No quirky lead in lines. Time to jump right into last week. A lot of players had two starts last week. Trevor Cahill headlined the 10-12 team league streamers and he sort of delivered. In his first start of the week at home against the Giants he pitched 6.2 innings and struck out 8 in a winning effort. His 2nd start didn’t go nearly as well as he got knocked around and didn’t even get out of the 4th inning. Eduardo Rodriguez will ultimately only get 1 start in this long week and he went 5.1 innings striking out 8, while walking 4. It wasn’t an ideal start. The speed on his fastball dropped significantly as the game progressed and he came away with a no-decision. His “second start” was pushed into Week 17 and since he’s technically above the 50% cutoff he won’t be included in the next section.
The jury is still out on Ariel Miranda for last week. As expected he got knocked around by Houston. He gave up 5 earned runs in 5.2 innings of work. But the quality matchup comes this weekend against the Yankees, which is the matchup he was recommended for. Ian Kennedy was both hit AND miss this week. He pitched well in his 1st start against Texas and struggled (badly) in his 2nd start against Chicago. He pitched 4 innings in a no-decision effort. Jhoulys Chacin, for a desperation play, did quite well. He played the Giants twice and pitched 12 innings and struck out 8. He didn’t lose either game so for a desperation recommendation he was just fine. If you’ve kept an eye on Charlie Morton, make sure you keep that eye on him because he’ll be listed below!
Time to swallow pride and own up to the deeper league calls. Luis Castillo will be mentioned below. He wasn’t stellar, but fantasy owners should remain committed to him. Read on to find out why. Sure enough Paul Blackburn was recommended for the 2nd start, and of course he did better in his first start against Cleveland. His strikeout potential isn’t high, but he’s a guy you keep an eye on for quality starts. Andrew Moore and Blake Snell were busts. Moore’s highly touted depth into games was cut short and Snell continued to disappoint.
10-12 Team Leagues
C.C. Sabathia (NYY) – Since returning from the DL, Sabathia had one bad outing, but he’s been solid otherwise. Next week he draws a home start against Tampa Bay and he’s already 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA against them so far this season. Sabathia’s home/road splits aren’t favorable for this matchup, but the Rays do struggle against lefties. No team in baseball has struck out more against lefties than Tampa. They’re slashing just .238/.318/.390 against lefties on the year and could have their share of struggles against the big southpaw next week.
Charlie Morton (HOU) – Morton’s ownership has spiked a bit as he’s now around 40% owned so he may or may not be available in your league. In his last start he gave up four earned runs in 6.2 innings of work. It wasn’t an ideal start by any means, but he didn’t walk anyone. Has he looked shaky since coming off the DL? Sure. He gets a road start against the Phillies next week and though his road splits aren’t great like Sabathia, the Phillies offense struggles at home. They’re slashing just .249/.315/.422 at home and this could be a nice start for Morton to turn things around. Oddly enough his big Achilles heel has been the shift. When there’s no shift opponents are hitting .247/.247/.322 with a wOBA of .241 but when there is a shift in play opponents are hitting .352/.352/.495 with a .359 wOBA. Hopefully this is a trend the Astros catch wind of and limit the defensive shift with Morton on the mound against a weak Phillies lineup.
Collin McHugh (HOU) – McHugh hasn’t pitched at all in 2017, he’ll be making his season debut against Baltimore Saturday July 22nd and he’ll certainly be worth following for fantasy purposes. He’s around 30-40% owned in most leagues so if you need help with pitching he might be a guy to claim and use the rest of the way. In his 3 years prior to 2017 he accumulated a 3.71 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP. He’s a decent source for strikeouts, and it’s very rare that you find a proven pitcher on waivers this late in the season. For now he’s a streamer, but if he does well against Baltimore and then next week against Detroit then his ownership will jump heavily.
R.A. Dickey (ATL) – Hard to believe Dickey is being included here, but he’s worth a mention because he gets two starts next week, both are on the road in Arizona and Philadelphia. You’re insane if you use him in the first matchup against the Diamondbacks in Chase Field, but the 2nd start to end the week could be useful. Since June 19th Dickey has a 1.80 ERA and a very impressive 4.7% HR/FB ratio. Expect that to jump in the start in Chase Field, but he’s been solid over the past month. He’s gone at least 6 innings in each of his last 6 starts and he’s only surrendered 2 home runs. He’s also very good at keeping runners in check. Over the last month he’s thrown over to first base 26 times which is 2nd of 175 qualified starting pitchers. Since the start of 2016 he leads all of baseball with picking off 6 runners. Despite his slow delivery he knows he needs to keep players in check. He’s a decent option against the Phillies.
