DFS MLB Pitching Coach: June 26

Sunday is here. While most people will be relaxing today I will be writing this article, opening my bar, and spending the afternoon watching baseball while I put new inventory in my EBay store. I have been buying and selling sports cards as a side business now for over 30 years. I bought my first pack of cards in 1981 and I will never forget it.

I got on my bike and headed to Lucky’s Supermarket in Torrance, Calif., with my $5 allowance (which in 1981 was a score) burning a hole in my pocket. Like any kid I blew my money in the vending machines or buying candy in the store. This day I had .50 cents left. In front of me at the checkout was a giant yellow box that said "1981 Donruss Baseball." I bought a pack with my change hoping for gum. At first I was sad because Donruss cards contained no gum, I got a puzzle piece. But I also developed a love that would last a lifetime and lead me here today from that pack of cards.

The first card I had ever seen was Bill Madlock. I remember thinking how funny the stripes running across the Pirates hat looked to me. Over the next few months I started buying a pack of cards each week with my change. It became routine. The funny thing is, I was yet to watch a game of baseball. I knew nothing about it. I had no favorite team, no idea of positions, or the rules. I just liked the pictures on the cards. Then one day my late Uncle Tony was visiting my mother. They were hanging out like brother and sister do, drinking beer, smoking cigarettes (remember this was 1981), and I gather being generally merry. Then the moment happened. My uncle walked over and asked me if he could change the channel. More like letting me know he was changing it, would be more accurate I guess. When he turned the dial I saw a bunch of guys in white uniforms with pinstripes playing a bunch of guys with blue hats that said LA. This was the 1981 World Series and this moment would forever change my life. From this day on I would spend each evening with my radio listening to Vin Scully talk baseball. As my love for baseball grew, so did my love for the Dodgers and baseball cards. You see, each time I get a new card, whether it be a vintage rookie, or autographed rookie, I feel I own my own piece of baseball history. I love this game, I have now most of my life, and while most are preparing for football, I am preparing for the loss I feel when baseball ends. The Dodgers won that World Series in 1981, but the real winner was me. Thanks baseball, and Steve Garvey.

Today’s slate on FanDuel is weird once again where the “Main” slate with all the best single entry tournaments ends before the start of the 4 p.m. games. Why they did this I do not know. I have come to the conclusion that they really need to hire some baseball people to do this for them. Whoever they have, has no clue. On DraftKings, of course, we have the usual selection which is better suited for Sunday baseball with the ability to make swaps after lineup lock. I will be playing on both sites today and more than likely in all three slates offered (minus the all-day slate on FanDuel).

So with a house full of kids, a cat I believe is pissed at us for moving our bedroom around staring at me, and a fresh cup of coffee, I bring you today’s Pitching Coach Article.

The Real Jerry Colvin amateur Weather Report

We have a ton of heat and humidity today across the country, especially from Texas on through the Midwest. We also have thunderstorms and rain riddled throughout this entire region so keep a close eye on the weather here. The temps will be in the 90’s from the middle of nation over to Washington D.C. with the West Coast (especially California) staying nice and cool with temps in the low 80’s in Southern California and low 70’s from Los Angeles to San Francisco. The East Coast is going to mid-80’s and humid while Florida through Georgia also has weather issues. Keep a close eye on things, especially when it pertains to starting pitchers. It is early and, of course, the weather at 6 a.m. can change. And also, I am not a real weatherman…but I did stay at a Holiday Inn last night. No, I really didn’t.

Top Cash Game Plays

As always these plays are the ones to be used on a one-pitcher site and you should have at least one of these players in your lineup on a two-pitcher site in cash games using two if possible.

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

So here we are. We have a Coors Field game and Clayton Kershaw on the same slate. It is kind of like being single and having two hot chicks who both want to go home with you from the bar but you can only have one. Which do you choose? If you go with Kershaw, you will be forced at his exuberant price tag to fade Coors Field while still hunting down value in the other games. To put this into perspective when inserting Kershaw on FanDuel into your lineup you are left with $2,738 per player. That is not a lot when you want to add a Paul Goldschmidt. For instance, if you used Kershaw and Goldschmidt you would be left with $2,414 per player to roster seven more spots. This is tough even for the best DFS players. Do not get me wrong, though, I will have this combination in at least one lineup, as I am confident enough in my ability on a Sunday to grab some minimum salary scrubs in great spots, to get it done. So, if asked to Kershaw? Or, not to Kershaw? The answer in cash games is most definitely Kershaw.

