from the DL thing is my biggest concern.
Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs
For the price today on FanDuel at home I am going to roll out a lineup with Kyle Hendricks in it. Today he faces the Mets at home in Wrigley Field which is 28th in runs scored in MLB. The Mets are striking out 22 percent of the time with a low .314 wOBA versus RHP on the season. On the road the wOBA is stable at .315 but they are ice cold batting .213 over the last 14 days. Here is the peculiar thing, even though the Mets have a low .213 batting average over the last two weeks, they have a wRC+ of 94. This is where saber-metrics can be confusing because you have one offensive number telling one thing, and another telling you a completely different. This from what I can analyze means that although the Mets are not getting a lot of singles and such, they are finding ways on base and taking advantage of it. Whether it be by a HR, or timely single, they are maintaining a low avg. but scoring some runs.
Hendricks has been more than incredible as of late not allowing an earned run in two straight starts. Yep, that is two starts, no runs allowed. The negative, in these two starts he has a whopping five strikeouts in 11 1/3 innings. With the lack of strikeouts, he falls below the King and above the rest in this sweet matchup at home. I find him much more viable on FanDuel for $9,000 and would rather roll with Felix for $100 less on DraftKings.
Danger Zone
Hendricks has fared well versus the Mets in a small sample size. The Mets are batting .225 (9-for-40) with one HR (Lucas Duda), two RBI, and seven strikeouts versus Hendricks. He does have the same problem with ERA being 2.41 and xFIP sitting at 3.72 which means he may have been lucky. But for a half of season? That is a lot of luck.
The next two plays are GPP only or to be used as a possible pitcher to pair with one of the two players above on a two-pitcher site. They both are volatile, just one more than the other.
Ian Kennedy, Kansas City Royals
I am not a huge fan of Ian Kennedy. The truth is he looks like Nolan Ryan compared to the rest of the options for the most part. Today he is home at Kauffman Stadium which is third in runs scored in MLB but 20th in HR allowed, this mean he gets a neutral park shift. He is also a +139 underdog pitching in a game with an expected run total of 8.5. Today he faces the Indians who are striking out 19.5 percent of the time with a high .344 wOBA versus RHP on the season. On the road though the wOBA dips a lot dropping to .308 but they are however batting .286 over the last 14 days which is fourth in MLB. I am not a huge Kennedy fan (I like the band the Dead Kennedys though) but you have to admit, he has looked good in KC. Over his last six starts he has been dominant and in his last two versus the Blue Jays and Tigers on the road he has only surrendered three earned runs over 11 1/3 innings while fanning 13 batters. His home ERA is only 2.11, he has a K/9 of 9.09, and for the price across the industry is my favorite complimentary pitcher on a two-pitcher site and safer GPP play on FanDuel.
Danger Zone
We have quite a bit of BVP here with the Indians batting .248 (34-for-137) with six HR (Marlon Byrd (who I cannot believe is factored in here (2), Rajai Davis, Chris Gimenez, Mike Napoli, and Tyler Naquin), 21 RBI, and 32 strikeouts versus Kennedy. He is also a fly ball pitcher and it is going to be super-hot and muggy in Kansas City today.
Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays (DK only)
What does Lucas Harrell, Patrick Corbin, Miguel Gonzalez, Jorge De La Rosa, and Chris Archer have in common? They are all dirt cheap on DraftKings today. Now, step back, and take a look. If you had a seasonal team, or had to pick one player today in a GPP, who it would be? Corbin versus the Blue Jays in Arizona? No way. How about I propose this, Chris Archer is the best play for the price. All of these guys are all in spots to have horrible games. Why not take a shot on the guy who up till recently had a great track record and has an incredible K/9 of 10.43. For god sakes, Chris Archer is only $5,700 on DK, Coors Field, or not, that is way too cheap for a player who although unlikely could turn it around, could dominate as well. He has the stuff. Although the Rockies have the No. 1 offense at home, they still can be shut down.
The Rockies are striking out 19.9 percent of the time with a whopping .350 wOBA versus RHP on the season. At home they have a .393 wOBA (I know…crazy right?). Archer has been anything but good as of late giving up nine earned runs in his last two starts versus the Red Sox at home and Orioles on the road. He does however have 19 strikeouts over his last 19 innings pitched so he still has that swing and miss stuff. He also has a 4.68 ERA versus a 3.64 xFIP which suggest he has been unlucky, real unlucky.
Danger Zone
The Rockies, Coors Field, recent performance, and did I mention Coors Field?
