2017 MLB Draft Guide Player Profile: Adam Duvall

Adam Duvall

Age: 28 years old

Bats/Throws:  R/R

Height/Weight: 6’1”, 220  lbs

Position: Outfield

THE NUMBERS

As a minor leaguer Duvall always mashed. Per 162 games in the minors he posted a line of .268-34-114-103 with a .841 OPS. Yep, mashed did he. Still, he had a hard time convincing big league teams he was worth a spot in the lineup. Note that he’s already 28 years old.

THE SKILLS

It only happens a couple of times a year, tops. By “it” I mean a guy coming out of complete anonymity to smack 30 homers with more than 100 RBI. No one was on this guy last year. Last year in Tout Wars, a 15-team mixed league, he wasn’t even drafted. I added him for $81, out of $1,000 FAAB, after the third week of the season, and yes, that was a hell of an add. Point being, 15 experts all passed on Duvall at the start of last season, so there’s about a 99.5-percent chance that, unless you were drafting in Cincinnati, he was on waivers in your league as well. Last season, oh, what a find!

Who is Duvall? Let’s talk to his strength – power.

Duvall can mash. He did in the minors and he did last season. Heck, he hit eight homers his first 137 at-bats in part-time work in 2014 and 2015 at the big league level. The main reason for the homers is his approach – he lifts everything into the air. Last season Duvall had a 46.7 percent fly ball rate a half point above his 46.2 career rate. That’s a lot of fly balls (the league average is about 35 percent). When you lift the ball that much the homers are bound to follow if you have any oomph in your swing. Duvall has that. Last season his HR/FB ratio was 17.8 percent, just below his 18.2 percent career mark. That 17.8 percent mark was 41^st in baseball by the way. In fact, Duvall drove the ball so well last season that he posted a .257 Isolated Power mark, the 13^th best mark in baseball. It’s a huge number. That’s what happens when you hit 33 homers and back it up with 31 doubles and six triples.

The runs batted in mark last season, 103, was/is a big number. One of the reasons for it was the fact that when there were men in scoring position last season Duvall mashed at an even higher level than he did overall. He hit only .262 with runners in scoring position, but numbers like a .607 SLG and .914 OPS are elite numbers, and he posted them with RISP. It’s fair to ponder if he will be able to repeat that immense level of success in 2017. It seems unlikely.

Now the concerns, and they are substantial.

The first, and most obvious concern, is cost. Duvall, in 12 months, has gone from a waiver-wire addition to player folks will be drafting expecting another 30 homer season. Therefore, the opportunity cost on Duvall is way down this season and it’s quite possible that he could be over drafted in many leagues.

As for the skills, there are big concerns there too.

Duvall walked 41 times last season in 150 games. That’s awful. He doesn’t walk enough which leads to issues with his ability to consistently get on base. I’ll come back to that.

Duvall swings and misses a lot with a 12.9 swinging strike rate for his career. Last season the mark was 12.5 percent as he struck out 164 times in 552 at-bats. We live with that in this day and age, the deal we make with the devil for the power, but it’s still not something that makes me feel warm and fuzzy. He swings and misses a lot.

Let me be clear and just say it. I don’t have a strong affinity for players who don’t walk and strikeout a lot. They aren’t very refined hitters, can more easily go into funks, can be pitched to and are extremely unlikely to produce in the batting average category.

Duvall hit .241 last season and he’s hit .234 through 689 big league at-bats. Given his overall game there isn’t much hope for improvement either. Some facts.

1 – Duvall had a 0.25 BB/K ratio last season. Only two men who had a mark that low hit .277: Starling Marte (.311) and Josh Harrison (.283).

2 – Duvall had a 46.7 fly ball ratio last season. That mark was 7^th highest in baseball. Here are the batting averages of those men: Todd Frazier (.225), Chris Carter (.222), Brian Dozier (.268), Salvador Perez (.247), Evan Longoria (.273) and Nolan Arenado (.294).

3 – Duvall had a 0.72 GB/FB ratio last season. That was the 8^th lowest in baseball.

Too many fly balls, not enough grounders and line drives, for him to contribute in the batting average category.

Think of it like this. Let’s say instead of 33 homers that Duvall hits 29 homers, a totally reasonable number. That’s four less hits. If he has four less homers this season but the same amount of singles, doubles, triples and at-bats he would hit .234. Guess was his career mark is again? That’s right. It’s .234.

Let’s not neglect to discuss some split data, as well as that inability to get on base. 

Against lefties he’s hit .220 with a .708 OPS in his career. Against righties the numbers are .238 and .793. Neither set is very good. The biggest difference is in the slugging. Against lefties he has a .412 SLG and .192 Isolated Power. Against righties the numbers are .504 and .266. He’s a pretty useless hitter against lefties.

Finally, and I’m sorry to be the bearer of this news, the guy has a .291 career OBP. That’s pathetic. Last season the mark was .297, a mark that was only better than nine men who had 500 plate appearances. Some of those names include Alexei Ramirez, Adeiny Hechavarria, Alcides Escobar and Marvin Gonzalez. The only other man in that list of 10, Duvall included, to scored 65 runs was Rougned Odor. Another way. Eight of 10 guys with a mark of .297 or lower in the OBP category last season failed to score 65 runs.

PLAYING TIME

No doubt that Duvall will be playing every day and hitting in the middle of the Reds order. Bank on it.  

CONCLUSION

The guy has power, a position in the middle of the batting order, and a spot in the daily lineup in a good park to hit in (4^th best for homers according to Park Factors). He’s also a batting average killer and the bar for success is light years higher than it was last year.

10-Team Mixed: I’m going to say it. He’s barely startable here. No speed, horrible batting average, and likely regression in the counting categories. What if he starts off 2017 the way 2016 ended (Duvall hit .212 with a .673 in the last month last season)? If he does that to start the year, does he lose some playing time?

12-Team Mixed: The lack of refinement is concerning. He’s really nothing other than a fourth outfielder here, one with considerable downside that needs to be planned around (i.e. building outfield depth).

15-Team Mixed: How willing are you to take on this type of hitter? At a certain point we all need the counting category numbers, but there are obvious risks.

NL-Only League: Twenty-five homers, with health and playing time, seems very doable. It comes down to cost with Duvall. If you can pay for a .235-25 season, do it. If you have to pay for a .255-30 season proceed with some trepidation.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray on the channel Sunday nights at 9 PM EDT PM. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).