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Hopefully everyone enjoyed the All-Star break, I can tell you now that this guy certainly did. I did not play any DFS. Not a drop. Every time there was a big hit during the game I would grab my phone to check it without a thought. I hope all of you managed to spend some time with your families and enjoy life outside of DFS a bit. I play every sport minus hockey and golf so the breaks are few and far between. Enjoy them.
We have our usual split slate today with most of the action starting tonight. We do not have any huge stud on the mound today which certainly will make roster construction that much easier. That also means the amount of risk today we will be forced to take is much greater. Sometimes in DFS you have to accept that once in awhile you are going to have to take a pitcher who may let up a few runs, try as we may to find the guy who will allow none. Today is more than likely going to be one of those days. This is where you hone in on strikeouts and attack.
So with a successful Friday night in DFS behind me, a sleeping wife, no kids in the house, and a fresh cup of coffee, I bring you today’s Pitching Coach Article.
The Real Jerry Colvin amateur Weather Report
OK, so I am not a real weather man. I simply go the National Weather Forecast and spend a few minutes looking over the map. I check for rain location, temperatures, and dew points. Focusing on the areas where there will be MLB. It is just scratching 4 a.m. as I write this so please understand that the weather changes. Quickly at times. I would only use my forecast for a quick glance to make myself aware of where baseballs can fly or die and weather could kill your night. Just understand, I am not doing anything here that no one else could do but glance at a weather page. I am doing this just as a courtesy to provide the best content possible while trying to give you the heads up for your day. Weather is more important when it comes to pitching than hitting. Fact.
All I can think of is that song that goes "something, something, hot, hot, hot." From Texas along the coast all the way up to the Northeast is going to be scorching today. How hot? Here in Massachusetts it is going to be in the 90’s. It is also extremely muggy, trust me, I am sitting in it. Temperatures in the Midwest should stay somewhere in the 80’s. We do have precipitation in a few locations but for the most part we lucked out with them being where domed stadiums exist. Along the East Coast from Florida up to the Virginias we have lots of green, so keep a close eye on that. The West Coast is going to be gorgeous with highs in the 70’s and I see no weather issues there whatsoever. Once again, I am not real weather man but I did eat a chicken parmesan dinner last night.
Day Slate
There is no easy way to say this. This slate stinks for SP. For some reason, even though I have pricing for Yu Darvish I cannot find any GPP’s on DraftKings with the Rangers-Cubs game in it. So I am assuming at this early hour they have either not added the game yet, or, it is only available in leagues, double-ups, and head-to-heads. None of which I will be playing on this ugly slate that is best left for GPP play only.
Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles
Anytime you read a DFS article and Chris Tillman is the top pitching option on the slate you should play light and only GPPs. Today, Tillman gets a positive park shift pitching at Tropicana Field which is 24th in runs scored in MLB. He is also a -120 favorite and this game has a lower expected run total of 8.0. The Rays are striking out a whopping 25.5 percent of the time (second in MLB) with a .319 wOBA versus RHP on the season. At home the wOBA drops to .306 which I do find particularly scary, kidding. Tillman in his last two starts versus the Angels at home and Dodgers on the road has only allowed two earned runs over 14 innings. The problem is, he only has seven strikeouts in the same 14 innings. In his last start versus the Rays he got touched up, allowing six earned runs over five innings at home which could scare some people off. The thing is, in his last start at Tropicana Field he went 6 2/3 innings while striking out nine batters and allowing no earned runs. On DK he is absolutely a rip off which could keep ownership low while on FD he is the top play regardless of contest selection.
Danger Zone
Chris Tillman historically has fared well versus the Rays and we have plenty of BVP here. The Rays are batting .236 (51-for-216) with nine HR (Evan Longoria (7) ouch, Steven Souza Jr, and Hank Conger), 25 RBI, and 48 strikeouts off of Tillman. That is good enough for me.
R.A. Dickey, Toronto Blue Jays
Someone please punch me in the mouth. I cannot believe I am going to run a lineup with R.A. Dickey today. The reality is, he is a good play. You see, if I am going to use a pitcher like Dickey, who does not strike out a ton of batters (6.40 K/9 on the season), it seems prudent to do so versus a team like the A’s who do not strike out a lot. The Oakland A's are striking out a measly 18.9 percent of the time with a .310 wOBA versus RHP. At home the A’s struggle versus everyone and the .300 wOBA (27th in MLB) shows it. Dickey gets a positive park shift with the Coliseum being 26th in MLB in runs scored and he is the -120 favorite. Over his last two starts versus the tough Tigers and Royals at home he has only allowed three earned runs over 14 innings while fanning 13 batters. Historically, Dickey has pitched well versus Oakland and I see no reason this should not continue today.
