Average Bases Allowed

Every year I try; every year I fail. I try to explain why there is a relatively simple, straightforward way to understand pitcher performance that is, in fact, a more accurate explanation of how pitchers perform. I understand that change is hard. I get it. I truly do. But perhaps 2017 will be the year people see the light. Let’s get to replacing WHIP, shall we?

Average Bases Allowed, or ABA, is an innovative way to look at pitcher’s effectiveness and it is designed to replace WHIP (Walks + Hits / IP). At the least, I would settle for it to be used alongside WHIP at the start, but I’m telling you folks that ABA is a much better way to look at hurlers, and it is very simple to compute. What spawned the idea of ABA? My desire for a measure more precise than WHIP. An example to illustrate the point:

Pitcher A allows one hit and one walk in two innings.
Therefore his WHIP is 1.00 (two base runners in two IP).

Pitcher B allows one hit and one walk in two innings.
Therefore, his WHIP is 1.00 (two base runners in two IP).

According to WHIP, both pitchers have performed the same. However, does that mean they were both equally effective in the real world? What if we added a bit more depth to our example by describing the type of hits each pitcher allowed? How would that look?

Pitcher A: Allowed a walk and a single in his two innings.
Pitcher B: Allowed a walk and a home run in his two innings.

Therefore…

It is reasonable to posit that Pitcher A had an ERA of zero, especially if each player to reach base was in a separate inning.

Pitcher B allowed a homer so his ERA has to be at least 4.50 ERA (one run in two innings). If Pitcher B walked a guy and then gave up a home run to the next batter, or in the same inning, he would have allowed two runs in two innings pushing his ERA up to 9.00.

While the hurlers may have the same WHIP, the result of their performances in the real world would have been drastically different if judged by the runs they allowed. Isn’t that what really matters, how many runs a pitcher allows?

Instead of using hits and walks as WHIP does, ABA replaces hits with total bases allowed. We can all agree there is a difference between a single and a homer right (or double/triple)? Why not try to utilize that information when judge pitcher’s performance? Think of it this way. Is it more important to know how many batters are allowed to reach base or is it more important to know how many bases they received when they reached base?

Exactly.

Here is the formula for ABA.

ABA = (TBA + BB) / IP

Let’s dig into things a bit by looking at two NL hurlers who had nearly identical WHIP marks in 2016 in Carlos Martinez (1.22) and Bartolo Colon (1.21).

Martinez: 128 singles, 25 doubles, 1 triple, 15 homers in 195.1 innings

Colon: 134 singles, 36 doubles, 6 triples, 24 homers in 191.2 innings

Remember, according to WHIP, the pitchers were a mere hundredth apart in WHIP. They were not equal according to ABA.

Martinez: 241 total bases + 70 BBs in 195.1 IP = ABA

Colon: 320 total bases + 32 BBs in 191.2 IP = ABA

Martinez had an ABA of 1.59 in 2016.

Colon had an ABA of 1.84 in 2016.

Martinez and Colon were not equal in 2016... even though WHIP says they were. That’s why ABA is so valuable. It takes the analysis to the next level, gives you just a bit more insight, and the result is that it shows you which pitchers are more effective (in this case, clearly it was Martinez).

How do you read ABA? Like WHIP, the lower the ABA the better, but ABA is not read on the same continuum as WHIP. Here is a key you can employ for ABA.

Below 1.55: elite level performance
1.55-1.75: All-Star level
1.75-1.90: Solid major leaguer worthy of counting on in fantasy
1.91-2.10: Barley holding on to an role as a weekly fantasy starter.
2.11 and up: Might as well line up a pitching machine for hitters

Here are the league averages the past three seasons.

As you can see, hitters are gaining on pitchers quickly, and the rise in power, SLG has gone from .386 to .405 to .417 the last three seasons, causing ABA to rise significantly.

A final note on a weakness of Average Bases Allowed. ABA loves itself some ground ball action. Here is why. A home run is four total bases, the same total as four singles. Therefore, the guys that keep the ball in the yard and don't give up bombs are likely to finish a bit higher than you might expect. Keep in mind that the long ball can be particularly detrimental to relievers who give up a few too many in short order since they don't have enough innings to offset the short-term effect.

Let’s look at hurlers, broken down by innings pitched groupings.

160+ INNINGS PITCHED

Kyle Hendricks led the league in ERA at 2.13. He also led the league in ABA. Not surprising given his ground ball tendencies and lack of walks.

Did you notice that the top-3 men were all Cubs? Yep, they were.

So much for Cueto not being able to rebound after a down September/October in 2015.

Porcello is ranked 5^th. Remember the caveat about the groundball and ABA, but it should also be pointed out that Porcello simply doesn’t beat himself with the free pass.

Scherzer had a dynamic 0.97 WHIP, but his ABA didn’t keep up. Why? He was battered by the home run ball (31 homers, 6^th worst in baseball).

