So I feel a little better today than yesterday but not quite as good as the day before that. If you catch my drift?
Business this week at my bar has been abysmal. The problem is my area is dying. The city of Pittsfield is just not business friendly in any way shape or form. They offer nothing in the way of tax incentives to lure companies in. We have several empty areas of industry here in Berkshire County that are all begging to be revived, if the right opportunities were offered. I hate politics, I do not follow it for the most part because I am true believer that it is all a giant sham (my personal beliefs are mine only and do not in any way reflect the opinions of Fantasy Alarm).
I am, however, a believer in feeding my family. But yet, I live in a city that is cutting funding to the food pantries for the poor but planting new flower pots in the middle of our city that require whole construction crews, with police officers making $40 per hour watching them on their cell phones. Just saying.
I actually really like todays pitching slate. Here is what I do not like. On FanDuel today they are only offering single-entry GPPs for more than a $1 on the main slate. The problem is the main slate is the all-day slate. On Sundays, often times stars get days off. And if you were to take a look at the pitching slate, overall, today is a great day to give some guys a day off with subpar pitching everywhere. So unless you are willing to find out Trayce Thompson is resting tonight after 1 p.m. when lineups lock and are willing to take that zero, you are kind of screwed. So your only choice is to play in the early and afternoon slates which feature exclusive multi-entry GPPs. I feel like FanDuel is forcing you to swim with the sharks. For this reason, I will not play any GPPs on FanDuel today. I will give you plays, but I am only playing some 50/50’s on the site today. I will reserve my GPP play to DraftKings today in more reasonable contests like the three-entry Slider.
Top Cash Game Plays
As always these plays are the ones to be used on a one-pitcher site and you should have at least one of these players in your lineup on a two-pitcher site in cash games. I give more consideration to FanDuel pricing rather than DraftKings pricing for this section.
Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs
I feel like every time I write this article I am featuring a Cubs pitcher. The reason is the Cubs pitching staff is the best in MLB this season. Imagine being the Atlanta Braves, yesterday you face Jake Arrieta, today Jon Lester. I would have called in sick this weekend if I was Daniel Castro. Anyhow, the Atlanta Braves are striking out 23.4 percent of the time with a .268 wOBA (30th in MLB) and wRC+ of 65 (29th in MLB) versus LHP. At home the Braves have a .265 wOBA but over the last seven days have started to heat up a bit batting .291, which does not scare me in the least. Lester gets a positive park shift historically pitching in Turner Field and over his last two starts versus the horrible Phillies on the road and Dodgers at home has 19 strikeouts over his last 17 innings with a 0.53 ERA. At the time of writing this article, Vegas has no line but I am sure he will be the heaviest favorite on the board in a game with a low expected run total from the Braves side. He is the top option today in cash games without a doubt.
Danger Zone
The current Braves roster is batting .233 (51-for-219) with 2 HR (Gordon Beckham and Freddie Freeman), 11 RBI, and 56 strikeouts. Historically all looks good to me.
Joe Ross, Washington Nationals
Outside of Lester, Joe Ross is my next favorite play of the day. The Philadelphia Phillies are striking out 22.7 percent of the time with a .295 wOBA versus RHP on the season. On the road the wOBA does not get much better elevating to .297 and they are only batting .229 over the last seven days, striking out 26.1 percent of the time. Ross gets a huge park shift at home with Nationals Park being 21st in MLB in runs scored where his ERA is higher than it is on the road (faced St. Louis, Miami, and Detroit in last three home starts). He is a -251 favorite today in a game with an 8.5 expected run total which is average across the slate. He got roughed up a bit in his last start facing the White Sox in Chicago allowing five earned runs over four innings, but in his two starts prior to this he had only allowed two earned runs over 14 innings versus the Cardinals at home and Phillies on the road. I find him an incredible value on FanDuel today at $8,100 and will split my cash games between him and Lester on that site.
Danger Zone
Want see a thing of beauty? In the small sample size, the current Phillies roster is batting .079 (3-for-38) with three hits and nine strikeouts. Boom! There goes the dynamite.