Danger Zone
Plenty of BVP here as well. The A's are batting .234 (32-for-137) with two HR (Danny Valencia), 12 RBI, and 30 strikeouts versus Dickey. The real danger is that knuckleball. If it is moving good Dickey will have a great day. If not, disaster.
Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays
The Orioles used to strike fear into me when using a LHP versus them. Not so much this year. The Baltimore Orioles are striking out 22.8 percent of the time with a subpar .315 wOBA versus LHP on the season. The problem is, on the road they have a .331 wOBA and were swinging a decent bat heading into the break. Moore does, however, benefit from the same positive park shift at home that Tillman gets on the road and his ERA shows it. He has a 3.57 ERA at home versus his 5.93 ERA on the road. This is a huge split and one which you should take notice of. He also is getting better as the season goes on. Over his last 12 starts he has a 4.21 ERA, over his last six starts it is 2.52, and over the last three his ERA is down to 1.83. He has a nice 8.01 K/9 that can spell DFS gold or disaster today and makes a great GPP play.
Danger Zone
The Orioles are batting .275 (50-for-182) with nine HR (all the usual suspects), 29 RBI, and 46 strikeouts versus Moore and have the ability to blow up a pitcher with a flick of the switch. No one said this was easy.
| Player | Tm | H | Opp | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BAA | SwStr% | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | BABIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA v L | wOBA v R | $FD | $DK | $Aces |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | R | CHI | 15.2 | 10.92 | 3.45 | 0.57 | .211 | 12.2% | 2.87 | 3.22 | 1.15 | .282 | 46.2% | 25.6% | 1.8 | 0.304 | 0.218 | $9,100 | $12,000 | $6,900 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | R | SEA | 57 | 11.37 | 5.21 | 0.32 | .271 | 13.5% | 3.79 | 3.53 | 1.65 | .395 | 56.5% | 17.7% | 3.19 | 0.209 | 0.333 | $8800 | $9,800 | $6,550 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma | SEA | R | HOU | 114.1 | 6.53 | 1.89 | 1.42 | .284 | 8.9% | 4.25 | 4.38 | 1.34 | .304 | 41.1% | 36.9% | 1.11 | 0.337 | 0.319 | $8700 | $8,500 | $6,250 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | R | TB | 113.1 | 7.79 | 3.34 | 1.11 | .232 | 10.5% | 3.42 | 4.25 | 1.23 | .266 | 42.9% | 35.2% | 1.22 | 0.368 | 0.286 | $8700 | $10,600 | $6,300 |
| Jason Hammel | CHI | R | TEX | 96.1 | 7.38 | 2.8 | 1.31 | .226 | 10.7% | 3.46 | 4.2 | 1.13 | .243 | 46.4% | 32.0% | 1.45 | 0.373 | 0.251 | $8,400 | $7,200 | $6,300 |
| Matt Moore | TB | L | BAL | 109 | 8.01 | 2.72 | 1.49 | .264 | 11.2% | 4.46 | 4.26 | 1.33 | .297 | 40.1% | 41.9% | 0.96 | 0.314 | 0.340 | $7,700 | $8,100 | $6,200 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | R | TOR | 90.2 | 7.15 | 3.38 | 1.19 | .277 | 8.8% | 5.16 | 4.21 | 1.47 | .305 | 55.1% | 23.6% | 2.33 | 0.293 | 0.375 | $7,700 | $5,400 | $6,300 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | R | OAK | 116.2 | 6.4 | 3.09 | 1.54 | .250 | 10.6% | 3.93 | 4.51 | 1.29 | .264 | 45.7% | 33.6% | 1.36 | 0.369 | 0.308 | $7,600 | $8,300 | $5,800 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | L | BOS | 88.1 | 7.34 | 3.46 | 0.61 | .249 | 11.1% | 3.77 | 4.41 | 1.34 | .293 | 50.8% | 33.0% | 1.54 | 0.335 | 0.300 | $6,700 | $6,900 | $5,800 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | L | NYY | 29.1 | 6.44 | 3.68 | 2.76 | .315 | 10.0% | 8.59 | 5.45 | 1.74 | .313 | 31.1% | 48.5% | 0.64 | 0.378 | 0.428 | $6,300 | $4,600 | $5,700 |
Night Slate
We have some decent options on the night slate with a few possible options for the cash game player.