Martinez didn’t allow many homers, see above, and that allowed him to match Verlander in ABA though Verlander had an advantage of 0.22 in the WHIP category.

Estrada had an impressive 1.12 WHIP, but like Scherzer the homer caused his ABA to be higher than expected.

Sabathia was actually a passable option last season. He posted a mark better than Odorizzi and Archer.

The League Average was 1.94.

Before you get all excited about Ivan Nova, realize his mark was 2.00 which was, obviously, worse than the league average (and remember, ABA favors ground ballers which should cause serious concern before you go all in on Nova). Others you might be tempted to roster, though their ABA was worse than league average last season, follow:

Carlos Rodon 2.01
Adam Wainwright 2.02
Robbie Ray 2.12
Francisco Liriano 2.15

100-159 INNINGS PITCHED

Kershaw was the best pitcher in baseball last season even though he didn’t throw 150-innings. The guy walked 11 batters all season long, eleven, and he nearly had an ABA under 1.00, something we don’t even see with relievers.

Hill was great when on the hill, but come on.

Devenski pitched remarkably well last season and even with a starting spot, or a closing role, he was still a solid value play in mixed leagues.

Guerra/Montgomery are surprising names near the top of the list. Guerra though, totally out of nowhere. So hard to trust him. We say it all the time in fantasy football, don’t chase points. Kinda feel the same way with Guerra in 2017.

A bit further down, 12^th, was Miguel Gonzalez. That mark of 1.72 was better than guys like Carrasco (1.85), Salazar (1.88), King Felix (1.90) and Cole (1.91). That’s truly amazing.

Conley, everyone wanted last season, but there were as many downs as ups last season. His ABA was a direct match for the league average.

Zack Greinke was below the league average, this a year after he led the league in ABA (1.16). Injuries played a part, though his performance was still wanting when he was on the field. Gotta expect a rebound, even though not all the way back to greatness.

Dylan Bundy will likely have a lot of heat behind him this spring, but note that ABA isn’t a fan of what happened last season (2.06).

Jordan Zimmermann (2.14) and Michael Wacha (2.16) failed miserably last season and enter 2017 with huge question marks. Only for those with a high risk tolerance are these two righties in 2017.

Sonny Gray? I’m still a fan, will be writing about it, but I will just leave you with his ABA of 2.25. Wow was he atrocious.

50-99 INNINGS PITCHED

The top-4 closers in baseball were the top-4 in ABA.

Miller in the 5^th spot was expected.

What wasn’t is Otero. Just 10 free passes all season long, and he barely gave up a base per inning with the bat.

Bush finally found himself after years of struggle.

Reed will see saves early on with the whole Jeruys Familia situation. Reed pitched extremely well last season in case you missed it.

Law won’t close after the Giants added Melancon, but if called upon he likely could have success.

Kimbrel ain’t what he once was, but he’s still effective. His mark still blew doors on A.J. Ramos who was up at 1.53.

Raisel Iglesias and Edwin Diaz both had marks of 1.59.

Hector Neris walked 30 batters in 80.1 innings, but he dominated when not walking batters leading to a 1.61 mark, four hundredths better than Francisco Rodriguez.

Ryan Madson had a 1.76 ABA. If he pitches like that again he will have a tough time reaching  30 saves again.

David Robertson really struggled with walks last season – 32 in 62.1 innings – leading to a 1.83 ABA.

Ken Giles dominated last in the year, but his early season struggles led to a mark that was one hundredth worse than the league average at 1.95.

Speaking of walk issues... Blake Snell walked 51 in 89 innings leading to a poor 2.00 mark. It’s imperative that he throws more strikes, an absolute must.

Pretty surprised that Lance McCullers had a 2.00 mark. Great talent, but health and consistency are concerns (what was up with those 45 walks in 81 innings?).

Zach Elfin had a 2.29 mark. So much for having interest in him this year.

Jose Berrios was at 2.74. I don’t even know how that is possible. So much talent, yet absolutely no production. #ImpossibleToHavePredictedOrBeBelieved

FEWER THAN 50 INNINGS PITCHED

Bedrosian could see plenty of time in the Angels 9^th inning this season, and he has the arm to succeed.

Davis wasn’t at his normal great level, but he was still a tremendous performer.

Ottavino looks primed for late inning success with the Rockies this season.

Cotton had a nice run in September and is an intriguing prospect in 2017. Just four walks as he threw darts with that special changeup.

Reyes is primed for a big 2017, provided that the Cardinals allow him to start since they have like 73 starting pitching options.

Joaquin Benoit (1.67) and Koji Uehara (1.68) are old, but they can still get men out.

Corey Knebel has a huge arm, but if he wants to rack up saves this season he simply must improve on the 1.93 mark he posted last year.