Avoid Injury-Prone Players

Life is hard. We all know it. Even in the best of times there’s that little voice in our head saying something like, “Don’t go all-in. You know something bad is gonna happen soon.” At least I feel that way with my pessimistic view of life. After all, the glass really is half empty, even if it is half full.

Fantasy baseball is much the same way. Just when you think you’ve got the game figured out, something happens which causes you to pause and then note, even if only to yourself, that you simply don’t have all the answers. ‘Tis life. ‘Tis fantasy baseball.

Life is full of ups and downs.

There are always positives and negatives.

Cheese tastes great.

You need to embrace chance/risk.

The new Wonder Woman movie is going to be fantastic.

Stephen Strasburg will end up hurt.

That last one is, of course, the only one that matters for this piece, so let me apologize for my digression.

The point I was intending to make, though it’s taken me more than 150 words to get there, is that wining in fantasy baseball is extremely difficult. It’s six months, grinding daily. There are trades, waiver-wire additions, injuries, call-ups, in-season daily/weekly roster management and more. The game is hard enough to win when you do everything right. So why would you make it harder on yourself? Why would you do anything, even something small, if it made it more difficult for you to emerge victorious? You’re trying to win. It’s why you purchased this Draft Guide; why you follow us at Fantasy Alarm. You want us to guide you down a path that leads to victory, so let us do that. One of the ways we will accomplish this fact is to tell you...

Do not to count on injury-prone players. Just don’t do it.

There is too much uncertainty with player performance and opportunity to begin with. If you add poor health into that mix, how can you possibly hope to win?

Last season there were 36,893 days lost to the disabled list last season according to Baseball Heat Maps. That is a ton, ain’t it? There were 571 players who spent time on the disabled list. Here’s how it breaks down.

We all have to deal with injuries, so why put yourself at a deficit by rostering injury-prone players?

Of course, context matters.

If you take an injury-prone Cameron Maybin as your fifth outfielder? OK, that’s fine.

If you take Stephen Strasburg in the fourth round to be your ace, well, we have a problem then.

Understand, simply, that you have to be on the field to produce. I know that’s stupid to write, but you would be amazed as to how many folks miss this simple truism. Do yourself a favor and try your best to avoid players who cannot consistently stay on the diamond.

In what follows, I’ll list some of the most injury-prone players who you should be extremely cautious about come Draft Day. Not that they need to be completely avoided if the price is right, but exercising a carefulness with all of them is warranted.

HITTERS

Kyle Blanks... come on. Just wanted to be funny to start the list.

Lorenzo Cain has averaged 123 games the past four seasons and has never appeared in 141 games.

Yoenis Cespedes has failed to appear in 136 games in three of his five MLB seasons.

Michael Brantley was coming back from shoulder woes and supposed to be able to play early last season. Didn’t happen. In the end, he appeared in just 11 games and then needed a second surgery on his shoulder. He’s supposed to be ready for the start of the season in 2017. Can’t see why anyone would believe that at this point.

Yan Gomes used to be a thing. He’s not anymore. He missed 42 days with a knee issue in 2014 and 77 days with a shoulder issue last season.

Matt Holliday can still hit a bit (.782 OPS), but at 37 years of age and coming off seasons of 73 and 110 games, well, you know what to do here.

Brett Lawrie has missed at least 30 days with injuries in 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2016. The last three years it was more than 60 days each time.

Cameron Maybin had a jacked thumb and a broken wrist last season. He appeared in 94 games, a fourth-straight season of fewer than 115 games.

Devin Mesoraco was coming back from a jacked-up hip last season that cost him more than four months in 2015. For some reason people ignored my advice and drafted him last season. He went out and missed 154 days. He had surgery on his hip and shoulder after his season was over. Don’t make the same mistake again this season as you did last year.

A.J. Pollock jacked-up his elbow last season and missed about five months. He had already hurt the elbow before and that brings up more concern. Also note that he missed more than three months with a broken hand in 2014. A great talent, but it’s certainly looking like his 2015 will go down as a career best season... by a lot.

Yasiel Puig has missed like 100 days the last two seasons with hamstring issues. He’s also a complete an utter moron. Uber-talented, but he’s a dart throw; nothing more, at this point.

Josh Reddick has missed at least two months of action with injury in three of his last four seasons.

