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One-Third. That is what I placed last night in the Free Contest on DraftKings to win a trip to the World Series. So this question is begging to be asked, “Would you rather come in third or 1000th in a contest with no second prize?” You see, the “what if” here has been killing me since 2 a.m. Regardless, I was still able to have a great night DFS wise across the big two.
So it appears all of our DFS brothers in NY will be returning to action soon enough. Good news to say the least for the industry.
Most people do not realize this but I am more than just a “DFS” guy. I also manage over 30 seasonal fantasy baseball teams. I play on Yahoo, ESPN, Fantrax, CBS, and in the NFBC. Of these sites I can say this, “Fantrax is the best site hands down for dynasty formats and keeper leagues." They also offer several other formats to play in as well. They are a smaller site which I always like to support so check them out if you play seasonal.
As usual today the sites are offering an all-day slate as well as an early, afternoon, and late slate. The theme of the day today will be choices. Whereas some days we have few, today we have many. Not only do we have several great SP 1’s pitching but they also find themselves in great parks with great matchups. On DraftKings if you are looking for savings today you are simply, “shit-out-of-luck.”
All the SP worth taking is expensive and the lower salary guys all have crap for upside and little to offer. So, study today because on DraftKings you are going to have to hunt value in the bats. Catcher is always a good start as well as second base.
With the day drawing closer where I will be outnumbered six females to one male in my house I bring you today’s Pitching Coach Article.
Top Cash Game Plays
The cash game section today is heavy with choices and let me tell you the difference in my rankings between each of them is miniscule. All of them are great plays in my opinion and it will come down to your personal choice in the end. As always these plays are the ones to be used on a one-pitcher site and you should have at least one of these players in your lineup on a two-pitcher site in cash games using two if possible.
Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals
Although the Padres are picking things up as of late Max Scherzer facing them in Petco Park is still my top cash game play of the day. This game has a low expected run total of seven and “Mad Max” is a -225 favorite. Historically, even if not so much so this season, he gets a positive park shift pitching in San Diego facing a Padres team striking out 23.3 percent of the time versus RHP with a .288 wOBA (30th in MLB) and wRC+ of 82 (29th in MLB). At home the Padres do not hit much better and the .297 wOBA shows it. Like I said, they are picking things up as of late batting .258 over the last seven days which by Padres standards is like .335 for the Tigers. The thing is Max Scherzer has been pitching “lights out” as of late. Over his last two starts facing the mighty Cubs at home and White Sox on the road Scherzer has a 0.64 ERA with 17 strikeouts over 14 innings. He has both the highest K/9 (11.14) and swinging strike percentage to go with it, along with the lowest xFIP on the slate as well. I say he goes through Padres tonight like a hot knife through butter.
Danger Zone
The BVP versus Scherzer is quite beautiful. The current Padres are batting .126 (14-for-111) with one HR (Wil Myers) and 25 strikeouts off of Max.
Zack Greinke, Arizona Diamondbacks
I have a strong dislike for Zack Greinke even If I have an immense respect for the amount of talent he possesses. So before we talk about him, lets discuss this wonderful Phillies team. The Philadelphia Phillies are striking out 22.7 percent of the time with a .293 wOBA (29th in MLB) and wRC+ of 80 (last in MLB) versus RHP. It gets better, they also are dead last in wOBA (.276) and wRC+ (68) at home and only batting .209 over the last seven days. Greinke today gets a positive park shift pitching at Citizens Bank Park which is 22nd in MLB in runs scored and is a -156 favorite pitching in a game with an expected run total of seven. As much as it kills me he is getting back to his old self with each start. Over his last 12 starts he has a 3.01 ERA, over his last six starts he has a 2.05 ERA, and in his last three starts versus the Rays and Dodgers at home and Astros on the road he has a 0.78 ERA with 19 strikeouts over 23 innings. If this trend continues today and I believe it will, Greinke should have one hell of an outing.
Danger Zone
Want see a thing of beauty? The current Phillies roster is batting .183 (13-for-71) with no HR and 25 strikeouts versus Greinke. Excited yet?
Steven Matz, New York Mets
Who’s got the Matz? I do today, that is for sure. Once again I am able to use my cheesy Matz intro as being the weekend guy it seems I keep getting the Matz start on my watch. Let’s be realistic, even though the Braves have picked things up as of late much like the Padres, they still are the Braves and regression is due at any turn. They are striking out 23.3 percent of the time and have a .260 wOBA (last in MLB) and wRC+ of 59 (also last in MLB) versus LHP. On the road the theme of being last continues as they are dead last in MLB in both wOBA (.291) and wRC+ (30). They have picked things up as of late batting .258 over the last seven days. Matz however is at home today and gets a positive park shift pitching in Citi Field which is tied with Kaufman Stadium for 23rd in HR allowed. He is a -253 favorite today and this game has an expected run total of eight. Not only does Matz keep the ball on the ground 57.1 percent of the time but sports elites numbers in several pitching categories. He has looked a little off as of late allowing six earned runs over his last 11 innings versus the Brewers and Pirates on the road, who both hit LHP well, so this does not scare me off versus Atlanta. Prior to this he had only allowed three earned runs over three starts. I fully expect him to get back on that track today.
