2017 Mock Draft Army ADP Trend Report: Feb. 27

With spring games having begun, it’s time to check in with the Mock Draft Army’s Fantasy Baseball ADP Trend Report. Remember, this is all about public perception in the mock draft room. You’ve got a number of MLB beat writers, players and coaches throwing down some inflammatory comments – and again, that’s stuff like, “his fastball is unhittable,” “his curveball is the nastiest I’ve seen,” and “I’m in the best shape of my life.” – which get the hype machine rolling in high-gear and there are far too many fantasy players buying into it, hook, line and sinker.

Now I’m not saying the hype machine is always wrong. There are some situations which should get you excited. But what we try to do here is separate the hype from reality and keep that line from getting too blurry. So enough of the pleasantries, let’s get to it.

ADP Risers

Mike Napoli, 1B TEX (+21.1%) – We actually discussed him in the previous trend report as he appeared in the Fallers section, but that was attributed to the fact that he hadn’t been signed at the time the ADP was tabulated and while there was talk of it, the Rangers had yet to make an official announcement. Well, look at him now! There’s no reason to believe that Napoli is any different from the player he has always been – solid power, high strikeouts, low average – but don’t look for him to pop 30 homers again. With James Loney possibly making the team as well as a crowded outfield, it seems likely that he will be sharing both first base and the DH spot with a few others. He should still be able to rack up 20-25 homers which will make him a decent option at the corner infield spot and strong bench depth in some of your shallower leagues.

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B ARI (+13.8%) – While the ADP trend increase looks substantial, keep in mind that it’s not that big a jump in the actual ADP. What’s happening here is, more people are looking at Goldy as an option at No. 2 overall; top-five really. His power/speed combo is tough to pass up, even that early, especially when you see how quickly the position thins out. He’s still falling to the sixth or seventh pick in some drafts, but the trend should show you that, despite some people’s concerns over a potential speed drop-off, you can’t go wrong with taking him early.

David Price, SP BOS (+9.4%) – Few people are showing any real concern over Price’s ratios from last year and with the increased desire for people to take an ace early, he’s climbing up, ever so slightly. Now, he did have a dip in his velocity and saw his HR/9 increase, but the increased use of his cutter has helped increase his ground ball rate as well. He’s still going to stay in that second tier of starters, but I won’t take him before I take Corey Kluber, Noah Syndergaard or Chris Sale. On the fence with Johnny Cueto, but with some luck, I won’t have to make that decision in any drafts.

Marcus Semien, SS OAK (+9.0%) – Here’s another guy who makes the jump from Fallers to Risers in the span of two weeks as more people are starting to realize his talents are real and while, the numbers are good, not great, he’s a solid option for your middle infield deep into drafts. If you don’t believe me, take a look at the new Player Profile Ray Flowers just wrote up on him.

Jose Peraza, 2B/SS CIN (+7.8%) – This had to be expected as, in the time between these ADP trend reports, Brandon Phillips was traded to the Braves and Peraza stepped into the starting second baseman spot on the Reds depth chart. There’s a lot to like about him (Ray Flowers also hyped him in the 2017 MLB Draft Guide), but let’s remember what happens once the hype machine gets going. Peraza has great speed, solid on-base skills and doesn’t strike out a lot, but you can’t bump him up your draft board too much as he’ll lose that draft value in a hurry and if he does struggle a bit, you’re going to wish you picked up a more-refined player with a better track record.

Other Notable Risers: Lance McCullers (+7.3%), Brandon Kintzler (+6.4%), Keon Broxton (+6.3%)

ADP Fallers

Alex Reyes, SP STL (-44.8%) – Three words: Tommy John surgery. ‘Nuff said.

Mookie Betts, OF BOS (-16.5%) – He’s not falling far and has dropped only to sixth overall, but while the dip in ADP isn’t too significant, you have to wonder why some people are starting to fall out of love with a guy who was considered the consensus No. 2 overall pick. Some even grabbed him ahead of Mike Trout. The bottom line is that people are starting to wonder what the floor is and are inclined to go for a player like Goldschmidt or Nolan Arenado instead. You can’t fault them for their way of thinking, but again, Betts isn’t dropping out of the first half of the first round.

Matt Wieters, C WAS (-15.7%) – This is going to be exactly the same situation as with Napoli. Wieters was only signed last week, so the ADP needs some time to normalize. He should fall right around where Yasmani Grandal and Salvador Perez are going in drafts right now. The Nationals are expected to use him as their primary backstop and the group-think has them eventually trading Derek Norris while they continue to groom Pedro Severino. Until that day comes, though, you should probably expect Norris, a strong pitch-framer, to eat into some of his work.

Ketel Marte, SS ARI (-13.1%) – A quick glance at the Diamondbacks’ depth chart should help you understand this pretty easily. Brandon Drury is penciled in at second base and Chris Owings seems to be their choice at shortstop. Now, both players also play the outfield, so if Chip Hale changes things up or if someone gets hurt (both David Peralta and A.J. Pollock have been known to spend some time on the DL), Marte could find his way into the starting lineup.

Francisco Lindor, SS CLE (-8.9%) – The drop isn’t too substantial and maybe it’s simply a matter of preference, but it’s obviously worth noting. I’ve never been enamored by Lindor and hesitated to draft him as I don’t wholeheartedly believe in the power. I won’t continue to question whether he’s more Orlando Cabrera or Felipe Lopez, but those who are labeling him as a perennial 20-20 player should just pump the brakes a little and see just how consistent a power threat he can be. The speed is there; not doubting that. But I’m not ready to elevate him to the power/speed combo players I usually covet in my drafts.

Other Notable Fallers: Wilson Ramos (-7.9%), Buster Posey (-6.8%), Aledmys Diaz (-6.6%)

Notable New Faces

Dan Vogelbach, 1B SEA (386.42) – Lots of questions regarding the Mariners first baseman as the young lefty-swinging rookie could end up in a straight platoon with Danny Valencia is he struggles against southpaws. Still, for what he will cost you to own, fantasy baseballers in deeper leagues can definitely give him a look late in drafts.

Seth Smith, OF BAL (396.39) – The Orioles have some decisions to make with regard to their corner outfielders and that includes how often they want to use Mark Trumbo in the field. Smith usually finds his way into a platoon, so expect him to see some decent at-bats. He’s got 20-homer power and can help you from the bench. If he starts to see regular time in the field, he could prove to be even more valuable.

Zack Cozart, SS CIN (400.68) – If you’re waiting on the position or just looking for some middle infield depth in a deep league, the trade of Brandon Phillips helped out Cozart almost as much as it helped Peraza. Cozart is no longer looking over his shoulder at Peraza, but that doesn’t mean he’s totally safe. For now, though, it looks like he’ll hold the starting job and has some decent pop in his bat. The average will be real rough though, so beware.

Clay Buchholz, SP PHI (401.06) – You’ve got to be pretty desperate to be drafting Buchholz, but hey…maybe the move to the NL will help him. Hard to imagine him being worse, but the new ballpark obviously doesn’t help.

Andrelton Simmons, SS LAA (401.71) – Great defensive player who just isn’t a a solid fantasy option due to the weak offensive production. His glove helps keep him in the lineup though and we all know how much Mike Scioscia loves good defense, so as a bench player, he could be of some help to your fantasy team.

Mock Draft Army ADP Trend Report