2017 Mock Draft Army ADP Trend Report: Feb 15

Now that the Mock Draft Army has been running drafts for almost a month, it’s time to start monitoring the trends. Remember, ADP is not a ranking system. It is all about public perceptions. Some players see more love than others and the hype-train can be a very dangerous thing if you’re not careful. With spring training officially underway, you’re going to start seeing a ton of overzealous evaluations such as “this guy’s fastball is unhittable this spring,” “his power stroke looks like it’s hitting the next level,” and, of course, everyone’s favorite, “he’s in the best shape of his life.” Inflammatory statements like that are only going to get you into trouble, especially if they’re about a player you have a strong desire to draft.

As I laid out in the MLB Draft Guide article, “Understanding ADP,” you have to use these numbers as a way to help see which players you may have to reach for and which players you can wait for until the later rounds. That’s why I do this trend report. Some of the movement you’ll see will be totally justified, like that of Jose Peraza. You’ll see his current number at 125.89, but since the Brandon Phillips trade, we’ve started to see him go earlier and earlier. In both these and the NFBC mocks, he’s been taken in the mid-80s lately and I had to grab him at No. 83 in the LABR mixed draft as I knew people would be looking to draft him. It’s going to be up to you to look at the trend report and seek out the right answer for why a player’s ADP is rising or falling. Doing your due diligence is how you’re going to have a strong draft. Don’t simply rely on a 140-character tweet.

That being said, let’s take a look at the first ADP Trend Report of the 2017 Mock Draft Army and see what’s going on in the fantasy community’s collective brain. The analysis comes first and then the trend report. Also, here’s a link to the Mock Draft Army ADP to serve as a reference point moving forward.

Risers

Tony Watson, RP PIT (+12.2%) – He’s forever been a set-up man with sporadic closer duty here and there, but with Mark Melancon now in San Francisco, the Pirates are seemingly ready to give Watson a shot at the job. Few managers are inclined to use a lefty closer, but with Antonio Bastardo and Felipe Rivero, both southpaws, expected to be in the bullpen, the Pirates can utilize Watson exclusively in the ninth.

Madison Bumgarner, SP SF (+11.2%) – As the talk of needing an elite starter grows, the ADP of a hurler like MadBum will continue to rise. He’s been both effective and healthy over his big-league career and is considered the No. 3 overall behind Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer. While his ranking among the starters won’t change, his ADP could push to the tail-end of the first round.

David Price, SP BOS (+10.6%) – Everything that I said above with Bumgarner, holds true for Price as well, though he’s never going to see his ADP as high. People don’t seem overly concerned about last season’s struggles and dip in velocity, but you should look to see what he’s clocking on the gun this spring before elevating him too much.

Jake Arrieta, SP CHC (+9.8%) – He’s in a very similar situation as Price, given the drop in numbers across the board for Arrieta last year. Not to diminish the first two years of amazing success he enjoyed with the Cubs, but NL hitters are obviously adjusting to him better. I never thought of him as a pitcher who could maintain those ratios from 2014 and 2015. I definitely saw him more in the mold of what he did last season. Those numbers are rock solid, but I’m not pushing for him to be the ace of my staff.

Rougned Odor, 2B TEX (+9.8%) – We saw some fantastic year-to-year growth with Odor last season and he’s definitely entrenched at the keystone for the Rangers. His climb has been slight but steady as many view him as a top-five second basemen. The power is definitely real, though he’s going to need to learn to be more selective at the plate. His strikeout rate spiked to 21.4-percent last season and his swing rate outside the zone was an ugly 41.8-percent. League average is closer to 30-percent. Pitchers will approach him differently this season, so if he fails to make the adjustments, we could be in for some disappointment. It will then be up to him to fix his game. His ADP in the low-50s seems about right, though he could creep higher if people misread the depth at the position and feel a greater need to reach.

Other notable risers include: Josh Harrison (+8.7%), Yu Darvish (+8.4%), Ketel Marte (+8.1%)

Fallers

Michael Napoli, 1B TEX (-15.6%) – This looks like an odd drop in ADP, but keep in mind that when these drafts started, Napoli was unsigned. He did finally sign with Texas, but then reports hit that it wasn’t a done deal. Look for a rise in the ADP in the next trend report as Napoli’s power and starting job will have more people taking notice when looking for a decent corner infielder. It’d be nice if he remained a super-cheap source for power, but I doubt that lasts.