Steven Matz, New York Mets
Who’s got the Matz? I do today, that is for sure. Steven Matz is taking on the Milwaukee Brewers today who are striking out 22.4 percent of the time and have a .312 wOBA versus LHP. The two things that have put Matz in the three spot in Jerry Colvin land is the Brewers .332 home wOBA and the horrible park shift. I find these two a little risky but not enough to scare me off. The Brewers are mildly warm batting .258 over the last seven days but are still striking out 24.2 percent of the time over that span. You pair that strikeout percentage with the 9.1 K/9 of Matz and you have potential for some DFS gold even if he allows a few runs. Matz is also keeping the ball on the ground 59.6 percent of the time which certainly helps him in that park. Over his last two starts versus the White Sox at home and Pirates on the road he has 11 strikeouts over 10 2/3 innings with a 2.53 ERA. He also has the lowest xFIP on the slate at 2.98 and RHB only have a .263 wOBA off of him, which the Brewers are loaded with.
Danger Zone
The current Brewers roster is batting .143 (3-for-21) with one HR (Chris Carter, of course) and six strikeouts. Boom! There goes the dynamite, again.
Danny Salazar, Cleveland Indians (*Day-to-Day shoulder)
I still think that Danny Salazar deserves some cash game consideration today and I suspect he will be the least owned of these four plays. The problem is the Angels are only striking out an incredible 15.8 percent of the time versus RHP and have a decent .323 wOBA to go with it. The thing is, the place to attack the Angels is at home. In Angels Stadium which is currently 16th in MLB in runs scored they only have a .305 wOBA, and over the last seven days are striking out 20.3 percent of the time, while batting a subpar .240. With a K/9 of 10.67, even facing a team that does not strikeout a lot, Salazar provides a ton of upside and also has the highest swinging strike percentage on the slate. Over his last four starts he has a 2.81 ERA with 28 strikeouts over 25 2/3 innings facing a lot tougher teams in the form of the Orioles, Royals (who he struck out nine), and Reds at home, mixed in with the Red Sox on the road who did beat him up a little. I am loving me some Salazar today for sure and believe he is kind of the sneaky play.
Danger Zone
Slight danger here but not much. The current Angels roster is batting .276 (8-for-29) with two HR (both Kole Calhoun) and eight strikeouts. Boom again? We will see. Hopefully I am not out of dynamite.
GPP plays that will make or break your wallet.
Both of these plays are viable on a two-pitcher sites in limited fashion for cash games and great GPPs. Of course anytime you take players in this section you are doing so with risk. That is why they are here and are not for the faint at heart.
Zach Davies, Milwaukee Brewers
Not to toot my own horn but quite some time ago in one of my earlier articles I spotted Davies on the turnaround. While the DFS world had him as a top stack, I had him as my top GPP play. Well, we all know how that worked out. He is one of the most added SP in leagues in the last two weeks.
Today he is home facing a struggling Mets team who are striking out 23.1 percent of the time with a low .309 wOBA versus RHP. They do hit a little better outside of Citi Field with a .323 wOBA but over the last seven days are only batting .221 and striking out 24.3 percent of the time. Now you water down their thinned out lineup with Neil Walker leaving the game last night and being in doubt today and I believe Davies gets a nice bump. Although at home he does not get a positive park shift his home ERA is actually 3.27 versus his 7.82 road ERA. He clearly suffers from Jimmy Nelson syndrome and falls into that class of Milwaukee pitchers who somehow manage to have success in that horrible park. Over his last two starts versus the Athletics and Cardinals (who are one of the best offenses in MLB versus RHP) at home has a 1.20 ERA and 14 strikeouts over 15 innings. For $6700 on FanDuel if I was playing a GPP (which I am not), he would be my top play. On DraftKings at the price of $8800 he is about as sneaky as it gets.
Danger Zone
The current Mets roster is batting .227 (5-for-22) with two HR (Yoenis Cespedes and Curtis Granderson), four RBI, and five strikeouts. It’s not much, but what we have is manageable.
Jake Peavy, San Francisco Giants
Yes, Jake Peavy. I am not kidding. Hear me out. First off the Dodgers are striking out 20.3 percent of the time versus RHP with a low .306 wOBA. Second, he gets a great park shift at home in AT&T Park which is 27th in HR allowed in MLB. The Dodgers also on the road are not hitting any better with a .307 wOBA and over the last seven days are batting a pathetic .208. Trust me when I say as a die-hard Dodgers fan this breaks my heart. But the truth is the Dodgers do not pay my bills, no matter how much I love them. Peavy is a -115 favorite and this game is among the lowest on the slate with an expected run total of eight. Over his last two starts versus the mighty Cardinals and Braves on the road he has a 3.00 ERA with eight strikeouts over 12 innings, which I find impressive considering both of those teams do not strikeout much (both less than 20 percent). Peavy actually has been striking guys out and has a higher swinging strike percentage than Matt Moore. Over the last three seasons (2013-2015) Peavy has a 2.86 ERA versus the Dodgers and gets my call as the top GPP play of the day on DraftKings and just a little below Davies on FanDuel.
