DFS PLAYBOOK PRO – An exciting offering from the Alarm is the DFS Playbook Pro. I will be doing a daily breakdown of the hitters –Hitting Coach – while Howard Bender looks into the Pitchers (Pitching Coach). You can find the link to the Hitting and Pitching articles under the DFS Playbook pro tab at the top right of the screen.
OTHER LINKS TO BOOKMARK
GARDNER CONTINUES TO HIT
The last seven games Brett Gardner is the most productive player in baseball who calls the outfield home as he’s hit .5600 with a 1.543 OPS. Gardner has hit four big flies, driven in 10 runs and scored 12 times in those seven contests. Why does no one talk about this guy? He’s batting .292. That’s the same number as Andrew McCutchen. He’s the owner of a .365 OBP, .010 points better than Justin Upton. He’s hit nine homers, one more than Mookie Betts. He’s scored 55 runs two MORE than Bryce Harper and Mike Trout (read that one again). He’s stolen 15 bases one more than Starling Marte. Don’t know about you but I hope you listened when we recommended drafting him in mixed leagues this year – he’s been a fantasy star. There, I said it.
HEYWARD HITTING - FINALLY
Immensely talented, Jason Heyward has been a shell of his former self the last two seasons. He started out with more of the same junk in his start to his Cardinals career this season, but he’s finally seemed to have found his groove of late punctuated by his work the last six contests (.440-4-8-6-1 with a 1.462 OPS). Heyward has scored a run each of the last six times he’s been on the field and each of the last seven games he’s had a hit. That run has pushed his June numbers into the stratosphere as he owns a .343 batting average and .571 SLG. At the same time check out that OBP for June. On its own a .356 mark is solid. When it’s accompanied by a .343 batting average that’s not so good. Heyward has taken two walks in June and for the season his walk rate of 5.4 percent is literally half of the 10.6 mark the past two seasons. The result can be seen in his season long work. Though his current batting average is .278, .015 points higher than his career mark, his OBP is .031 points lower than his normal at .318. Keep an eye on that aspect of his game as it might be the key to maintaining his success. He’s on pace to go 20/20, something he did do in 2012, as he pushes for that new contract. He’s a hell of a hitter when right, and he’s there right now. He could be as good as a bottom level OF2 in mixed leagues or as low as an OF4 so there is a lot of potential variance, but I’m a really big fan of the talent.
A SOX ACE?
The Red Sox have been saddled with tons of craptastic pitching this season. One man who doesn’t fall into that group is my favorite – Clay Buchholz. He had
another solid game Wednesday to lower his ERA to 3.68 on the year. Moreover, the last nine times he’s taken the bump that ERA is a mere 2.48 as he has a nearly 4:1 K/BB ratio.
Clay has an 8.81 K/9 mark this season. We’ve never seen that from him before as his career mark coming into 2015 was 6.88. Really think he’s adding two strikeouts to his career mark? Do you also think he’s going to hold on to a 2.23 BB/9 mark that would be a career best? His career walk rate prior to this season was 3.33. Guys don’t usually go from average to All-Star level after eight seasons. Digging deeper his HR/9 mark of 0.48 is well below his career 0.84 rate.
All of above, when you toss in who Clay has always been, hints at some regression moving forward. There are also a few other points to consider. His 1.29 WHIP is right on his career 1.31 mark. His 22 percent line drive rate would be a career worst (career 18.8 percent). Two further changes of note. (1) He is throwing his change up a bit more than recent seasons though his 16.8 percent usage rate this season is just above his 16.5 percent career mark. (2) While he’s throwing his fastball at the same rate he’s greatly increased his use of the 2-seam fastball. Since 2011 he’s never thrown that pitch even 12 percent of the time. This year the mark is over 27 percent. While you might think that would explain the success, it’s actually the opposite. In the 123 at-bats in which that pitch ended an at-bat batters are hitting .341, well above the .281 career mark he owns on the pitch. Could he be even better if he threw the pitch less? Perhaps. Lots of oddity going on here which makes me dubious since – he’s Clay Buchholz.
WORKLOAD LIMITS?
The following information comes from a Ken Rosenthal report. Here’s what he wrote.
“Club officials now expect that right-hander Michael Wacha can exceed 200 innings and righty Carlos Martinez 170.”
Is that possible? Certainly. But let’s lay out some facts first.
Wacha is coming off a shoulder issue that limited him to 88 innings pitched last season. In 2014 he threw 109 innings. In 2013 he dossed 149.2. In 2012 the number was 21 big league innings after 113.1 in college. His first two college seasons he tossed 105.2 and 129.2 innings. (1) Wacha has never thrown 150 innings in a season. (2) He was hurt last season and limited to 88.1 innings. Given those two facts do you think it’s reasonable to expect him to toss 200-innings this season let alone more? I think anyone taking that position is being positively foolish. Maybe his arm could handle the workload, again he’s never thrown 150 innings in a season, but even if he can physically hold up how is he going to perform? If the Cards make the playoffs, even if they think he can pitch 200 innings, one would have to think they would want to limit him to about 180 regular season innings then to leave him some arm for the playoffs, right? Whole things sounds incredibly short-sighted to me and one thing we’ve learned about the Cardinals of late is that they rarely go down that path.
Martinez has a checkered past of injury as well. Here’s what we know about him.
In 2010 he threw 59 innings.
In 2011 he threw 84.2 innings.
In 2012 he threw 104.1 innings.
In 2013 he threw 108 innings.
In 2014 he threw 99.2 innings.
So I ask again. Is it reasonable to expect that the Cardinals really feel comfortable letting Martinez throw 170 innings when he’s never thrown 110-innings in a season as a professional? Is it reasonable to expect them to allow him to increase his innings pitched mark by 70 this season? Not in my world.
I’m not doubting the veracity of Rosenthal’s report, I’m merely stating the opinion that whomever told Ken about those innings pitched targets is off his/her rocker. Keep that in mind if you own either righty, especially if you play in a head-to-head league.
INJURIES
Bryce Harper isn’t playing Thursday because of his leg which was hit with a cramp Wednesday. There isn’t much concern about this current situation but I’ll toss it out there. Harper is starting to come down with a few nagging injuries, and as great as he’s been this season I would be remiss if I didn’t remind you that he’s dealt with injuries the past we’ve yet to see him appear in 140 games in a season and the last two campaigns he didn’t make it to 120 games played. Just a reminder.
Jaime Garcia is likely to make his next start but he suffered a cramp in his left groin Wednesday night and had to leave the game after pitching one run ball over seven innings. That’s the warning shot across the bow. Deal him while he’s still relatively healthy.
Lance Lynn (forearm strain) is back after missing two starts (Ted Lyons was sent to Triple-A). Lynn has a 4-4 record with a 3.07 ERA and 1.30 WHIP through 12 starts as he’s struck out 77 guys in 73.1 innings. He’s been, well, Lance Lynn.
Dustin Pedroia was placed on the DL with a hamstring strain, and Pedroia plainly said he had never pulled a muscle so badly that he was forced to miss an extended period of time, so he was a bit nervous about how long it will take him to recover. Pedroia is hitting .306 with nine homers, 33 RBIs and 34 runs scored and looking solid at the dish, so this is a tough blow for the Sox. Deven Marrero is likely to see some time at second but perhaps the club will use Brock Holt there (he’s starting at second Thursday). Holt continues to produce with a .306/.399/.467 slash line, though two homers and four steals through 56 games don’t give him an overwhelming amount of excitement in traditional 5x5 fantasy game.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday at 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).