Today Clayton Kershaw is on the road in PNC Park which 29^th in HR allowed in MLB pitching in a game with an expected run total of 6.5 and is a heavy -265 favorite. The Pittsburg Pirates are striking out a whopping 25.8 percent of the time with a .325 wOBA versus LHP. At home their wOBA elevates slightly to .331 with a decent wRC+ of 113. Their bats are also productive at the moment hitting .270 over the last seven days and they are striking out 26.2 percent of the time. The thing is, I could care less about any of this. I have no problem taking Clayton Kershaw even in Coors Field. The strikeouts alone give you a ton of fantasy points regardless if by some chance he lets up a few runs. Kershaw continues to dominate allowing three earned runs over his last 14 2/3 innings versus the Nationals and Diamondbacks on the road with 19 strikeouts. He is the best pitcher in baseball facing a Pirates team that despite yesterday is having trouble winning games right now. Today they face Kershaw with his 11.03 K/9 and 53.3 percent GB rate. Yeah, they are toast. Go Dodgers!

Danger Zone

Here is the thing you never expect. The BVP is not favorable versus the Pirates for Kersh. The current Pirates roster is batting .291 (32-for-110) with three HR (Andrew McCutchen, Chris Stewart, and Gregory Polanco), nine RBI, and 24 strikeouts. This still does not scare me.

Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins

The Cubs are not usually a team I will attack due to the high-powered offense. But the reality is the Cubs have dropped quite a bit down the offensive chart as of late and I am more than willing to attack them with an elite pitcher like Jose Fernandez. Especially on the early slate with little to choose from.

The Chicago Cubs are striking out 22.5 percent of the time with a .317 wOBA (trust me, for a while it was much higher) and wRC+ of 96. On the road their wOBA elevates slightly to .326 but I doubt this plays out in Marlins Park which is 21^st in runs scored in MLB. Lately their bats are below the marginal line hitting .249 over the last seven days. Meanwhile, Fernandez is a -152 favorite pitching in a game with an expected run total of 6.5 which is tied for the lowest of the day. Fernandez has one of the nastiest sliders in MLB and a 12.83 K/9 to go with it. Over his last five starts spanning 34 innings he has a 1.32 ERA with 47 strikeouts and I fully expect him to dominate the Cubbies today.  

Danger Zone

The current Cubs roster has minimal BVP but the minute fraction that exists is favorable.

Johnny Cueto, San Francisco Giants

So many people busted my chops for selecting Francisco Lindor as my third pick in a startup dynasty league on Fantrax at the start of the season. The reason sighted was I could have had Jose Fernandez. The reality is, I was targeting Johnny Cueto as my SP1 in a later round and wanted Lindor for the future so I nabbed him a little early. Well, ha-ha. It appears at least for now it is working as I am just out of striking distance of first place while the friend of mine that criticized me is near the bottom. Of course, I work for Fantasy Alarm so I have an unfair advantage. This is what we do. I mean all of this with love and respect of course.

Today, Cueto gets a great park shift pitching at home in AT&T Park which is 30^th in HR allowed. He is also a -245 favorite and this game has a low expected run total of seven as well. The Philadelphia Phillies despite touching up Madison Bumgarner last night still are striking out 22 percent of the time with a low .297 wOBA (27^th in MLB) and wRC+ of 82 (29^th in MLB) versus RHP. On the road it does not get much better with their wOBA elevating to .313 but I doubt this plays out in the pitcher friendly AT&T Park. Cueto over his last two starts versus the Brewers at home and Pirates on the road has a 1.32 ERA with 15 strikeouts over 13 2/3 innings. I find him a much better value on FanDuel than DraftKings where for a few hundred dollars more you can have Kershaw.

Danger Zone

Cueto has been dominant versus the current Phillies roster. They are batting .200 (11-for-55) with one HR (Ryan Howard), three RBI, and 13 strikeouts.

Tanner Roark, Washington Nationals

One of the beautiful things about the slate today is we have cheaper options I feel are cash game viable if you want to load up on Coors Field bats today. Despite not getting a positive park shift with Miller Park being 10^th in runs scored in MLB I am still all in on Tanner Roark. Even if the Brewers are swinging hot bats. The Milwaukee Brewers are striking out 24.4 percent of the time (second in MLB) with a .321 wOBA and wRC+ of 95 versus RHP. At home their wOBA as expected rises to .330 which is concerning I will admit but they are striking out 30.7 percent of the time over the last seven days which I find way to enticing to pass up. Tanner Roark has a decent 7.91 K/9 with a 57 percent GB rate. His ERA and xFIP are also close which makes me feel like he is stable. Over his last three starts versus the Phillies at home and Padres and Dodgers on the road he has a 3.10 ERA with 17 strikeouts over 20 1/3 innings. I realize these are not the toughest opponents but in reality neither is Milwaukee. For the price on FanDuel I will run a lineup with Roark but I do find him a bit expensive on DraftKings. If he gives me anything near what he has done in his last few starts, I will be happy.