Danger Zone
The current Dodgers roster is batting .193 (28-for-145) with four HR (Adrian Gonzalez (3) and Andre Ethier), 16 RBI, and 28 strikeouts.
Michael Fulmer just missed this article today mostly due to ball park shift and a hefty price tag across the industry facing a Yankees team that does not strikeout much.
| Player | Tm | T | Opp | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BAA | SwStr% | ERA | xFIP | WHIP | BABIP | GB% | FB% | GB/FB | wOBA v L | wOBA v R | $FD | $DK | $Aces |
| Jon Lester | CHI | L | ATL | 8.93 | 1.94 | 0.80 | .208 | 10.6% | 2.06 | 3.13 | 0.97 | .259 | 49.7% | 31.2% | 1.6 | 0.264 | 0.248 | $11400 | $13400 | $7100 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | R | LAA | 10.67 | 3.95 | 0.53 | .183 | 13.4% | 2.24 | 3.38 | 1.13 | .250 | 52.5% | 31.9% | 1.65 | 0.223 | 0.279 | $10000 | $11000 | $6800 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | L | MIL | 9.1 | 1.79 | 0.60 | .239 | 10.3% | 2.39 | 2.98 | 1.11 | .305 | 59.6% | 22.3% | 2.68 | 0.290 | 0.263 | $9800 | $10700 | $7000 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | L | SEA | 9 | 3.55 | 1.66 | .240 | 13.9% | 3.32 | 3.85 | 1.3 | .278 | 54.8% | 24.5% | 2.24 | 0.235 | 0.353 | $9600 | $8500 | $6500 |
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | R | BAL | 8.51 | 2.91 | 0.45 | .221 | 9.4% | 2.91 | 3.34 | 1.15 | .282 | 60.6% | 18.1% | 3.35 | 0.281 | 0.259 | $9200 | $10500 | $6100 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | R | MIN | 8.09 | 1.78 | 1.43 | .233 | 8.4% | 4.04 | 3.82 | 1.08 | .263 | 45.9% | 32.7% | 1.4 | 0.252 | 0.375 | $8300 | $9400 | $5950 |
| Adam Conley | MIA | L | ARI | 9.05 | 3.48 | 0.70 | .250 | 10.5% | 3.76 | 4.26 | 1.36 | .313 | 42.6% | 34.1% | 1.25 | 0.246 | 0.298 | $8200 | $8000 | $5850 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | R | NYY | 9.25 | 2.83 | 0.94 | .225 | 12.5% | 2.83 | 3.52 | 1.18 | .282 | 50.4% | 31.8% | 1.59 | 0.368 | 0.312 | $8200 | $9000 | $6000 |
| Joe Ross | WSH | R | PHI | 7.1 | 2.64 | 0.70 | .238 | 11.1% | 2.92 | 4.3 | 1.21 | .273 | 46.5% | 29.4% | 1.58 | 0.330 | 0.256 | $8100 | $9200 | $6450 |
| Wade Miley | SEA | L | TEX | 6.53 | 2.51 | 1.51 | .283 | 9.4% | 5.27 | 4.35 | 1.38 | .304 | 45.7% | 35.6% | 1.28 | 0.244 | 0.344 | $7900 | $4900 | $5900 |
| Carlos Rodon | CWS | L | KC | 8.39 | 3.13 | 1.42 | .282 | 9.2% | 4.41 | 4.07 | 1.5 | .323 | 49.2% | 32.0% | 1.54 | 0.359 | 0.363 | $7900 | $7500 | $6300 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | R | DET | 9.68 | 2.32 | 1.64 | .305 | 15.0% | 6.14 | 3.67 | 1.53 | .367 | 45.3% | 32.3% | 1.4 | 0.408 | 0.366 | $7800 | $6700 | $6100 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | L | TB | 7.84 | 2.83 | 1.09 | .283 | 10.0% | 5.44 | 3.66 | 1.44 | .333 | 60.1% | 19.8% | 3.04 | 0.280 | 0.361 | $7700 | $8600 | $6450 |
| Jon Niese | PIT | L | STL | 6.21 | 2.92 | 1.52 | .268 | 8.3% | 3.93 | 4.29 | 1.39 | .284 | 57.6% | 21.4% | 2.69 | 0.327 | 0.365 | $7200 | $5800 | $5850 |
