2022 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide - MLB DFS Contest Selection Strategies

Contest selection is one of the most important yet overlooked aspects of DFS Baseball. Understanding what type of contest you are in and what contests are available will go a long way in determining your success in daily fantasy. Some contests carry more risk than others and the roster that you construct should be dependent on the type of contests that you are entering. Let’s look at the most common DFS contests for MLB:
CASH GAMES
Cash games are generally Double-Ups and 50/50 contests. The winners in Cash-Type games will normally double their investment (minus the 10% or so rake that the site keeps). Cash games do not require a lineup with a huge score, just enough to beat 50% of the field. So, in an 80-person Double-Up, the player that finishes 40th will receive the same amount of prize money as the player that finished in the first place.
Cash games are the “security blanket” of most DFS players. Bankrolls are built off cash games and as will be discussed in an upcoming Bankroll Management article the rule of thumb is that players should play 80% of their daily investment in Cash games and 20% in the riskier GPPs.
Consistency and minimizing risk are the key to cash games. You do not need risky plays since you are only trying to finish in the top 50 percent. Look for players with high floors that get on base and hit near the top of the order. Paying up for good pitching is another cash game strategy, especially for pitchers who are the heaviest favorites with the lowest run total against strikeout-heavy teams.
GUARANTEED PRIZE POOL (GPP)
So, do you ever go on Twitter and see people posting big DFS money wins? Those huge prizes come from Guaranteed Prize Pool contests or GPPs. In GPPs usually, 20% or less of the lineups playing will win money (compared to 50% in Cash games) with the top finishers gaining the biggest percentage of the prize pool. GPPs carry much more risk than the other type of contests but also have higher payouts- high risk and high reward. There are mass multi-entry GPPs where players can enter up to 150 lineups in a single contest and then GPPs that are capped at a lower number of entries. The popular limit entry GPPs are 20-entry max, four-entry max, three-entry max, and single-entry max contests. While the big multi-entry GPPs are more like a lottery and take a little luck to take down a huge prize the single-entry GPPs are popular since it puts you on a more level playing field with everyone only allowed to enter one lineup.
If you want to win real money at DFS then GPPs are the route. Just know that there will be immense swings compared to the safety of Cash games. You are going to lose on more nights than you win but if you play the contests right your wins will more than makeup for the losses. GPP strategy is for the long-term players that have a long-term process.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
This contest is self-explanatory. It’s you against another player. The highest score wins the total of the entry fees. You may want to take a little more risk than large field Double-Ups but not as much as in GPPs as you just want to separate yourself a little bit from your opponent.
MULTIPLIERS
Multipliers are a combination of Cash games and GPPs. You can play 2X (like 50/50 or Double Ups), 3X, 5X, and even 10X. The higher the multiplier, the higher that you need to finish to cash but the payouts are fixed based on your buy-ins. These contests can be profitable but risky so you would be using GPP-type builds.
Player News
Trea Turner went 4-for-4 with an RBI double Tuesday in the Phillies 7-6 win over the Nationals.
Turner was hoping to make it 5-for-5 in the ninth, but the game ended on a wild pitch while he was at the plate. Turner’s offensive effort barely made up for a couple of late misplays on defense. José Alvarado bailed him out after the first, and the rest of the offense picked him up in the ninth after his error preceded three unearned runs. Turner has seven hits the last two days, raising his average from .245 to .290.
Zack Wheeler pitched 6 2/3 innings of two-run ball Tuesday in a no-decision against the Nationals.
Wheeler struck out seven and walked one against his old nemesis, and he was in line to move to 15-15 against the Nationals in his career before a blown save in the ninth (he doesn’t have more than eight losses against any other team). Wheeler has allowed exactly two runs in each of his last three starts and is 2-1 with a 3.48 ERA overall. It’s unclear right now whether he’ll make his next start Sunday against the Diamondbacks or get pushed back to Tuesday versus the Rays.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. will undergo further testing on his right oblique during Thursday’s off-day.
Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters there’s some level of concern it could be an injured list situation, but added that Chisholm told him that he feels fine. The 27-year-old fantasy stalwart was lifted from Tuesday’s game against the Orioles with right flank discomfort. He’s unlikely to play in Wednesday afternoon’s matinee in Baltimore. There should be some clarity on his status heading into Friday’s series opener against the Rays once he’s undergone an MRI to rule out any structural damage.
Going for his first career save in the ninth inning Tuesday, Orion Kerkering gave up four runs — one earned — against the Nationals.
Truly unfortunate for Kerkering, though he did wind up with the win after the Phillies came back with two in the bottom of the ninth. It took two misplays to cause Kerkering’s blown save. After a one-out single by CJ Abrams, James Wood ripped a ball to center. Johan Rojas was in fine position to catch it, but he misjudged the distance, and it went over his head for a double. After that, Kerkering got what should have been a routine groundout, but Trea Turner botched the throw for an error. Kerkering went on to strike out Keibert Ruiz for what could have been the fourth out of the inning, but he then gave up a three-run homer to Nathaniel Lowe. With José Alvarado working the eighth tonight, Kerkering was pitching in the ninth for the first time since last July 26. Even though what happened wasn’t his fault, he might not get another chance anytime soon.
MacKenzie Gore yielded three runs in six innings in a no-decision against the Phillies on Tuesday.
Gore avoided falling to 2-4 after a late comeback, though the Nationals went on to lose anyway. He obviously deserves a better record for being 5-for-7 in quality starts, with both of his misses falling only a little short (3 ER in 5 IP and 4 ER in 6 IP). With six strikeouts and no walks tonight, his K/BB stands an at exceptional 59/9 through 41 innings. If he could keep that up, it’d be the third-highest K:BB in ExpoNats history behind a pair of Max Scherzer seasons.
Kyle Finnegan took a blown save and a loss after giving up two runs in the ninth Tuesday against the Phillies.
Finnegan would have converted the save with no runs in had Keibert Ruiz not whiffed on Dylan Crews’ throw home on what turned out to be a game-tying sac fly. Finnegan then lost the game with a wild pitch. It’s his first defeat and second blown save in 11 chances.