Jeff Samardzija, San Francisco Giants
The Padres, although having the ability to surprise you versus LHP (something you should know already as a DFS player), more often than not follow the same pattern versus RHP, bad. The Padres are striking out 23.5 percent of the time with a .289 wOBA (29th in MLB) and wRC+ of 81 (also 29th in MLB) versus RHP on the season. At home in Petco Park, which used to be a pitcher’s park, but not as much anymore the Padres are 28th in wOBA in MLB coming in at .296. The Shark is a -174 favorite pitching in a game with an expected run total of 8.0. Over his last two starts versus the dangerous Diamondbacks on the road, and home, he has struggled, allowing six earned runs over 13 2/3 innings while striking out 11 batters. Comparing the Arizona offense to the Padres' offense is like comparing homemade spaghetti sauce to Ragu. Not even close. He has owned the Padres historically and I see no reason that does not continue today. He is THE CHALK PLAY of the night and the safest.
Danger Zone
We have a decent sample size of BVP here. The Padres are batting .256 (30-for-117) with two HR (Jon Jay and Matt Kemp), eight RBI, and 30 strikeouts while swimming with The Shark. Outside of LHB carrying a .350 wOBA versus The Shark what is not to love?
Matt Shoemaker, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
If the shoe fits wear it, right? Well that is exactly what I am going to do. Tonight Matt Shoemaker is home facing the Chicago White Sox who are striking out 20.6 percent of the time with a low .310 wOBA versus RHP. On the road it dips slightly to .305, something I suspect will not be aided playing in the pitcher friendly park in Anaheim. Shoemaker is the -162 favorite and this game has an expected run total of 8.5 (which is the lower side of the slate). Not only does Shoemaker have a nice K/9 of nine, but he also has a 4.45 ERA versus a 3.78 xFIP which means he has been a bit unlucky. Over his last six starts, which includes some heavy hitters like the Red Sox and Orioles, he has 38 strikeouts over 37 innings with a 2.92 ERA. He is the player I would try to pair with Tthe Shark on two-pitcher sites and he is cash-game viable on a one-pitcher site.
Danger Zone
First off, the best hitters for the White Sox are right-handed and Shoemaker has reverse splits with LHB carrying a .302 wOBA and RHP carrying a .353. This I find concerning. Also, and here it comes, the White Sox are batting .351 (26-for-74) with five HR (Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia (2), Todd Frazier, and Brett Lawrie), nine RBI, and a nice 21 strikeouts versus the Shoe. That is 21 strikeouts versus 74 at-bats.
One more thing about the Shoemaker play: Sometimes, when I take a guy like him in a matchup like this, I will throw a few bucks on a stack against him, just makes me feel better.
Jerad Eickhoff, Philadelphia Phillies
This is what I consider the third viable cash game play of the evening. Eickhoff gets a positive park shift at home (Citizens’ Bank Park is 29th in runs scored in MLB.) facing a Mets team that is striking out 22.1 percent of the time with a low .309 wOBA versus RHP, which is 26th in MLB. On the road they do pick it up a bit with the wOBA elevating to .319 but once again, I doubt this plays outside of hitters parks. Eickhoff is a -102 favorite pitching in a game with an expected run total of 8.5, which is right in the flow of things. Over his last two starts versus the Rockies on the road and Braves at home he has allowed 10 earned runs over 13 innings while striking out 11 batters. Can you guess what happened here? Yup, Coors Field. He allowed eight earned runs there in his last start. So that is negated. Eickhoff is dominant at home and has the 2.40 home ERA to back it up and I will back this up by using him tonight in a line up or two. Yes, I play every pitcher in this article somewhere.
Danger Zone
First off the fact LHB have a .339 wOBA is always concerning, but not as much versus the Mets in my eyes. The Mets are batting .231 (21-for-91) with three HR (Curtis Granderson (2) and Yoenis Cespedes), nine RBI, and a whopping 22 strikeouts. Risk versus reward? I see more reward here.
The next two players are both boom or bust cheapies to throw out for some low ownership. I will be using them tonight with the understanding more than likely they implode, but, if they do not? They could be the deal of the night.
Mike Foltynewicz, Atlanta Braves
This play is better for FanDuel due to the expensive price-tag on DraftKings.