Danger Zone
Once again we have smooth and clear sailing here. The current Braves are batting .250 (14-for-56) with one HR (Daniel Castro), three RBI, and 14 strikeouts.
Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs
This is the cash game play with both the most risk and strikeout upside. The Pittsburgh Pirates are striking out more than any other team in MLB versus LHP doing so an incredible 25.6 percent of the time. The problem is, they have a .330 wOBA and wRC+ of 110 to go with it. Today Lester does get a positive park shift pitching at home in Wrigley Field which is currently tied for 25th in MLB in runs scored but I do expect these numbers to change with the summer heat in effect. The wind is blowing in today at Wrigley at 5 mph (currently) and the temperatures tonight are going to be in the low 70’s so weather is in his favor. He has pitched lights out this season and has not allowed an earned run in his last two starts. As a matter of fact, he has a 1.82 ERA over his last six starts and this includes a great start versus the very same Pirates where he struck out nine batters over 6 2/3 innings while allowing only one earned run back on May 15th. With so many options I expect that no one will be particularly high owned today but I do expect Lester to be of the lower percentage.
Danger Zone
We have a decent sample size here with the current Pirates roster batting .235 (40-for-170) with four HR (Matt Joyce (2), Sean Rodriguez, and Chris Stewart), 16 RBI, and 47 strikeouts.
GPP plays that will make or break your wallet.
The GPPs are ugly today, carry a ton of blow up risk, and of course anytime you take players in this section you are doing so at your own peril. That is why they are here and are not for the faint at heart.
Jared Eickhoff, Philadelphia Phillies
This play is better for FanDuel where Eickhoff is only $7,500 as opposed to his exuberant price on DraftKings of $9,900. The reality is if you are going to spend $10,000 than you are better served throwing in the money to spend up for one of the players above.
Today Eickhoff benefits from the same positive park shift as Greinke at home in Philadelphia facing a mildly dangerous Diamondbacks team. The Arizona Diamondbacks are striking out 23.4 percent of the time with a .318 wOBA and wRC+ of 93 (21st in MLB) versus RHP. The do hit well on the road with a .336 wOBA and have been swinging a decent bat as of last hitting .272 over the last seven days striking out an incredible 30.7 percent of the time (first in MLB). Eickhoff is getting better each start much like his counterpart having only allowed one earned run over his last two starts with 13 strikeouts over 13 innings. Did I mention one of these starts was in Toronto? Even though the Diamondbacks can be scary, for the price, I will be using Eickhoff in a at least one GPP.
Danger Zone
We have little in the way of BVP here but LHB do have a .337 wOBA versus Eickhoff which points the danger in the direction of David Peralta, Chris Hermann, Jake Lamb, and Michael Bourne. This is one of them games where we will just have to watch it play out.
Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros
Although Dallas Keuchel has been horrible there is this part of me that keeps seeing his low price pitching at home and feels like I have to throw a few bucks on him. Today Keuchel gets a positive park shift at home in Minute Maid Park which is currently 27th in MLB in runs scored. He is also a heavy -265 favorite pitching in a game with an expected run total of 8.5. The Cincinnati Reds are striking out 22.1 percent of the time with a dangerous .330 wOBA versus LHP. Here is the thing, on the road the Reds wOBA drops to a low .306 and they have a wRC+ of 89. They are also cold only batting .226 over the last seven days. If there was ever a time for old Dallas to have a bounce-back game it is today. Although his ERA is 5.86 his xFIP is only 3.55 which by the saber bible suggests he has been unlucky.
Danger Zone
We have no BVP here but RHB do carry a .350 wOBA versus Keuchel which means Adam Duvall, Brandon Phillips, and Zack Cozart come to mind as possible dangers.