In case you are wondering why I did not elect Carlos Carrasco it is simple. Although he has had some success versus the Royals they have the ability to work pitchers deep into counts and there is nothing worse in DFS than seeing your SP has thrown 67 pitches in the third inning. They do not strikeout a lot, and for the price, I believe you can get the same fantasy points out of Kennedy today you will get from Carrasco, and neither is guaranteed a win.
| Player | Tm | H | Opp | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BAA | SwStr% | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | BABIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA v L | wOBA v R | $FD | $DK | $Aces |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | R | CWS | 63 | 7.57 | 3.71 | 0.86 | .217 | 10.0% | 2.86 | 4.14 | 1.22 | .254 | 56.7% | 21.1% | 2.68 | 0.297 | 0.282 | $10,300 | $10,100 | $6,950 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | R | KC | 79.2 | 8.47 | 2.37 | 1.36 | .220 | 12.5% | 2.49 | 3.42 | 1.07 | .251 | 53.0% | 30.0% | 1.77 | 0.298 | 0.289 | $10,000 | $10,400 | $6,600 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | R | MIN | 124.1 | 9.41 | 2.53 | 1.16 | .227 | 13.5% | 3.91 | 3.73 | 1.12 | .271 | 38.0% | 41.9% | 0.91 | 0.283 | 0.313 | $9,600 | $11,000 | $6,700 |
| Kyle Hendricks | CHI | R | NYM | 104.2 | 7.65 | 2.32 | 0.69 | .205 | 9.4% | 2.41 | 3.72 | 1.02 | .240 | 55.2% | 28.5% | 1.94 | 0.280 | 0.243 | $9,000 | $10,200 | $6,200 |
| Ian Kennedy | KC | R | CLE | 105 | 9.09 | 3 | 1.89 | .228 | 10.8% | 3.86 | 4.08 | 1.19 | .254 | 36.4% | 45.9% | 0.79 | 0.322 | 0.316 | $8,200 | $8,100 | $6,300 |
| Chris Archer | TB | R | COL | 117.1 | 10.43 | 3.76 | 1.53 | .255 | 12.9% | 4.68 | 3.64 | 1.42 | .312 | 45.4% | 31.8% | 1.43 | 0.379 | 0.334 | $7,800 | $5,700 | $6,300 |
| Doug Fister | HOU | R | OAK | 111.1 | 5.58 | 3.07 | 1.21 | .242 | 6.4% | 3.64 | 4.57 | 1.25 | .257 | 50.0% | 31.6% | 1.58 | 0.335 | 0.352 | $7,800 | $7,700 | $6,200 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | R | ATL | 42.1 | 7.87 | 1.7 | 0.85 | .282 | 10.3% | 2.55 | 3.86 | 1.25 | .331 | 45.1% | 33.6% | 1.34 | 0.381 | 0.251 | $7,800 | $9,700 | $5,900 |
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | R | CHI | 104.1 | 5.95 | 1.64 | 1.12 | .266 | 6.1% | 3.11 | 4.18 | 1.21 | .286 | 46.2% | 30.5% | 1.51 | 0.332 | 0.283 | $7,300 | $7,100 | $6,100 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | R | ARI | 120.2 | 6.56 | 2.54 | 1.04 | .274 | 9.4% | 5.15 | 3.83 | 1.36 | .309 | 61.6% | 17.2% | 3.58 | 0.356 | 0.309 | $7,100 | $7,600 | $6,150 |
| Daniel Mengden | OAK | R | HOU | 39 | 9 | 4.15 | 0.92 | .263 | 10.4% | 5.54 | 4.44 | 1.49 | .319 | 44.3% | 29.6% | 1.5 | 0.357 | 0.296 | $6,700 | $7,800 | $5,400 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | R | DET | 98.1 | 6.68 | 2.47 | 1.01 | .266 | 9.9% | 4.12 | 4.21 | 1.3 | .296 | 45.1% | 33.3% | 1.35 | 0.291 | 0.340 | $6,600 | $7,400 | $5,850 |
| Jorge De La Rosa | COL | L | TB | 68.2 | 7.87 | 4.06 | 1.57 | .281 | 11.9% | 5.51 | 4.46 | 1.57 | .318 | 51.2% | 28.0% | 1.83 | 0.357 | 0.368 | $6600 | $6000 | $5700 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CWS | R | SEA | 75.2 | 6.78 | 3.21 | 0.83 | .260 | 9.6% | 4.4 | 4.54 | 1.36 | .294 | 46.1% | 31.3% | 1.47 | 0.296 | 0.317 | $6,400 | $0 | $5,850 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | L | TOR | 109.2 | 6.73 | 3.61 | 1.56 | .282 | 9.6% | 5.25 | 4.41 | 1.51 | .304 | 54.8% | 23.9% | 2.3 | 0.385 | 0.353 | $6,200 | $4,900 | $5,650 |
| Lucas Harrell | ATL | R | CIN | 17.1 | 7.27 | 3.12 | 0.00 | .226 | 10.0% | 3.64 | 4.38 | 1.15 | .275 | 50.0% | 28.0% | 1.79 | 0.243 | 0.327 | $5,900 | $5,400 | $5,650 |
Night Slate
Wow, if you thought the day slate was bad, then take a good look at the night slate. Salary should not be a problem tonight with all the viable starting pitching fairly inexpensive.
Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals
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You were expecting Drew Pomeranz? Nope, sorry, a LHP in Fenway Park facing a Giants team that historically hits LHP well is not my cup of tea today. The downer, I have to once again pick on, you guessed it, the Dodgers. Today Gio gets a positive park shift pitching at home in Nationals Park which is 20th in runs scored in MLB. The Dodgers strikeout 20.5 percent of the time and are 29th in MLB in both wOBA at .291 and wRC+ at 82 versus LHP. On the road my beloved boys in blue hit a little better with a .330 wOBA, which I doubt plays in this park. Meanwhile, with little to choose from Gio Gonzalez becomes a superstar tonight for the price. He has a K/9 or 9.0, a 50-percent ground ball rate, and 4.70 ERA versus his 3.98 xFIP. Over his last two starts he has a 3.86 ERA with seven strikeouts over 11 2/3 innings versus the Brewers at home and Mets on the road (both which are tougher on LHP than the Dodgers). This may not look like much but in this matchup I expect better numbers and facing Bud Norris, a win as well.
Danger Zone
The Dodgers right now are the hottest hitting team in MLB. Over the last 14 days they have a .309 batting average and wRC+ of 142, which is quite scary. We also have some BVP here and it is beautiful with the Dodgers batting .151 (16-for-106) with no HR, eight RBI, and 27 strikeouts versus Gio.
Wei-Yin Chen, Miami Marlins
The other pitcher I am hot on tonight is Wei-Yin Chen. Write this down because it probably will not happen again before Hailey’s Comet comes back. He gets the best possible park shift pitching at Citizens Bank Park tonight which is 30th in MLB in runs scored and is a -132 favorite pitching in a game with an expected run total of 8.0. The Phillies are the worst team in MLB versus LHP with a wOBA of .276 and wRC+ of 67, to top it off, they strike out 23.6 percent of the time as well. At home they also are the worst offensive team in MLB coming in at 30th again in both wOBA at .272 and wRC+ of 66. The point here is the Phillies much like the Dodgers cannot hit LHP. They just happen to make the Dodgers look good at it. Over Chens last two starts versus the both the Cardinals and Mets on the road he has a 3.46 ERA with 10 strikeouts over 13 innings. Much like Gio’s numbers this may not look like much, but trust me, on this slate, this is awesome. He is the guy on a two-pitcher site I am pairing with Gonzalez and will have some exposure to him on FanDuel.
Danger Zone
The BVP is less than favorable with the Phillies batting .308 (20-for-65) with two HR (Maikel Franco and Tommy Joseph), six RBI, and 11 strikeouts versus Chen. RHB have a .338 wOBA versus Chen which certainly opens the door for a Phillies stack, and the chance they make cheese steak out of him. Which Bartolo Colon is not around to eat.
Both of these plays below are riskier and better for GPP play.
Jeff Locke, Pittsburgh Pirates
This could be the Locke of the night. Jeff Locke is like a tale of two cities. There is the home version and away version. At home, he is absolutely dominant, and dirt cheap. I do not usually like to attack the Brewers versus LHP but I am making an exception today. The Brewers are striking out 24.2 percent of the time with a .324 wOBA and wRC+ of 95 versus LHP. On the road they dip severely with a .302 wOBA. Over the last 14 days the Brewers are only batting .212 (29th in MLB) with a wRC+ of 59 (30th in MLB) and are striking out 27.7 percent of the time. Can you see a better time to attack them with a scrub pitcher than now? Locke gets a great park shift at home in PNC Park which is 27th in HR allowed in MLB. He is also the -156 favorite and this game has an expected run total of 8.5. At home Jeff Locke has an ERA of 2.81 as opposed to his DFS friendly for hitters 7.47 road ERA. He does not offer a ton of strikeout upside but if he is going to have a higher than normal strikeout rate, it will be today. In his last three home starts versus the Giants, Dodgers, and Cubs, he has allowed only one earned run. I am all in on Locke tonight.
Danger Zone
RHB have a .366 wOBA versus Locke which makes the Ryan Braun types rather scary. We got some not so great BVP here with the Brewers batting .301 (29-for-93) with three HR (Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy, and Will Middlebrooks), 14 RBI, and 19 strikeouts versus the “Locke-ness” monster.