Danger Zone

We have little BVP here but what we do have is pretty sweet. The current Brewers lineup is batting .161 (5-for-31) with no HR, three RBI, and three strikeouts.

GPP plays that will make or break your wallet.

Of course, any time you take players in this section you are doing so at your own peril. That is why they are here and are not for the faint at heart.

Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies

Here we have a situation where I like both pitchers in the same game. Although I prefer Cueto by a mile, for the price on both DraftKings and FanDuel, I also love me some Nola. He benefits from the same positive park shift Cueto does pitching at AT&T Park and also benefits from the same low expected run total. Even if most of it is against him. The Giants are only striking out 15.8 percent of the time and have a .322 wOBA versus RHP which certainly is less than favorable but at home their wOBA drops to .299 which is 25^th in MLB. Nola has struggled lately being completely blown up in his last three starts. He has allowed a whopping 20 earned runs in his last 9 2/3 innings pitched with only 10 strikeouts. He has not gone four innings in three straight starts. Nola despite this recent slump is still a decent pitcher. He keeps the ball on the ground 57.5 percent of the time and still has a 9.76 K/9 on the season. His ERA may be 4.11 but he has a 3.01 xFIP which suggests he has been unlucky. Real unlucky lately. For a GPP play I am all in on Nola.

Danger Zone

We have no BVP here but I will say if Nola does not put it together today, I will cut bait on him.

Tyler Wilson, Baltimore Orioles

Attack the Rays with RHP! Say it. Attack the Rays with RHP! One more time. Attack the Rays with RHP! You get my point?

The Tampa Bay Rays are striking out 26.2 percent of the time (first in MLB) with a low .298 wOBA and wRC+ of 87 versus RHP. They also over the last seven days are batting a pathetic .119 with a wRC+ of 40. Yes, 40. Wilson does not get a positive park shift at home in Camden Yards but regardless the youngster continues to put together quality starts. Over his last two versus the Red Sox on the road and Padres at home he has 10 strikeouts over 14 innings with a 1.93 ERA. Although he does not offer a ton of strikeout upside facing the Rays it may have an ability to appear today. His price is cheap across the industry and he is a fine player to pair with a stud on a two-pitcher site or in a GPP on FanDuel.

Danger Zone

The current Tampa Bay lineup in a miniscule sample size has touched him a bit batting .417 (5-for-12) with one HR (Tim Beckham) and no strikeouts. This does not concern me as I believe Wilson has put something together and the Rays will face a different guy today.

James Paxton, Seattle Mariners

Attacking the St. Louis Cardinals on most days is something I avoid. Not today in GPPs, though, with Paxton. He has an elite 10.31 K/9 and even facing a Cardinals team that only strikes out 19.1 percent of the time that spells upside. I am not going to go crazy here with numbers as the St. Louis Cardinals are one of the best offenses in MLB and have the ability to turn a pitcher into hamburger in a matter of an inning. Paxton does however get a great park shift at home in Safeco Field which is tied for 22^nd in runs scored in MLB with Nationals Park. He also has a 0.73 home ERA this season versus his 5.19 road ERA. Over his last two starts he has 17 strikeouts in 20 innings versus the Tigers and Rays with a 3.15 ERA. I say he shuts down the Cardinals today and is the highest upside GPP play of the day.

Danger Zone

The current Cardinals roster in a small sample size is batting .273 (3-for-11) with one HR (Brandon Moss) and four strikeouts. Go Paxton! Go Paxton! Come on! He’s cheap! Sometimes, I am so lame.

Once again I want to point out that Sonny Gray is only $5,900 on DraftKings today. He is hit or miss for sure (with more miss lately), but at that price I will have him in at least one cheapie GPP. But, more than likely as usual he will kill me. I am just a sucker for a cheap Gray.

Go Dodgers!

Follow me on Twitter @RealJerryColvin or email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.com

I also have an EBay store with some fine sports cards in it, this is the URL:  http://stores.ebay.com/jerrysgemmints/