Michael Bolsinger, Los Angeles Dodgers
It seems each day I always spot that one scrub who seems to be in a position for a great start. So here is the thing, he is cheap and has K upside. As a matter fact he has a higher K/9 at 8.64 than Dallas Keuchel, James Shields, and Zack Greinke. Tonight he gets a great park shift at home in Dodger Stadium and he is a -159 favorite as well. The Milwaukee Brewers are striking out 24 percent of the time and have a decent .321 wOBA versus RHP. On the road, it is not so pretty. The Brewers on the road have a .305 wOBA and wRC+ of 88. They also are striking out 25.7 percent of the time and batting .263 over the last seven days. Although Bolsinger has allowed nine earned runs in his last 10 innings which is absolutely terrible for sure, he does have 10 strikeouts to go with it. In the past Bolsinger has shown flashes of greatness and my gut is telling me he will be that guy no one takes tonight who puts up a decent performance for pennies.
Danger Zone
Where do I start? First off the current Brewers roster is batting .381 (8-for-21) off of Bolsinger with two HR (Martin Maldonado and Jonathan Lucroy), three RBI, and five strikeouts. Both LHB and RHB have wOBA’s over .360 versus Bolsinger as well. On the positive, most of the ugly BVP all took place in Miller Park and not Dodgers Stadium which makes a huge difference. There is however just a likely chance tonight he surrenders seven runs in five innings as the goes out and strikes out eight batters over five innings while allowing two earned runs. We will see, but one thing is for sure…I am going to use him in at least one cheap GPP.
Danny Salazar is also viable today but is not available on most slates.
| Player | Tm | H | Opp | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BAA | SwStr% | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | BABIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA v L | wOBA v R | $FD | $DK | $Aces |
| Zack Greinke | ARI | R | PHI | 93.2 | 7.59 | 1.73 | 0.96 | .256 | 11.4% | 3.75 | 3.6 | 1.17 | .294 | 48.8% | 29.5% | 1.65 | 0.321 | 0.288 | $11000 | $13000 | $7400 |
| Aaron Blair | ATL | R | NYM | 40.1 | 5.13 | 5.13 | 1.12 | .308 | 8.8% | 7.59 | 6.05 | 1.81 | .312 | 43.8% | 33.6% | 1.3 | 0.411 | 0.353 | $4500 | $5,200 | $5500 |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | R | TOR | 18 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 0.50 | .319 | 5.4% | 7 | 5.49 | 1.67 | .319 | 41.5% | 32.3% | 1.29 | 0.394 | 0.325 | $7100 | $5400 | $5800 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | R | SEA | 82.2 | 7.95 | 1.85 | 1.31 | .229 | 8.1% | 3.81 | 3.83 | 1.08 | .259 | 47.3% | 32.9% | 1.44 | 0.246 | 0.360 | $8300 | $8,200 | $5900 |
| Jon Lester | CHI | L | PIT | 85.2 | 8.93 | 1.79 | 0.74 | .206 | 11.1% | 1.89 | 3.05 | 0.95 | .258 | 50.9% | 31.2% | 1.63 | 0.253 | 0.244 | $11400 | $12900 | $7000 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | R | CWS | 74 | 10.83 | 4.14 | 0.61 | .181 | 13.0% | 2.19 | 3.37 | 1.14 | .249 | 52.4% | 32.4% | 1.62 | 0.215 | 0.291 | $10300 | $11400 | $6650 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | R | MIA | 84 | 5.46 | 2.68 | 0.64 | .235 | 8.2% | 2.89 | 4.15 | 1.17 | .261 | 59.8% | 22.4% | 2.67 | 0.248 | 0.321 | $8100 | $8400 | $5800 |
| James Shields | CWS | R | CLE | 67.1 | 7.62 | 3.34 | 1.2 | .272 | 11.3% | 4.28 | 4.24 | 1.43 | .314 | 48.2% | 28.4% | 1.7 | 0.379 | 0.361 | $6700 | $4100 | $6000 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | L | KC | 25.2 | 7.01 | 3.86 | 1.75 | .245 | 9.1% | 4.91 | 4.71 | 1.36 | .253 | 41.8% | 39.2% | 1.06 | 0.257 | 0.339 | $5800 | $5400 | $5750 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | L | CIN | 87.2 | 8.32 | 2.87 | 1.03 | .280 | 10.3% | 5.54 | 3.52 | 1.44 | .337 | 60.8% | 18.8% | 3.22 | 0.295 | 0.350 | $7700 | $7700 | $6250 |