Foltynewicz at home is a totally different pitcher than he is on the road. At home Folty has a 2.49 ERA as opposed to his 4.61 ERA while traveling. With some pitchers this matters, believe me. Maybe it’s the 7-Eleven burrito’s? Today he is the -101 favorite pitching at home versus the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies are striking out 20 percent of the time with a monster .353 wOBA versus RHP. Coors Field anyone? Anyone? Yup, you guessed it. The Rockies at home may rock but they do anything but roll on the road. Away from Coors Field the Colorado Rockies are tied for 23rd in wOBA with the White Sox and Brewers at .305 and have a low wRC+ of 87. In Folty’s last start versus the White Sox in the hitter friendly park in Chicago he pitched seven scoreless innings while striking out 10 batters. I fully expect him to shut down the Rockies today after their big night last night and will be using him in a GPP lineup for sure.
Danger Zone
LHB have a .390 wOBA versus Folty this season. This of course makes Carlos Gonzalez and Charlie Blackmon prime DFS plays today across the industry in the warm Atlanta weather. If he can navigate around them he should have smooth and clear sailing for the most part (outside of Arenado of course) with RHB having only a .308 wOBA versus him. We do not have enough BVP to really talk about here. This play is what it is, risky. It does however have a lot of strikeout upside and shutdown potential.
Tyler Duffey, Minnesota Twins
I will admit it. I have a Tyler Duffey thing. I play him all the time in DFS and own him on several of my seasonal teams. I just keep getting that feeling that he is going to amount to something big. Is that day today? More than likely not, but I will be using him in a cheap GPP for sure.
Duffey is at home today facing the Cleveland Indians in a game with and expected run total of 9.0. It is not every day I take a pitcher in a game with an expected offensive output this high but I just have the gut feeling he is going to shine today. The Cleveland Indians are striking out 20.4 percent of the time versus RHP and are 27th in wOBA on the road at .298. They also only have a wRC+ of 83 while traveling which is less than formidable. Duffey in his last two starts versus the dangerous Rangers on the road and at home has a 3.00 ERA over 12 innings with 11 strikeouts. Several things are in Duffeys favor today, he has a 5.20 ERA versus a 3.98 xFIP, which is a huge difference and suggests good things to come. He gets a decent park shift at home in Target Field, has a decent K/9 of 7.68, and keeps the ball on the ground. For the price across the industry on a day when you really do not need it, ownership will be low. Imagine if the Shark gets blown up today and Duffey shines and you are the guy who played it that way in a large field GPP? Get your PayPal account ready for a transfer. Or, he gives up 10 runs by the fifth inning.
Danger Zone
Extremely discerning reverse splits here with RHB carrying a .386 wOBA versus Duffey with LHB only carrying a .299 wOBA. The Cleveland Indians have the ability to put big numbers on the board and have some big RHB as well. All of this spells danger. On the positive side the Indians are batting .188 (12-for-64) with one HR (Roberto Perez), two RBI, and 19 strikeouts versus Duffey. Does this entice you a bit?
| Player | Tm | H | Opp | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BAA | SwStr% | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | BABIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA v L | wOBA v R | $FD | $DK | $Aces |
