Average Bases Allowed

When is one not one? I’m simply asking when is one not necessarily equivalent to one? If you are interested in riddles, or just want to know what the hell I’m talking about, please read on.

Average Bases Allowed, or ABA, is an innovative way to look at pitcher’s effectiveness and is designed to replace WHIP (Walks + Hits / IP), though I would settle for it to be used alongside WHIP since I know change can be hard for some folks (I still have a house phone if you can believe it). What spawned the idea of ABA? My desire for a more precise measurement than WHIP. An example:

Pitcher A allows one hit and one walk in two innings. Therefore his WHIP is 1.00 (two base runners in two IP).

Pitcher B allows one hit and one walk in two innings. Therefore his WHIP is 1.00 (two base runners in two IP).

According to WHIP, both pitchers have performed the same. However, does that mean that they were both equally effective? What if we added a bit more depth to our example by describing the type of hits that each pitcher allowed?
Pitcher A: Allowed a walk and a single in his two innings. Pitcher B: Allowed a walk and a home run in his two innings.

Therefore…

It is reasonable to posit that Pitcher A had an ERA of zero. After all he gave up only two bases in his two innings. However, Pitcher B’s ERA was at least 4.50. Why? If he allowed a solo shot it would have plated a run leading to a 4.50 ERA (one run in two innings). If Pitcher B walked a guy and then gave up a home run to the next batter he would have allowed two runs in two innings – hence his ERA would be 9.00. While the hurlers may have the same WHIP, the result of their performances in the real world would have been drastically different if judged by the runs they allowed. Because of this simple yet often overlooked fact, I wanted to try and find a way in which I could analyze a pitcher’s performances in a more equitable/descriptive way. Instead of using hits and walks as does WHIP, I decided to use total bases allowed and walks (because WHIP leaves out things like hit by pitch, I made the decision to do the same with ABA). Why replace hits with total bases?

Is it more important to know how many batters are allowed to reach base or is it more important to know how many bases they received when they reached base?

Here is the formula for ABA.

ABA = (TBA + BB) / IP

Let’s take a look at a concrete example to illustrate. Dallas Keuchel and James Shields both posted a WHIP of 1.18 in 2014. If that was all we had to judge them by we would have to say that they were similar hurlers. Let's dig a bit deeper and look at the type of hits that each hurler gave up.

Keuchel: 136 singles, 38 doubles, 2 triples, 11 homers 
Shields: 148 singles, 46 doubles, 7 triples, 23 homers 

Remember, according to WHIP both pitchers were equal with a 1.18 mark. They are not equal according to ABA. 

Keuchel: 262 total bases + 48 BBs in 200 IP = 1.55 ABA
Shields: 353 total bases + 44 BBs in 227 IP = 1.75 ABA

Though WHIP says these two hurlers were the same pitcher, ABA hints that Keuchel was a better performer in 2014. WHIP doesn’t tell the whole story and while ABA may not either, it certainly is a more accurate gauge of how a pitcher has performed. How do you read ABA? Like WHIP, the lower the ABA the better, but it doesn’t read the same was as WHIP. Whereas the average WHIP last season was 1.28 the league average ABA of pitchers in 2014 was 1.79.

Here is a key you can employ for ABA: 
Below 1.55: elite level performance
1.55-1.75: All-Star level
1.75-1.90: Solid major leaguer worthy of counting on in fantasy
1.91-2.10: Barely holding on to a role as a weekly fantasy starter
2.11 and up: Might as well line up a pitching machine

A final note. ABA loves itself some ground ball action. If we're talking total bases, a homer is the same total as four singles. Therefore, the guys that keep the ball in the yard and don't give up bombs are likely to finish a bit higher than you might expect. The long ball can be particularly detrimental to relievers who give up a few too many in short order since they don't have enough innings to offset the short-term effect. 

160 INNINGS PITCHED
 

While Kershaw at the top is obvious, Richards as the best performer in the AL is not. Richards allowed five homers in 2014. He can't repeat that rate, but if his leg is healthy he should be successful with his stuff though a significant regression is on the horizon.

Whereas Roark and Gray both recorded poor marks in SWIP both excelled in ABA. Still concerned am I.

Jose Quintana posted a mark of 1.63, just off the leader board. An intriguing add who won't cost an obnoxious amount in 2015. Another young hurler with the same ABA in 2014 was Chris Archer. All he needs to do is to cut down on the free passes to take the next step.

Josh Collmenter had the same mark as Stephen Strasburg at 1.65. Really he did.

Henderson Alvarez had only 111 Ks in 187 innings and in 5x5 setups his value will be limited because of the lack of whiffs.
However, ABA is a fan, as Alvarez had a mark of 1.66, the same as Max Scherzer. Keep the ball on the ground young man. 

