When looking to improve your daily fantasy sports game, solid assessment is just as important as the lineup building process and research. It is easy to use the terms blasted off, or stinks, to describe how a lineup performed, but the key is understanding why. My goal when building a lineup is to have a valid explanation on how it was constructed, and how it will win. I continue to urge everyone that if unsure about why you see or not see a player recommended, that you ask why. After the slate is completed, it is always best to go back and re-assess how it performed. This strategy works for not just your lineups, but others as well. Below is a look at the NFL week six paylines for some top contests.
FanDuel:
NFL Sunday Double Big Up: $5 entry fee, top 12,000 win
https://www.fanduel.com/games/21393/contests/21393-211946895/scoring
The winning lineup scored 188.60 points, with the pay line at 121.94.
The FantasyAlarm Optimal Lineup scored 129.1 points.
News and Notes:
Howard called it, as Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins were both chalk options for this double-up. Watson led the QBs at 63.5% owned, while even more went with Hopkins, at 71.7% owned.
The payline ended up higher than usual due to the large ownership levels. Not just the Houston combo, but Larry Fitzgerald, another top pick by Howard, scored 22.8 FD points for the 31.5% of the lineups he made it on. Not too surprising, but interesting, was Adam Thielen. With Stefon Diggs out, Thielen was on 50.2% of lineups for this double up.
The 39.6% of lineups that went with Mark Ingram were highly-rewarded with his 27.5 FD points, while those that spent $2,600 more with Leonard Fournette were likely happy with another 100 plus rushing yards and a touchdown.
It doesn’t happen too often, but the defense picks made a difference this week. 17% of lineups went with the Ravens, who forced OT due to a pair of special teams TDs, producing 20 total FD points. The majority of lineups hoped for another late night hammer option with the Denver DEF, but those 55.9% of lineups that went that route had to settle for just six FD points as the heavy favorites.
Busts: C.J. Anderson made it on 36.4% of lineups, and managed just 17 rushing yards for those trying to make up late ground in the Sunday night game. If you spent more salary going with Kareem Hunt, his 13.5 points hurt the 32.4% of lineups he was rostered on.
$2M NFL Sunday Million: Top 78,250 win, $500,000 to first.
https://www.fanduel.com/games/21393/contests/21393-211946922/scoring
The winning lineup scored 194.42 points, with the pay line at 120.9.
The FantasyAlarm Optimal Lineup scored 127.96 points.
News and Notes:
The winning lineup won $500,000 having their highest scoring player come from their DEF spot. The Saints DEF scored 33 FD points for the 2% of lineups that took the risk.The Broncos’ DEF remained the popular option for this GPP as well by making it on 31.5% of lineups.
Watson and Hopkins were highly owned still, but not as much as they were for cash games. Watson was on 31.1%, while Hopkins hit at 37.5%.
The winning lineup used four spots from the TB @ARI game, and three from the DET @ NO game. With 161 combined points scored between those two games, the user had the near perfect targets.
A smaller GPP contest, the $50,000 NFL Squib, was a single entry, $1 buy in contest with 59,523 entries. The top score was 186.60 points, with the cash line at 119.14 points. Mark Ingram was only 6% owned for this contest, with Hopkins at 41.2%.
DraftKings:
NFL Sunday Massive Double Up: $25 entry fee. 12,643 entries, top 5,500 win.
https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/46342650
The winning lineup scored 224.7 points, with the pay line at 152.9.
The FantasyAlarm Optimal Lineup pivot option scored 148.54 points (Cashed in $5 double up).
News and Notes:
You’re welcome to play these large double-up contests, but it’s good to know that they are all not unique lineups. For this contest, first place was a single bullet, followed by a 15-team train, then a tie from 17th-316th place.
We saw some crazy high ownership levels this week for cash games on FD, and DK was higher still. Mark Ingram was on 79.25% of lineups. Behind him came the love for the Vikings. Jerick McKinnon was the second-highest owned player, making it onto 68.69% of lineups. Following close behind was Thielen at 64.49%. Those that didn’t take the top-two RB options used Kareem Hunt, who was on 56.03% of lineups. Rounding out the top-five was Hopkins at 45.24%.
QB-wise, Watson was on 31.87% of lineups, but was topped by Drew Brees at 37.85%. Kevin Hogan found some love as the third-most popular QB, but still far behind at 13.15%. No other QB had an ownership level above 4.08%.
While Fitzgerald was highly-owned on FD cash games, he was just 6.46% owned in this double-up. Hopkins and Thielen were the top-two by far, with Julio Jones, Michael Thomas, and Jamison Crowder rounding out your top-five, with Jones far behind those top-two at 23.22%.
Zach Miller was the highest-owned TE at 27.19%, with Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Kyle Rudolph far behind, both checking in on roughly 13% of lineups.
Defense-wise, the Ravens and Falcons were the top-two taken by a large margin at 26.85% and 24.15% (DK does not include the SNF game on their main slate).
NFL $4MM Fantasy Football Millionaire Maker: 235,294 entries.
https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/46316614
The winning lineup scored 231.48, with the pay line at 147.50.
The FantasyAlarm Optimal Lineup scored 140.4.
News and Notes:
The maximum of 150 lineups was entered by 168 people, totalling just over 10.5% of all lineups. The max number of entries means they entered $3,000 worth of lineups. Finishing 51-75th out of the 235,294 entries pays $1,000. Two of the top-six lineups were done by max entries users, including ChipolteAddict, who dominated the DK GPP contests this past Sunday. He finished third in this contest, but took down 11 GPPs, including three seats in the live championship.
The winning lineup didn’t mess around with long shots, as they scored over 95 DK points with their three RBs in Jerick McKinnon, Mark Ingram, and Melvin Gordon. McKinnon and Ingram were two of the top-five owned in this GPP, at 24.01% and 21.04% respectively. Gordon was on less lineups than the Washington DEF, at only 8.82%. Gordon was their lowest owned player.
Although ownership levels were more spread out for this contest, I felt it was interesting to see both Ingram, and Alvin Kamara as the fifth- and sixth-overall highest-owned players in the GPP. If looking at the top-10 owned players, three were from Houston, with two each from the Saints and Vikings.
After news came out that Derek Carr was playing, E.J. Manuel finished on 15 lineups. After being ruled out, DeVante Parker made it onto 16 lineups. Even higher was Mohamed Sanu, who was ruled out for the 75 lineups he was on. The Browns duo of Deshon Kiser and Kenny Britt, both ruled as non-starting or out, finished on 42 and 38 lineups.