Desperation Play of the Week… Jhoulys Chacin (SD) – Oddly enough Jhoulys The Terrible makes the streamers piece for the 2nd week in a row. He fared pretty well in his two starts against the Giants last week so he could be due for a rough outing in the not-too-distant future. Either way he gets two more home starts next week against the Mets and then the Pirates. The Mets actually hit the ball pretty well on the road so they could be avoided here. The Pirates are better on the road than at home, but they can still be targeted for this matchup. Chacin’s home/road splits are so drastically in favor of his home starts so the numbers support him as a streamer next week.
Don’t Forget About... Luis Castillo (CIN) and Mike Foltynewicz (ATL) – It’s baffling that these two guys hold such low ownership. Castillo has made 6 starts this year against Washington (twice), Arizona (twice), Milwaukee, and on the road against the Rockies. He holds a 3.86 ERA and a ridiculous 11.06 K/9. He’s had nothing but terrible matchups in his young career and he’s handled himself quite well. There’s no point in writing up Castillo and Folty because they’ve been featured so much and there’s no need to sound like a broken record. Folty’s prone to occasionally getting blown up, but he’s a quality start machine at the same time. The walks are concerning, but since June 18th he holds a 2.95 ERA and an 8.5% HR/FB ratio.
Both these guys can always be streamed, but if they don’t make the piece going forward always keep an eye on their ownership/availability. They’re both tremendous sources for strikeouts. Castillo may still even be available in deeper leagues so consider him an option there too. Remember back in the old days of Total Request Live when music videos had to be retired for making the countdown too many times? Consider this a TRL-esque retirement for Folty and Castillo. They’re gone, but never forgotten.
Deeper League Options
Patrick Corbin (ARI) – Corbin might be available in your deeper league, but he’s almost at the cutoff for deep league qualifications. He’s certainly an option in 10-12 team leagues. Fantasy owners are still a bit rough on Corbin because of a tough stretch earlier in the season. Since June 16th he owns a 2.81 ERA with a 2.89 FIP so his streak isn’t too much of a fluke. He also has 45 K’s in his last 41.2 innings of work. He’s also kept the walks to a minimum. He gets two starts next week: at home against Atlanta and on the road in St. Louis. He’s performed well enough lately that he should be owned as more than just a streamer.
Zack Wheeler and Seth Lugo (NYM) – Wheeler may be considered a bust by some, but he’s had his up’s and down’s this year. His numbers are also somewhat inflated as he had back-to-back starts about a month ago where he gave up 15 total runs. If you take away those two terrible outings he owns a 3.52 ERA. Wheeler makes the piece as a streamer because he gets a road start against the Padres next Thursday. The Padres are slashing a horrendous .236/.306/.396 at home.
Over the last 30 days Wheeler boasts a 63.8% groundball rate which is 4th among 154 qualified SP’s. This is a good matchup against a Padres team that doesn’t feature much offensive upside. Lugo, like Wheeler, gets a road start against the Padres as well which is startable for him. He also gets a road matchup against the Mariners. Despite the pitcher-friendly ballpark this might be a matchup to avoid as the M’s are a pretty solid team at home. Lugo may not be able to go too deep into games. Opponents are hitting .548 the third time through the order against Lugo and that ranks dead last amongst all qualifying SP’s. If he can get through 5 innings and be in position to win against San Diego he’s worth streaming.
Sneaky Play of the Week… Chad Kuhl (PIT) – Kuhl, like Wheeler and Lugo, gets a road start against the Padres next week. There’s no point bringing up the Padres offensive numbers (just reference the Wheeler and Lugo section). Rather the focus should be on Kuhl. The only knock against Kuhl is that he doesn’t really go deep into games. He hasn’t surrendered a HR in his last 15.2 innings of work. He has a 9.9% HR/FB ratio and you can find solace in his 4.85 ERA when compared to his 4.15 FIP.
He’s not the sexiest option, but he’s done really well since the end of May. Since then he’s had only 1 start where he gave up 4 earned runs or more and he holds a 3.47 ERA in that span. His fastball has great velocity (averages around 96 mph) and he’s even hit 100+ mph 7 times this year. Surprisingly that ranks 5th out of 175 qualified SP’s this season. His curveball and slider are also pretty effective too. Opponents have a line drive rate of 2.7% on low curves and sliders, which ranks 1st out of 109 SP’s. His ownership is very low, but he’s a very intriguing streaming option next week.