When in doubt favor the power arm. That's why I would still take Yordano Ventura (1.75) light years before guys like Kyle Gibson (1.72) and Alfredo Simon (1.73).

Check out Bartolo Colon (1.78) posting a better number than Ian Kennedy (1.79). You still want Kennedy for 2015, by a lot. 

BIG LEAGUE AVERAGE IN 2014: 1.79.

With the trade to the Yankees everyone is excited about Nathan Eovaldi. You can't teach 95 mph but his 1.83 ABA, lack of start-to-start consistency and the move to the AL should dampen your expectations a bit.

Shelby Miller disappointed in many respects in 2014 including ABA (1.84).

The Giants brought back Jake Peavy. Even with his success last year his 1.90 mark is underwhelming to say the least.

Justin Verlander was scary bad last season at 2.00. He's lost "it." There's no return to greatness coming. Ain't happening. His ABA was worse than Kyle Kendrick (1.98) and Roberto Hernandez (2.00) for goodness sakes. Moreover, only five men who threw 160-innings in 2014 were worse: Eric Stults, Hector Noesi, Travis Wood, John Danks and Colby Lewis (2.27).

80-159 INNINGS PITCHED

The Betances number isn't shocking, but check out the 1.25 mark of Arrieta. If he had recorded 10 more outs and maintained that mark, Jake would have come in as the second best pitcher in baseball according to ABA.

Hendricks, remember the ground ball thing I noted earlier, is at #4 on this list. I would strongly suggest that in this instance you be careful not to overvalue his effort. Forty-seven strikeouts in 80.1 innings is a poor number, and it's debatable if four homers in 80.1 innings is a repeatable pace. It likely isn't.

McHugh struck out more than a batter per inning and is the first man on the list to allow more than seven homers. He was taken deep 13 times.

Stroman isn't getting the love that other young arms are, but he should have your full attention.

Maness, Wacha and Carlos Martinez (1.80) were all in the top-31 while Joe Kelly, an ex Cardinal, was 30th.

It should be noted that this is an area of arms, in the 80-159 innings pitched range, that includes some dicey work. Did you pick up that Martinez was 31st in this group but that his ABA was already over the league average of 1.79? Here are some other numbers. Among hurlers who threw between 80-159 innings, 30 had a mark at or below the league average. There were 14 others that had a mark between 1.80 and 1.90. Then it starts getting dicey. 24 arms were between 1.91 and 2.10. There were 12 men who had a mark worse than 2.10. Overall there were 82 arms in this innings pitched range. Thirty had a mark better than league average while 52 were worse.

40-79 INNINGS PITCHED
 

Davis allowed no homers in 72 innings. Flippin' amazing.

Don't think Miller was worth the four-year contract he got from the Yankees but he was the second best lefty in baseball last season according to ABA.

Smith has a boring name but he gets the job done.

Benoit should have been a closer for a few years now.

Abad is a name you don't know. You should get to know it, though a closing opportunity isn't likely to be in the cards, limiting his fantasy outlook. 

Storen appears ready to take over the 9th inning for the Nationals.

Rondon closes out the top-20 but Pedro Strop comes in 21st. Another Cubs arm, Neil Ramirez, was 36th at 1.40. 

Darren O'Day (1.31) is one of the better middle relievers in baseball. Ditto Tyler Clippard (1.34). 

Luke Gregerson (1.45) will get some 9th inning run with the Astros despite Neshek having the 7th best mark in baseball last year. 

Despite stuff that allowed him to rack up 96 Ks in 64.1 innings, new White Sox closer David Robertson had an ABA mark of 1.53, just 54th best in baseball. That mark was slightly better than Koji Uehara (1.54) who saw his production dip late in the year as he was removed from the 9th inning. The overall numbers suggest strength for Koji, but age and continual health concerns dog him (he turns 40 in April and has the same b-day as my brother, Jeff). 

Cody Allen and Kenley Jansen had lower marks than one would expect. Both were at 1.55. Rafael Soriano was worse at 1.61, Steve Cishek was worse yet at 1.62 and Fernando Rodney came in with a 1.63 mark. The closer market gets more concerning though when we talk about Francisco Rodriguez (1.69), Trevor Rosenthal (1.71) and Casey Janssen (1.75) while the following closers were below the league average: Glen Perkins (1.85), Joe Nathan (1.95) and Addison Reed (2.02).

Somehow Reed allowed 11 homers in 59.1 innings. That won't happen again.

Finally, a few arms to be very apprehensive about in 2015: Tony Cingrani (2.29), Rafael Montero (2.37), Dan Straily (2.38) and CC Sabathia (2.43).