Contact Rates Matter

WHAT IS CONTACT RATE?

Contact rate is simply putting the bat on the baseball. Very simple to figure out it is as well.

(AB-K)/AB

Simple. Eloquent. Sometimes those are the best measures.

WHAT IS THE LEAGUE AVERAGE?

The league average has been dwindling the past few years as more and more “sluggers” take the field, and strike out with reckless abandon.

As you can see, the number is slowing coming down, and last season was the worst mark of the last seven years.

A QUICK KEY

It’s not common for a player to consistently hit .300 if they don’t have a mark of at least 0.85.

The two middle columns have a wide dispersal of possible outcomes.

If a player is at 0.69 or worse the odds are low a player will hit even .250 consistently.

WHY DOES IT MATTER?

Doesn’t hitting the ball matter? We poo-poo strikeouts saying things like “everyone does it,” but it’s not a good thing. It ain’t. Nothing positive comes from failing to make contact (other than maybe failing to ground into a double-play). A guy might mash homers – I’m looking at you Chris Carter, Mike Napoli, Chris Davis types – but are they really a “good” hitters? Not really. Putting the bat on the ball gives you massive amounts of positive outcomes (a hit, an error, moving a runner over etc.) whereas there are hardly any when you fail to make contact on a swing.

Ultimately, contact rate is extremely useful when attempting to analyze a batters batting average potential.

2016 NUMBERS

Here are some numbers to know.

*Minimum 502 plate appearances.

Joe Panik hit over .300 his first two seasons before dealing with injury woes last season. He should rebound.

Iglesias hit over .300 the previous two season before dealing with injury woes last season.

Daniel Murphy, Jose Altuve, Jose Ramirez, Adrian Beltre, Martin Prado, Dustin Pedroia, Melky Cabrera (.296), Yadier Molina, Brandon Phillips (.291), Buster Posey (.288), Albert Pujols (.268), Yunel Escobar and Ender Inciarte (.292) make up the top-16 men in contact rate last season. Every man listed without a number next to his name hit .300. Of the 16 only one hit two hit less than .290 and only one hit less than .287. Again, a high contact rate portends an impressive batting average.

Batters under the 0.76 league average mark last season.

0.75 – Mike Trout, Matt Kemp

0.74 – Kris Bryant, Ian Desmond, Paul Goldschmidt

0.73 – Wil Myers, Dexter Fowler

0.72 – George Springer, Mark Trumbo, J.D. Martinez

0.71 – Freddie Freeman, Jake Lamb

0.70 – Jonathan Villar, Khris Davis, Justin Upton

Now the batters that didn’t qualify for the batting title.

*Less than 400 at-bats.  

The first thing you notice if you scan this list is that it’s pretty much devoid of power. The top-17 men in this grouping... nary one hit 15 homers.

Ben Revere had a disappointing season, but he still made contact at an elite rate.

Matt Holliday wasn’t his normal self last season, and will never be again. Still, he’s far from someone to completely ignore on draft day. There are still skills present if he can stay healthy.

Trea Turner’s 0.81 mark was solid indeed, but it’s yet another reason to believe his batting average will be closer to .290 this season than the batting mark he posted last season (.342).

Justin Bour had a much higher mark than one would think given his apparent approach/swing. Something to keep in mind with the Marlins’ first sacker.

0.71 – Michael Conforto’s star is on the fall.

0.70 – Yasmani Grandal better keep hitting homers.

0.65 – Tyler Naquin isn’t going to repeat what he did last season. See his Player Profile.

0.65 – Trevor Story... oh hell you know my position by now.

0.60 – Byron Buxton simply must make better contact to take advantage of his elite base running skills.