| Yordano Ventura | KC | R | CWS | 6 | 4.77 | 1.23 | .254 | 8.0% | 5.32 | 5.35 | 1.53 | .273 | 45.6% | 37.2% | 1.23 | 0.307 | 0.344 | $7200 | $5400 | $6100 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | L | MIA | 10.57 | 4.4 | 1.47 | .294 | 11.6% | 5.14 | 3.94 | 1.73 | .371 | 48.6% | 23.5% | 2.07 | 0.292 | 0.395 | $7000 | $6100 | $5900 |
| Mike Leake | STL | R | PIT | 5.66 | 1.69 | 1.45 | .258 | 6.0% | 4.22 | 4.25 | 1.18 | .259 | 50.6% | 27.8% | 1.82 | 0.312 | 0.318 | $6900 | $6400 | $5950 |
| Matt Moore | TB | L | HOU | 8.14 | 2.84 | 1.81 | .291 | 11.2% | 5.56 | 4.18 | 1.48 | .325 | 42.0% | 39.2% | 1.07 | 0.348 | 0.363 | $6800 | $6900 | $5700 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | R | NYM | 6.83 | 2.86 | 1.27 | .250 | 8.2% | 4.29 | 4.23 | 1.24 | .267 | 48.8% | 27.4% | 1.78 | 0.351 | 0.303 | $6700 | $8800 | $6100 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | R | TOR | 7.51 | 4.91 | 0.87 | .317 | 7.7% | 6.21 | 4.84 | 1.89 | .374 | 52.9% | 24.5% | 2.16 | 0.431 | 0.336 | $6300 | $4800 | $5750 |
| Jake Peavy | SF | R | LA | 7.16 | 2.83 | 1.19 | .303 | 11.4% | 6.41 | 4.56 | 1.56 | .344 | 41.9% | 33.3% | 1.26 | 0.421 | 0.350 | $6300 | $6200 | $5850 |
| Christian Friedrich | SD | L | COL | 7.07 | 4.82 | 0.32 | .259 | 7.7% | 2.57 | 4.81 | 1.57 | .303 | 52.3% | 31.8% | 1.64 | 0.345 | 0.287 | $6100 | $6300 | $5200 |
| Adam Morgan | PHI | L | WSH | 6.26 | 1.73 | 1.73 | .301 | 11.1% | 6.7 | 4.84 | 1.49 | .319 | 39.2% | 38.5% | 1.02 | 0.382 | 0.374 | $6000 | $4300 | $5650 |
| John Lamb | CIN | L | OAK | 4.98 | 3.55 | 1.18 | .281 | 7.9% | 4.74 | 5.14 | 1.47 | .283 | 47.7% | 33.1% | 1.44 | 0.363 | 0.345 | $5700 | $6300 | $5800 |
| Pat Dean | MIN | L | BOS | 7.42 | 2.08 | 1.19 | .303 | 7.4% | 4.75 | 4.22 | 1.48 | .347 | 42.3% | 34.0% | 1.24 | 0.311 | 0.374 | $5700 | $5000 | $5400 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | R | CIN | 6.6 | 3.45 | 1.73 | .303 | 9.7% | 5.49 | 4.62 | 1.61 | .319 | 52.2% | 24.2% | 2.16 | 0.364 | 0.403 | $4800 | $4600 | $5500 |
| David Huff | LAA | L | CLE | 2.46 | 2.45 | 4.91 | .471 | 4.4% | 12.27 | 5.38 | 2.46 | .353 | 61.1% | 22.2% | 2.75 | 0.221 | 0.642 | $4100 | $5900 | $5300 |
| Tyler Anderson | COL | L | SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | $4000 | $0 | $4500 |
| John Gant | ATL | R | CHI | 10.8 | 3.86 | 1.54 | .326 | 8.4% | 6.17 | 3.77 | 1.71 | .382 | 43.3% | 33.3% | 1.3 | 0.515 | 0.327 | $3000 | $4000 | $0 |
| Julio Urias | LA | L | SF | 10.8 | 4.63 | 2.31 | .320 | 11.4% | 6.94 | 4.04 | 1.89 | .394 | 41.2% | 26.5% | 1.56 | 0.289 | 0.464 | $0 | $0 | $5900 |
Good luck today and keep an eye on your players. The weekend is here and players do get rested. And make sure to keep an eye on the weather.
Go Dodgers!
Follow me on Twitter @RealJerryColvin or email me at TheRealJerryColvin@yahoo.com