| Edinson Volquez | KC | R | DET | 85.1 | 7.07 | 3.38 | 0.84 | .252 | 9.4% | 3.9 | 4.18 | 1.36 | .290 | 55.0% | 25.2% | 2.18 | 0.293 | 0.319 | $8100 | $7100 | $6350 |
| Mike Bolsinger | LA | R | MIL | 25 | 8.64 | 2.16 | 2.52 | .258 | 11.8% | 5.76 | 4.15 | 1.24 | .266 | 36.6% | 35.2% | 1.04 | 0.361 | 0.363 | $5900 | $6700 | $5700 |
| Tim Lincecum | LAA | R | OAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $7600 | $6100 | $5700 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | MIA | L | COL | 77 | 7.48 | 1.99 | 1.75 | .267 | 9.9% | 4.68 | 4.03 | 1.26 | .286 | 41.4% | 35.4% | 1.17 | 0.304 | 0.343 | $8200 | $5800 | $5900 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | R | LA | 71.1 | 7.19 | 2.27 | 1.77 | .247 | 8.9% | 4.42 | 4.28 | 1.19 | .255 | 41.1% | 37.4% | 1.1 | 0.268 | 0.397 | $6600 | $8300 | $5800 |
| Ricky Nolasco | MIN | R | NYY | 77.1 | 7.91 | 1.63 | 1.05 | .284 | 10.6% | 5.12 | 3.73 | 1.31 | .318 | 44.4% | 33.9% | 1.31 | 0.323 | 0.328 | $6500 | $6300 | $5700 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | L | ATL | 66.1 | 8.96 | 1.63 | 0.54 | .250 | 10.6% | 2.71 | 3.06 | 1.15 | .314 | 57.1% | 23.8% | 2.4 | 0.313 | 0.262 | $10100 | $10900 | $7100 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | R | MIN | 72 | 9.87 | 2.38 | 1.5 | .302 | 15.2% | 5.88 | 3.6 | 1.51 | .366 | 45.4% | 32.4% | 1.4 | 0.401 | 0.356 | $7900 | $8300 | $6200 |
| Andrew Triggs | OAK | R | LAA | 18 | 9 | 2.5 | 1.5 | .312 | 10.0% | 8 | 3.55 | 1.61 | .375 | 57.6% | 22.0% | 2.62 | 0.369 | 0.416 | $3000 | $4000 | $0 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | R | ARI | 79.1 | 7.61 | 2.16 | 1.02 | .251 | 9.8% | 3.4 | 3.86 | 1.17 | .278 | 46.6% | 32.9% | 1.42 | 0.337 | 0.276 | $7500 | $9900 | $5950 |
| Jon Niese | PIT | L | CHI | 76.1 | 6.36 | 2.83 | 1.65 | .282 | 8.5% | 4.6 | 4.26 | 1.45 | .300 | 56.6% | 22.1% | 2.56 | 0.307 | 0.381 | $6900 | $5900 | $5850 |
| Colin Rea | SD | R | WSH | 65.1 | 6.62 | 3.31 | 0.96 | .265 | 7.3% | 5.37 | 4.87 | 1.45 | .298 | 49.0% | 24.3% | 2.02 | 0.317 | 0.346 | $5200 | $4700 | $5900 |
| Albert Suarez | SF | R | TB | 27 | 4.33 | 1.67 | 0.00 | .237 | 10.0% | 3.33 | 4.31 | 1.04 | .264 | 58.1% | 20.9% | 2.78 | 0.306 | 0.283 | $6600 | $7300 | $5250 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | R | TEX | 75.1 | 7.41 | 3.11 | 0.72 | .217 | 10.7% | 3.47 | 3.82 | 1.13 | .252 | 59.1% | 23.6% | 2.51 | 0.327 | 0.203 | $8700 | $9600 | $6350 |
| Matt Moore | TB | L | SF | 76.2 | 8.57 | 2.7 | 1.64 | .276 | 11.8% | 5.05 | 3.98 | 1.38 | .315 | 42.7% | 39.1% | 1.09 | 0.325 | 0.347 | $7500 | $6900 | $6100 |
| Nick Martinez | TEX | R | STL | 2.2 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 0.00 | .333 | 12.1% | 3.38 | 6.54 | 2.25 | .400 | 60.0% | 10.0% | 6 | 0.503 | 0.358 | $6200 | $4000 | $0 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | R | BAL | 84.1 | 6.08 | 3.31 | 1.28 | .249 | 9.5% | 4.16 | 4.65 | 1.32 | .266 | 47.1% | 31.8% | 1.48 | 0.366 | 0.298 | $6900 | $5900 | $5750 |
| Max Scherzer | WSH | R | SD | 95.1 | 11.14 | 2.27 | 1.6 | .203 | 16.3% | 3.4 | 3.03 | 1 | .250 | 37.4% | 43.6% | 0.86 | 0.360 | 0.204 | $11500 | $13900 | c |
Good luck today and keep an eye on your players. The weekend is here and players do get rested. And make sure to keep an eye on the weather.
Go Dodgers!
Follow me on Twitter @RealJerryColvin or email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.com