DFS PLAYBOOK PRO – An exciting new offering from the Alarm is here! It’s the DFS Playbook Pro. I will be doing a daily breakdown of the hitters –Hitting Coach – while Howard Bender looks into the Pitchers (Pitching Coach). You can find the link to the Hitting and Pitching articles under the DFS Playbook pro tab at the top right of the screen.
OTHER LINKS TO BOOKMARK
WHAT’S WRONG WITH CANO?
Robinson Cano has stunk. He’s been a massive fantasy disappointment. He’s a loser.
Two out of three of those statements are true (the first two in case you weren’t clear).
FACT. Cano is going to the Hall of Fame.
FACT. Cano CAN hit at Safeco. Over 138 career games there his slash line is .305/.363/.463.
FACT. Cano has hit at least .313 in 3-straight seasons and better than .300 in 6-straight. He’s a career .308 hitter.
Look, Cano isn’t going to go .315-25-100 this season, it ain’t gonna happen after this slow start. Time to put that out of your head. Is he going to be a top-20 overall player like some thought he could be this season in the fantasy game? No he’s not. But here’s what you need to have at the forefront of your mind. Cano CAN be that player the rest of the way. What I mean is that he could produce numbers at that per game level over the last 115 games of the season. That means he could be a .300 hitter with 12-15 homers the rest of the way. Here’s why.
- I noted how he’s a .300 hitter. Period. His 23.6 line drive rate is two points clear of his career mark. His .299 BABIP is well below his .323 career mark and likely to rise if he keeps hitting the ball so squarely. His hard hit ball rate is 33.8 percent. His career mark is 32.8 percent. His walk rate is down a tad, and his K-rate is up and that is worth a pause, but honestly it could be a sample size thing and stands out as the only issue that I’m concerned with when it comes to his average.
(2) He’s not a 25 homer guy any more, fine. But 15 homers works for a second sacker, or did I miss the memo where a ton of second basemen are hitting 20+ homers? Each of the last six seasons his HR/F ratio has been in double-digits and his career mark is 13.5 percent. A hitter of his caliber simply isn’t going to post a 2.8 percent mark for a season unless he is hurt.
I’m holding/buying Cano.
WHAT’S WRONG WITH KIMBREL?
Craig Kimbrel is striking out 13.50 batters per nine, is walking 3.38 per nine, and has a 4.00 K/BB ratio. His career marks are 14.75, 3.36 and 4.39. The strikeouts are down a bit, though obviously still at an elite level, and his 19.7 swinging strike rate would be the best of his amazing career (his 14.75 K/9 mark is more than 2.50 batters better the next man in history of the game with a minimum of 300-innings pitched – Rob Dibble at 12.17). Nothing wrong here.
Kimbrel has a 1.17 GB/FB ratio, the same as last year and just under the 1.26 mark he owns for his career. Nothing wrong there.
So why does he have a 1.44 WHIP and 5.63 ERA?
- Kimbrel owns a career .277 BABIP. That mark is .389 this season. It’s been under .265 each of the last three seasons and will come down.
- Kimbrel owns a 21.3 percent line drive rate for his career. The mark is currently 33.3 percent. That’s just stupid. Kevin Gregg isn’t that bad. The mark is going to come down a ton.
- Kimbrel has a 0.44 HR/9 mark for his career. This season the rate is four times higher at 1.69. Each of the past five seasons the mark has never been higher than 0.54.
His “struggles” are completely the result of a small sample size.
WHAT’S WRONG WITH SANCHEZ?
Anibal Sanchez has a 6.12 ERA through 10 starts. Hideous. There are still things to like about his game however.
Sanchez has an 8.80 K/9 mark. That’s above his 7.97 career mark.
Sanchez has a 2.54 BB/9 mark. That’s higher than his 2.14 mark last season, but that was a career best. Each of the past four seasons the mark has been 2.93 or lower.
Sanchez has a .306 BABIP. His career mark is .299.
Now the concerns.
He’s already allowed 11 homers. He allowed 13 home runs the last two seasons (read that again). There’s no way he ends up with a HR/9 mark that is literally more than double his career rate (1.64 to 0.75).
He has a 59.5 left on base percentage. It’s true the mark was 63.5 last year but his career rate is 72.6 and the league average is about 70 percent.
Sanchez has allowed a 23.4 percent line drive rate. The mark has been under 22 percent each of the past six seasons. It should drop.
In the end his xFIP is currently 3.76. His career mark is 3.81. His current SIERA is 3.66. His career rate is 3.86.
Better times lie ahead so buy if his current owner is selling – you’ll obviously be able to get him at a significant discount.
Thanks to WMM for pointing out to me that there are a new batch of Kate Beckinsale photos. Do yourself a favor and take a look (I mean, even women have to be impressed, right?).
WHAT’S RIGHT WITH HUTCHISON?
Drew Hutchison is back in everyone’s good graces. Drew tossed a four hit shutout against the White Sox Monday and over his last four outings he’s posted a 2.26 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 9.45 K/9 and walked just four batters over 26.2 innings. That’s such a huge key for any pitcher – limiting the walk. With a seven to one K/BB ratio over his last four starts Hutchison is showing how effective he can be if he throws strikes. Look, the guy has a big arm with an 8.48 K/9 mark for his career. Given that his walk rate is a career best, half a batter better than the previous two seasons, Hutchison owns a 3.19 K/BB ratio. There were 36 pitchers last season who threw 162 innings and could match that mark. Do you know how many of them had an ERA of 4.00? Try just four.
4.05 Brandon McCarthy
4.09 Bartolo Colon
4.20 Dan Haren
4.37 Nathan Eovaldi
If Hutchison maintains the strikeout and walk rates, and keeps generating those grounders (currently 46 percent) his 5.12 ERA and 1.31 WHIP have nowhere to go but down. He’s got the ability to be an SP4 in mixed leagues.
WHAT’S RIGHT WITH UTLEY?
Chase Utley is washed up. Just ask anyone, or should I say everyone. It’s like folks didn’t seem to realize that there have only been a handful of second basemen the last two decades who could come close to matching his offensive production. But, at 36 years old and coming off a horrific April people were just flat out dropping Utley.
Utley has been effective in May batting .250 with a .728 OPS. Those are still uninspiring numbers, I’ll admit it, but they do dwarf his April (.114/.198/.200). Over his last nine games things have improved even further. Utley is batting .414 with a .500 OBP and .621 OPS over those 34 plate appearances. He’s hit four doubles and a triple with five runs and six RBIs. Much like with Cano you need to put out of your mind Utley being a star – it ain’t happening. Still, that doesn’t mean he can’t perform like the batter we’ve seen the last two seasons the rest of the way. That means Utley still profiles as a solid middle infield option in mixed leagues, one who could end up being a starter at second base for your club moving forward.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday at 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).