Brian Dozier, 2B MIN (-13.2%) – Maybe it was the out-of-the-blue jump to 42 home runs last year or maybe it’s the comparisons people are now making to Dan Uggla. Whatever the case may be, there is very little draft love being thrown Dozier’s way. I may not think of him as a 40-homer guy, but there wasn’t anything too outlandish in his numbers last year to indicate that we should expect too much of a drop-off. If he continues to fall, which I doubt will be much further if at all, I’d look to snag him

Marcus Semien, SS OAK (-10.7%) – Just keep this little gem in your back pocket for now. Everybody but me and Ray Flowers hates this guy for some reason. The batting average and OBP suck, but a 20-10 season is easily within reach and for a back-up middle infielder or even just some cheap power for your MI slot, Semien is a great choice.

Hernan Perez, OF MIL (-10.4%) – He was a great source for cheap steals last year, but with Travis Shaw working at third base and Keon Broxton still penciled in as the starter in center field, Perez has been relegated to back-up duty once again. Broxton is still recovering from a wrist ailment and he is likely to miss most, if not all of spring training, so while that might boost Perez’ value early, he isn’t likely to hold onto the gig full-time. Something to remember on Draft Day.

J.A. Happ, SP TOR (-9.6%) – Perhaps there are more who share my way of thinking in that one day Happ will wake up and remember that he’s J.A. Happ. The home ballpark is working against him and adjustments will be made. At least I think they will be made. I just can’t get onboard with Happ and expect this drop to continue depending on what happens in spring games.

Other notable fallers include: Charlie Blackmon (-9.0%), Michael Brantley (-8.9%), Trevor Story (-8.7%)

Rookies

For now, the fantasy community seems to have reined in some of its enthusiasm for rookies, at least with regard to re-draft leagues. However, their ADP is, overall, higher in the Army than it is in the NFBC which is something to think about when you’re rounding out your squad during the later rounds. Andrew Benintendi is the first rookie off draft boards and his ADP is hovering around the 118-mark (134.56 in NFBC). He’s been a reach for some, being drafted as high as 67^th, but most people seem to be holding off until his batting order position is solidified more.

After that, we see the likes of Dansby Swanson (186.32), Hunter Renfroe (192.68) and Manuel Margot (201.23) and then it stays quiet until the 260’s where you’ll find Jharel Cotton (267.26) and Yoan Moncada (270.55). The rookie ADP is definitely something to monitor as we head into spring training here. Glowing reports, position battle victories and what not all affect ADP and it’s important to remember that spring hype is just that. We know the skills of these players. We know the opportunities they will and won’t have. Don’t be fooled by rookie-loving exuberance. You are not finding the next Mike Trout, people. That comes along once in a very long while.

Closer Trends & Runs

While the fantasy baseball community remains split on whether to invest in closers or let them fall and chase saves on the waiver wire, it’s obviously important to study the draft trends of the position for both sides. If you like to wait on closers, then you can certainly map out a strategy which targets specific hitters or starters where you begin to see closer runs. If you like to invest, then you need to see just how large an investment you need to make or if you can scale it back a little and still be comfortable with your choices.

For the most part, closers are currently on an upward trend. As you saw above, Watson is now stepping into the limelight more in fantasy drafts and, while the growth isn’t exponential, the majority of closers are being taken earlier and earlier over the past two weeks. The “Big 3” – Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Zach Britton – have all moved up to the mid-to-high 60’s with the next tier coming off in and around the 100-mark in drafts. From there, the next group seems to trickle into the near the 120-mark while there seems to be a strong run between the high-150s and low 170s.

Keep a watchful eye on some of the lesser known closers as they seem to be ignored in most drafts. Brandon Kintzler, the Twins closer, is expected to open the season with the job and the highest he’s gone in any of these drafts is at pick number 286. Fernando Rodney, Neftali Feliz, Shawn Kelley and even Adam Ottavino are all falling late. Their job security isn’t all that great, but it’s better to draft one of them with your late reserve picks than some of the other garbage we see being drafted.

Mock Draft Army ADP Trend Report