| Jeff Samardzija | SF | R | SD | 117.1 | 6.9 | 1.92 | 1.15 | .251 | 10.3% | 3.91 | 3.92 | 1.19 | .281 | 48.3% | 30.6% | 1.58 | 0.350 | 0.277 | $9,200 | $8,200 | $7,000 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | R | MIA | 110.1 | 7.01 | 2.28 | 0.65 | .278 | 9.3% | 4.49 | 4.16 | 1.32 | .318 | 46.4% | 28.1% | 1.65 | 0.315 | 0.321 | $9,000 | $8,300 | $7,100 |
| Danny Duffy | KC | L | DET | 81.2 | 10.36 | 1.87 | 1.21 | .233 | 15.4% | 3.09 | 3.21 | 1.07 | .292 | 39.3% | 42.7% | 0.92 | 0.338 | 0.322 | $8,800 | $11,000 | $5,950 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | R | WSH | 68.1 | 7.25 | 2.63 | 0.40 | .267 | 8.6% | 2.77 | 4.2 | 1.32 | .318 | 45.2% | 26.9% | 1.68 | 0.339 | 0.274 | $8,700 | $7,300 | $6,800 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | R | MIN | 101 | 8.11 | 3.03 | 0.71 | .229 | 10.5% | 3.3 | 3.88 | 1.2 | .276 | 51.4% | 28.4% | 1.81 | 0.282 | 0.286 | $8,600 | $9,600 | $6,400 |
| Tanner Roark | WSH | R | PIT | 116.2 | 7.79 | 2.62 | 0.54 | .244 | 9.5% | 3.01 | 3.7 | 1.2 | .299 | 55.6% | 24.3% | 2.29 | 0.263 | 0.301 | $8,500 | $9,300 | $6,400 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | R | NYM | 109 | 7.76 | 2.31 | 1.16 | .261 | 10.2% | 3.8 | 4.01 | 1.26 | .291 | 45.5% | 32.3% | 1.41 | 0.339 | 0.306 | $8,200 | $7,800 | $5,800 |
| Matt Shoemaker | LAA | R | CWS | 97 | 9 | 1.95 | 1.21 | .275 | 14.5% | 4.45 | 3.78 | 1.32 | .326 | 38.6% | 37.2% | 1.04 | 0.302 | 0.353 | $8,100 | $7,700 | $6,300 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LA | R | ARI | 10 | 12.6 | 3.6 | 0.90 | .143 | 11.4% | 2.7 | 2.75 | 0.90 | .200 | 42.9% | 47.6% | 0.90 | 0.348 | 0.147 | $8,000 | $8,900 | $6,350 |
| James Shields | CWS | R | LAA | 67.1 | 7.62 | 3.34 | 1.2 | .272 | 11.3% | 4.28 | 4.24 | 1.43 | .314 | 48.2% | 28.4% | 1.7 | 0.362 | 0.383 | $7,400 | $5,100 | $6,200 |
| Logan Verrett | NYM | R | PHI | 56 | 5.95 | 3.86 | 1.45 | .265 | 8.7% | 4.34 | 5 | 1.48 | .272 | 48.6% | 31.3% | 1.55 | 0.312 | 0.401 | $6,900 | $4,700 | $5,750 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | R | CIN | 107 | 6.39 | 3.87 | 1.01 | .252 | 7.9% | 3.62 | 4.83 | 1.38 | .277 | 50.8% | 31.6% | 1.61 | 0.335 | 0.321 | $6,800 | $6,300 | $5,800 |
| Tom Koehler | MIA | R | STL | 96 | 7.03 | 4.22 | 0.75 | .276 | 9.6% | 4.5 | 4.95 | 1.56 | .316 | 46.0% | 29.1% | 1.58 | 0.365 | 0.313 | $6,800 | $5,300 | $5,650 |
| Luis Perdomo | SD | R | SF | 65 | 7.76 | 3.18 | 1.38 | .349 | 11.2% | 7.48 | 4.21 | 1.97 | .396 | 61.0% | 16.9% | 3.62 | 0.407 | 0.397 | $6,800 | $4,000 | $5,800 |
| Archie Bradley | ARI | R | LA | 64 | 9.28 | 3.94 | 1.41 | .246 | 9.9% | 4.64 | 4.03 | 1.41 | .286 | 47.5% | 28.5% | 1.67 | 0.391 | 0.283 | $6,600 | $7,900 | $5,900 |
| Michael Foltynewicz | ATL | R | COL | 49 | 8.26 | 1.65 | 2.02 | .262 | 10.9% | 3.67 | 3.92 | 1.22 | .279 | 40.8% | 39.4% | 1.04 | 0.390 | 0.308 | $6,600 | $7,100 | $6,050 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | R | ATL | 102 | 6.89 | 2.03 | 1.15 | .305 | 9.5% | 5.65 | 4.04 | 1.5 | .342 | 54.8% | 23.0% | 2.38 | 0.320 | 0.378 | $6,400 | $6,000 | $5,750 |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | R | CLE | 79.2 | 7.69 | 1.81 | 1.58 | .281 | 9.2% | 5.2 | 3.98 | 1.38 | .316 | 48.3% | 26.6% | 1.81 | 0.299 | 0.386 | $6,100 | $7,100 | $5,800 |
| John Lamb | CIN | L | MIL | 68 | 7.28 | 3.84 | 1.59 | .285 | 8.7% | 5.43 | 4.59 | 1.53 | .306 | 46.3% | 30.6% | 1.52 | 0.332 | 0.374 | $5,800 | $5,800 | $5,900 |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | R | KC | 98.1 | 4.21 | 3.48 | 1.19 | .329 | 7.5% | 4.58 | 5.11 | 1.71 | .337 | 54.3% | 22.4% | 2.42 | 0.388 | 0.368 | $5,600 | $4,000 | $5,600 |
Good luck today and watch your catchers. See you tomorrow!
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