Michael Saunders missed 74 days in 2014 and then 168 days in 2015. Saunders, who appeared in 87 games in those two seasons nearly doubled that mark last season at 140, a career best. He doesn’t run anymore (five steals in three years) and even last season his knee was barking for a good portion of the campaign.

Jorge Soler has missed two months in each of the last two seasons, due to injuries to his oblique, ankle and hamstring. All the injuries are to his left leg by the way.

Steve Souza saw action in 110 games in 2015 (fractured hand, cut finger). He was out there for 120 games last year (left hip). The soon to be 28 year old is on the cusp of failing.

Giancarlo Stanton; you can read all about him in his Player Profile.

Trevor Story had surgery to repair the UCL in his thumb. He should be fine, but sometimes it takes a good deal of time for players to get their strength back after that surgery.

Devon Travis missed over 100 days with shoulder woes in 2015. He started 2016 slowly as he was still recovering from surgery and he missed more than 50 days.

Ryan Zimmerman... you know the deal and have no possible avenue to bitch about his struggles.

PITCHERS

*Any pitcher coming back from Tommy John surgery. You can read more about those arms in our Tommy John surgery article. You cannot trust them to pile up innings or to be as effective as they were prior to surgery.

Brett Anderson --- a laughable option.

Andrew Bailey might see some ninth-inning time this season. Not gonna last.

Brandon Beachy’s elbow is trashed.

Matt Cain threw for 184 innings in seven-straight seasons. Over each of the last three years, he hasn’t reached 95 innings.

Carlos Carrasco has never thrown 185 innings in the bigs, and has only one season in seven years where he’s thrown more than 150 innings. He turns 30 in March and is coming back from a fractured metacarpal bone in his pitching hand.

Gerrit Cole has one season of 140 innings in the bigs. Throw out his rookie season, fine, but that’s still two times in the last three seasons where he’s failed to reach 140. Last year he dealt with elbow and triceps issues causing a good deal of concern.

Yu Darvish missed 61 games in 2014 with elbow and neck issues. He missed 2015 with Tommy John surgery. Last year he threw 100.1 innings giving him a total of 244.2 innings over the last three seasons. He also missed time last year with a shoulder issue.

Jaime Garcia. Come on. You know about his woes by now.

Rich Hill threw only 110.1 innings last season as he was constantly injured. The 110.1 innings were actually the most he’s thrown since.... 2007. I’m seriously (says Cartman). Let me write that again. In 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 Rich Hill failed to throw 60 innings in any season. From 2008-15 Rich Hill threw 182 big-league innings. From 2010 to 2016, a span of seven seasons, Hill started 24 big-league games. Good luck if you’re counting on Rich Hill in 2017.

Francisco Liriano has one season of 165 innings over the last six years. He has hit 156 frames in five-straight for a little glimmer of hope. A little.

Steven Matz is never healthy, and last season he dealt with elbow and shoulder issues. He has proven incapable of throwing 180 innings. He’s proven it. Talent or not, you cannot count on him to take the ball 30 times.

James Paxton missed 115 games with a strained back in 2014. In 2015 he missed 1,005 days with a finger issue. Last season he missed 16 days with a bruised elbow. Always seems to be something with him.

David Phelps has missed at least 33 days with injury in each of the last four seasons. Don’t reach for last year’s production which was impressive.

Drew Pomeranz threw 170.2 innings last season. He threw his curveball 39-percent of the time, more than anyone, and his track record is filled with an inability to rack up innings. Pomeranz last threw 120 innings in 2012 and barely tossed 200 innings in 2014-15 as he spent a lot of time in the bullpen.

Garrett Richards blew his knee out in 2014 and had to have surgery as his season ended after 168.2 frames. He remarkably returned to throw 207.1 innings in 2015. Last year, though, he tossed just 34.2 innings due to an elbow issue. The reports are positive as I write this, but note that rest rarely works when Tommy John surgery is indicated. Richards worked hard in his rehab, had platelet-rich plasma injections and hopes to avoid surgery. That’s the hope. Even if he stays healthy, he’s going to be on a pitch count/innings limit as the team tries to protect his arm.

Stephen Strasburg – whatever. I’ve never really pushed him on anyone. He’s always hurt. You know that by now or you’ve been living in a hole. Strasburg has failed to last 148 innings over the last two seasons and only twice in five years has he qualified for the ERA title (162 frames). Simply too expensive.