One player who just missed today and I am on the ropes and unable to commit to is Jeremy Hellickson. He is home and gets the same great park shift as Chen and faces a Marlins team batting .248 over the last 14 days with a wRC+ of 85. With this warmer weather the power hitters like Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna scare me, even RHB on RHP. If by some chance when lineups come out one of these guys sits with seven or more RHB in the lineup, I will probably jump on board. If there is a Stanton and Ozuna, I am out.
| Player | Tm | H | Opp | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BAA | SwStr% | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | BABIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA v L | wOBA v R | $FD | $DK | $Aces |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | L | SF | 102 | 10.14 | 3.44 | 0.71 | .184 | 12.1% | 2.47 | 3.38 | 1.06 | .237 | 49.8% | 35.2% | 1.42 | 0.262 | 0.244 | $10,500 | $10,600 | $6,800 |
| Hector Santiago | LAA | L | TEX | 105.1 | 7.95 | 3.76 | 1.45 | .231 | 10.8% | 4.27 | 4.4 | 1.27 | .253 | 42.0% | 44.4% | 0.95 | 0.298 | 0.324 | $8,800 | $8,000 | $5,950 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | MIA | L | PHI | 104.2 | 7.23 | 1.98 | 1.63 | .266 | 10.3% | 4.9 | 4.2 | 1.26 | .286 | 39.6% | 37.2% | 1.07 | 0.275 | 0.338 | $8,400 | $6,800 | $5,850 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WSH | L | LA | 103.1 | 9.05 | 3.31 | 1.13 | .266 | 10.6% | 4.7 | 3.95 | 1.4 | .315 | 50.0% | 28.3% | 1.76 | 0.323 | 0.343 | $8,400 | $7,300 | $6,450 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | L | SD | 107.1 | 7.46 | 3.02 | 0.84 | .260 | 9.5% | 4.11 | 3.86 | 1.36 | .305 | 60.6% | 21.5% | 2.81 | 0.283 | 0.319 | $8,000 | $7,900 | $6,450 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | R | BAL | 100.1 | 10.67 | 2.42 | 1.61 | .273 | 14.9% | 5.56 | 3.26 | 1.37 | .338 | 45.6% | 31.0% | 1.47 | 0.350 | 0.246 | $7,800 | $6,400 | $5,900 |
| Bud Norris | LA | R | WSH | 70.1 | 7.68 | 3.45 | 0.77 | .257 | 10.3% | 4.22 | 4.15 | 1.37 | .298 | 52.7% | 21.0% | 2.51 | 0.376 | 0.256 | $7,000 | $6,100 | $5,900 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | R | MIA | 111.2 | 7.9 | 2.18 | 1.45 | .252 | 12.2% | 4.03 | 3.9 | 1.2 | .280 | 44.2% | 30.5% | 1.45 | 0.357 | 0.306 | $6,900 | $7,500 | $5,900 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | L | LAA | 113.1 | 4.21 | 3.81 | 0.87 | .266 | 7.5% | 4.05 | 5.02 | 1.42 | .270 | 56.3% | 23.0% | 2.45 | 0.249 | 0.343 | $6,700 | $4,000 | $5,750 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | L | MIL | 101 | 4.73 | 2.67 | 1.25 | .282 | 9.0% | 5.26 | 4.82 | 1.42 | .290 | 49.6% | 29.0% | 1.71 | 0.320 | 0.366 | $6,400 | $5,600 | $5,850 |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | R | NYY | 48.1 | 5.96 | 5.03 | 1.12 | .305 | 6.6% | 5.77 | 5.41 | 1.76 | .327 | 42.7% | 35.7% | 1.2 | 0.413 | 0.339 | $6,400 | $4,400 | $5,750 |
| Matt Cain | SF | R | BOS | 57.1 | 6.44 | 2.67 | 1.26 | .308 | 9.1% | 5.34 | 4.77 | 1.52 | .323 | 40.1% | 36.4% | 1.1 | 0.395 | 0.337 | $6,300 | $4,000 | $5,700 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | R | PIT | 86 | 7.01 | 3.45 | 1.88 | .266 | 9.3% | 5.44 | 4.85 | 1.42 | .275 | 38.4% | 38.8% | 0.99 | 0.289 | 0.428 | $6,000 | $4,800 | $5,700 |
| Paul Clemens | SD | R | STL | 10 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 4.5 | .289 | 5.5% | 6.3 | 6.49 | 1.9 | .222 | 41.9% | 45.2% | 0.93 | 0.416 | 0.467 | $5,000 | $0 | $5,500 |
That is all I got guys. Split your bankroll today and try and have some fun. If I was to give you any more plays, I would be a fraud. Because, I would not use them. My rule is, if they are in this article, I have them somewhere. Good luck today and tonight. I am in no way implying others do not play theirs.
Follow me on Twitter @RealJerryColvin or email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.com
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